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Player Props

2026 · week 8
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 1.8M unseen player-games (2018-2025); no band off by more than 5 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415
Stat
PosTeamSort
2,014 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Joey AguilarQBTENN@ SC10/24pass yds≈base271.9
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
2Josh HooverQBTCUvs WVU10/24pass yds≈base270.1
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
3Jayden MaiavaQBUSC@ WIS10/24pass yds≈base250.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
4Trinidad ChamblissQBMISS@ TEX10/24pass yds≈base249.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
5Caden VeltkampQBFAUvs RICE10/24pass yds≈base248.5
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
6Drew MestemakerQBUNT@ NAVY10/24pass yds≈base243.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
7Kevin JenningsQBSMUvs CAL10/24pass yds≈base239.5
225+
59%
250+
49%
275+
38%
300+
29%
8Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBCAL@ SMU10/24pass yds≈base235.5
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
9Micah AlejadoQBHAW@ NIU10/24pass yds≈base235.1
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
10Darian MensahQBDUKE@ UVA10/23pass yds≈base233.2
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
11Brad JacksonQBTXSTvs USU10/24pass yds≈base232
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
12Owen McCownQBUTSA@ TULN10/24pass yds≈base231.5
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
13Marcel ReedQBTA&M@ ALA10/24pass yds≈base226.2
200+
63%
225+
53%
250+
43%
275+
34%
14Jaylen RaynorQBARSTvs GAST10/24pass yds≈base223.6
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
15Brendan SorsbyQBCINvs TTU10/24pass yds≈base223.5
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
16Noah FifitaQBARIZvs ISU10/24pass yds≈base222.8
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
17Nick MinicucciQBDELvs MOST10/20pass yds≈base222.7
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
18John MateerQBOU@ MSST10/24pass yds≈base221.7
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
33%
19CJ BaileyQBNCSU@ STAN10/24pass yds≈base221.5
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
20Bear BachmeierQBBYU@ UCF10/24pass yds≈base221.1
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
21Arch ManningQBTEXvs MISS10/24pass yds≈base220.2
200+
60%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
22Dante MooreQBORE@ ILL10/24pass yds≈base219.2
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
23Jake RetzlaffQBTULNvs UTSA10/24pass yds≈base217.6
200+
59%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
31%
24Steve AngeliQBSYR@ UNC10/24pass yds≈base212.1
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
48%
250+
38%
25Bryce UnderwoodQBMICHvs IU10/24pass yds≈base210.5
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
47%
250+
37%
26Maddux MadsenQBBOIS@ WSU10/24pass yds≈base208.1
175+
65%
200+
56%
225+
46%
250+
36%
27Devon DampierQBUTAHvs HOU10/24pass yds≈base207.3
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
46%
250+
36%
28Sam LeavittQBASUvs KSU10/24pass yds≈base206.4
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
29Colton JosephQBODU@ LT10/24pass yds≈base203.5
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
30Conner WeigmanQBHOU@ UTAH10/24pass yds≈base203.1
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
31Jack LayneQBUNMvs NDSU10/24pass yds≈base202.4
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
32Rocco BechtQBISU@ ARIZ10/24pass yds≈base202.2
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
33Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQBCSUvs SDSU10/25pass yds≈base198.8
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
33%
34Drake LindseyQBMINNvs IOWA10/24pass yds≈base198.2
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
35Baylor HayesQBTLSAvs ARMY10/24pass yds≈base198
175+
60%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
36LaNorris SellersQBSCvs TENN10/24pass yds≈base197.1
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
37Avery JohnsonQBKSU@ ASU10/24pass yds≈base196.9
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
38Nico IamaleavaQBUCLAvs MSU10/24pass yds≈base195.1
175+
59%
200+
50%
225+
40%
250+
31%
39Aidan ChilesQBMSU@ UCLA10/24pass yds≈base193.6
175+
59%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
40Dylan LonerganQBBC@ GT10/24pass yds≈base193.3
175+
58%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
41Eli HolsteinQBPITT@ MIA10/24pass yds≈base192.4
175+
58%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
42Ethan VaskoQBLIB@ KENN10/22pass yds≈base190.7
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
39%
250+
30%
43Alonza Barnett IIIQBJMU@ APP10/22pass yds≈base190.1
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
30%
