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Player Props

2026 · week 5
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 1.8M unseen player-games (2018-2025); no band off by more than 5 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415
Stat
PosTeamSort
2,065 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Joey AguilarQBTENNvs AUB10/3pass yds≈base271.9
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
2Josh HooverQBTCUvs BYU10/3pass yds≈base270.1
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
3Jayden MaiavaQBUSCvs WASH10/3pass yds≈base250.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
4Jalen KitnaQBUABvs SAM10/3pass yds≈base250
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
5Julian SayinQBOSU@ IOWA10/3pass yds≈base249.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
6Caden VeltkampQBFAUvs TXSO10/3pass yds≈base248.5
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
7Drew MestemakerQBUNT@ TLSA10/2pass yds≈base243.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
8Kevin JenningsQBSMUvs BC10/3pass yds≈base239.5
225+
59%
250+
49%
275+
38%
300+
29%
9Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBCAL@ UNLV10/3pass yds≈base235.5
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
10Micah AlejadoQBHAWvs SJSU10/3pass yds≈base235.1
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
11Brad JacksonQBTXST@ SDSU10/4pass yds≈base232
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
12Malik WashingtonQBMD@ NEB10/3pass yds≈base231.7
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
13Owen McCownQBUTSA@ RICE10/3pass yds≈base231.5
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
14Marcel ReedQBTA&Mvs ARK10/3pass yds≈base226.2
200+
63%
225+
53%
250+
43%
275+
34%
15CJ CarrQBND@ UNC10/3pass yds≈base223.7
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
16Jaylen RaynorQBARST@ UL10/3pass yds≈base223.6
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
17Brendan SorsbyQBCIN@ ARIZ10/3pass yds≈base223.5
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
18Noah FifitaQBARIZvs CIN10/3pass yds≈base222.8
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
19Nick MinicucciQBDELvs LIB10/2pass yds≈base222.7
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
20CJ BaileyQBNCSUvs LOU10/3pass yds≈base221.5
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
21Bear BachmeierQBBYU@ TCU10/3pass yds≈base221.1
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
22Anthony ColandreaQBUNLVvs CAL10/3pass yds≈base219.1
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
23Steve AngeliQBSYR@ CONN10/3pass yds≈base212.1
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
48%
250+
38%
24Bryce UnderwoodQBMICH@ MINN10/3pass yds≈base210.5
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
47%
250+
37%
25Maddux MadsenQBBOISvs USU10/3pass yds≈base208.1
175+
65%
200+
56%
225+
46%
250+
36%
26Dylan RaiolaQBNEBvs MD10/3pass yds≈base206.6
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
27Sam LeavittQBASUvs BAY10/3pass yds≈base206.4
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
28Maalik MurphyQBORST@ CSU10/3pass yds≈base205.3
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
29Gunner StocktonQBUGAvs VAN10/3pass yds≈base205.1
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
30Colton JosephQBODU@ GAST10/3pass yds≈base203.5
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
31Conner WeigmanQBHOUvs UCF10/3pass yds≈base203.1
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
32Jack LayneQBUNMvs UTEP10/3pass yds≈base202.4
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
33Rocco BechtQBISUvs WVU10/3pass yds≈base202.2
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
34Demond Williams Jr.QBWASH@ USC10/3pass yds≈base201.4
175+
62%
200+
52%
225+
43%
250+
34%
35Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQBCSUvs ORST10/3pass yds≈base198.8
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
33%
36Drake LindseyQBMINNvs MICH10/3pass yds≈base198.2
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
37Baylor HayesQBTLSAvs UNT10/2pass yds≈base198
175+
60%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
38LaNorris SellersQBSCvs UK10/3pass yds≈base197.1
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
39Aidan ChilesQBMSU@ WIS10/3pass yds≈base193.6
175+
59%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
40Dylan LonerganQBBC@ SMU10/3pass yds≈base193.3
175+
58%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
41Eli HolsteinQBPITT@ VT10/2pass yds≈base192.4
175+
58%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
42JC French IVQBGASO@ CCU10/3pass yds≈base191.1
175+
57%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
43Ethan VaskoQBLIB@ DEL10/2pass yds≈base190.7
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
39%
250+
30%
44Alonza Barnett IIIQBJMUvs MRSH10/3pass yds≈base190.1
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
30%
45DJ LagwayQBFLA@ MIZ10/3pass yds≈base188.6
175+
56%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
29%
46Jaxon PotterQBWSUvs FRES10/4pass yds≈base187.9
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
38%
250+
29%
47Rodney Tisdale Jr.QBWKU@ NMSU10/2pass yds≈base183.8
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
44%
225+
36%
48Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQBMRSH@ JMU10/3pass yds≈base180.1
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
35%
49Dru DeShieldsQBKENTvs OHIO10/3pass yds≈base179.6
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
34%
50Tayven JacksonQBUCF@ HOU10/3pass yds≈base179.3
150+
59%
175+
52%
200+
42%
225+
34%
51Cutter BoleyQBUK@ SC10/3pass yds≈base176.8
150+
58%
175+
50%
200+
41%
225+
33%
52Gio LopezQBUNCvs ND10/3pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
53Blake BakerQBLTvs ARMY10/3pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
54Keelon RussellQBALA@ MSST10/3pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
55Luke McNultyQBCLTvs MEM10/3pass yds≈base169.6
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
37%
225+
30%
56Blake HorvathQBNAVY@ AF10/3pass yds≈base167.9
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
29%
57Julian LewisQBCOLOvs TTU10/3pass yds≈base167.5
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
36%
225+
29%
58Liam SzarkaQBAFvs NAVY10/3pass yds≈base165.2
150+
51%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
59Jackson ArnoldQBAUB@ TENN10/3pass yds≈base165.1
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
60Beau PribulaQBMIZvs FLA10/3pass yds≈base164.3
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
27%
61Roman GaglianoQBMTSU@ KU10/3pass yds≈base163.6
150+
49%
175+
42%
200+
34%
225+
27%
62Jayden DenegalQBSDSUvs TXST10/4pass yds≈base162
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
63Michael Van Buren Jr.QBLSUvs MCN10/3pass yds≈base161.4
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
64Bishop DavenportQBUSAvs ULM10/3pass yds≈base160.2
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
65Carson ConklinQBFRES@ WSU10/4pass yds≈base159.9
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
66Ryan BrowneQBPUR@ ILL10/3pass yds≈base157.4
125+
53%
150+
45%
175+
38%
200+
31%
67Aidan LefflerQBBALLvs TOL10/3pass yds≈base155.4
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
68Scotty Fox Jr.QBWVU@ ISU10/3pass yds≈base155.3
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
69Baron MayQBBGSU@ M-OH10/3pass yds≈base151.6
125+
48%
150+
41%
175+
34%
200+
28%
70Thomas GotkowskiQBM-OHvs BGSU10/3pass yds≈base149.8
140+
43%
150+
40%
160+
38%
170+
35%
71Skyler LocklearQBUTEP@ UNM10/3pass yds≈base148.9
140+
42%
150+
39%
160+
37%
170+
34%
72KJ JacksonQBARK@ TA&M10/3pass yds≈base147.6
140+
41%
150+
39%
160+
36%
170+
34%
73Aidan ArmentaQBULM@ USA10/3pass yds≈base146.3
140+
40%
150+
38%
160+
35%
170+
33%
74Parker AwadQBNMSUvs WKU10/2pass yds≈base143.7
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
34%
75Bekkem KritzaQBPSU@ NU10/3pass yds≈base143.2
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
76Danny O'NeilQBWISvs MSU10/3pass yds≈base142.8
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
77Deyon BatisteQBWYO@ NDSU10/3pass yds≈base141.6
130+
39%
140+
37%
150+
35%
160+
32%
78AJ SuraceQBRUTGvs IU10/4pass yds≈base139.7
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
79Cameran BrownQBGASTvs ODU10/3pass yds≈base138.4
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
80Lunch WinfieldQBULvs ARST10/3pass yds≈base137.3
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
81Brian PlummerQBBUFvs WMU10/3pass yds≈base136.8
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
82Nick DemchukQBAKR@ CMU10/3pass yds≈base136.5
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
83Trent PearmanQBCLEMvs MIA10/3pass yds≈base135.6
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
84Will HammondQBTTU@ COLO10/3pass yds≈base134.1
120+
39%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
85Brady AllenQBLOU@ NCSU10/3pass yds≈base132.5
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
86Jaylen KingQBFSUvs UVA10/3pass yds≈base132.2
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
87Trey DrakeQBNDSUvs WYO10/3pass yds≈base130.9
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
88Blaze BerlowitzQBVAN@ UGA10/3pass yds≈base129.2
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
89Jace StuckeyQBEMU@ MASS10/3pass yds≈base127.7
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
90Broc LowryQBWMU@ BUF10/3pass yds≈base127
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
91Camren BoykinQBTEM@ USF10/3pass yds≈base124.2
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
92Daniel KaelinQBUVA@ FSU10/3pass yds≈base124
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
93Locklan HewlettQBUSFvs TEM10/3pass yds≈base123.9
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
94Nick EversQBCONNvs SYR10/3pass yds≈base123.7
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
95CJ LeeQBSJSU@ HAW10/3pass yds≈base122.3
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
96CJ TillerQBUSU@ BOIS10/3pass yds≈base121.3
110+
38%
120+
36%
130+
34%
140+
33%
97Grant JordanQBMASSvs EMU10/3pass yds≈base118.4
110+
37%
120+
36%
130+
34%
140+
32%
98Nate BennettQBBAY@ ASU10/3pass yds≈base117.2
110+
37%
120+
36%
130+
34%
140+
32%
99Charlie MirerQBSTAN@ WAKE10/3pass yds≈base116.4
110+
37%
120+
35%
130+
33%
140+
31%
100Nikao SmithQBMIA@ CLEM10/3pass yds≈base114.8
100+
38%
110+
36%
120+
35%
130+
33%
100 of 2,065
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.