44Jaxon PotterQBWSUvs BOIS10/24pass yds≈base187.9
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
38%
250+
29%
45JJ KohlQBAPPvs JMU10/22pass yds≈base187.5
150+
64%
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
37%
46Amari OdomQBKENNvs LIB10/22pass yds≈base184.3
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
45%
225+
36%
47Keyone JenkinsQBFIUvs MTSU10/20pass yds≈base182.7
150+
61%
175+
53%
200+
44%
225+
36%
48Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQBMRSHvs USA10/20pass yds≈base180.1
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
35%
49Dru DeShieldsQBKENTvs AKR10/24pass yds≈base179.6
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
34%
50Tayven JacksonQBUCFvs BYU10/24pass yds≈base179.3
150+
59%
175+
52%
200+
42%
225+
34%
51Cutter BoleyQBUKvs VAN10/24pass yds≈base176.8
150+
58%
175+
50%
200+
41%
225+
33%
52Gio LopezQBUNCvs SYR10/24pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
53Blake BakerQBLTvs ODU10/24pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
54Zane FloresQBOKSTvs COLO10/24pass yds≈base171.6
150+
55%
175+
47%
200+
39%
225+
31%
55Keelon RussellQBALAvs TA&M10/24pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
56Goose CrowderQBTROYvs ULM10/24pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
57Blake HorvathQBNAVYvs UNT10/24pass yds≈base167.9
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
29%
58Julian LewisQBCOLO@ OKST10/24pass yds≈base167.5
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
36%
225+
29%
59Jackson ProctorQBNIUvs HAW10/24pass yds≈base165.9
150+
51%
175+
44%
200+
35%
225+
28%
60Liam SzarkaQBAF@ WYO10/24pass yds≈base165.2
150+
51%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
61Jackson ArnoldQBAUBvs LSU10/24pass yds≈base165.1
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
62Roman GaglianoQBMTSU@ FIU10/20pass yds≈base163.6
150+
49%
175+
42%
200+
34%
225+
27%
63Jayden DenegalQBSDSU@ CSU10/25pass yds≈base162
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
64Michael Van Buren Jr.QBLSU@ AUB10/24pass yds≈base161.4
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
65Bishop DavenportQBUSA@ MRSH10/20pass yds≈base160.2
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
66Aidan LefflerQBBALLvs SAC10/24pass yds≈base155.4
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
67Scotty Fox Jr.QBWVU@ TCU10/24pass yds≈base155.3
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
68Kaden MartiranoQBNEVvs SJSU10/24pass yds≈base153.7
125+
50%
150+
43%
175+
36%
200+
29%
69Baron MayQBBGSU@ BUF10/24pass yds≈base151.6
125+
48%
150+
41%
175+
34%
200+
28%
70Thomas GotkowskiQBM-OH@ CMU10/24pass yds≈base149.8
140+
43%
150+
40%
160+
38%
170+
35%
71Aidan ArmentaQBULM@ TROY10/24pass yds≈base146.3
140+
40%
150+
38%
160+
35%
170+
33%
72Parker AwadQBNMSU@ SHSU10/22pass yds≈base143.7
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
34%
73Danny O'NeilQBWISvs USC10/24pass yds≈base142.8
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
74Deyon BatisteQBWYOvs AF10/24pass yds≈base141.6
130+
39%
140+
37%
150+
35%
160+
32%
75AJ SuraceQBRUTG@ NU10/24pass yds≈base139.7
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
76Cardell WilliamsQBSAC@ BALL10/24pass yds≈base139.5
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
77Cameran BrownQBGAST@ ARST10/24pass yds≈base138.4
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
78Lunch WinfieldQBUL@ USM10/24pass yds≈base137.3
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
79Deuce BaileyQBMOST@ DEL10/20pass yds≈base137.1
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
80Brian PlummerQBBUFvs BGSU10/24pass yds≈base136.8
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
81Nick DemchukQBAKR@ KENT10/24pass yds≈base136.5
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
82Trent PearmanQBCLEMvs VT10/24pass yds≈base135.6
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
83Will HammondQBTTU@ CIN10/24pass yds≈base134.1
120+
39%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
84Hunter WatsonQBSHSUvs NMSU10/22pass yds≈base132.9
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
85Trey DrakeQBNDSU@ UNM10/24pass yds≈base130.9
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
86John WhiteQBUSMvs UL10/24pass yds≈base130.8
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
87Blaze BerlowitzQBVAN@ UK10/24pass yds≈base129.2
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
88John David BlackQBECU@ MEM10/22pass yds≈base128.2
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
89Jace StuckeyQBEMU@ OHIO10/24pass yds≈base127.7
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
90Aaron PhiloQBGTvs BC10/24pass yds≈base127.1
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
91Broc LowryQBWMU@ TOL10/24pass yds≈base127
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
92Daniel KaelinQBUVAvs DUKE10/23pass yds≈base124
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
93Nick EversQBCONNvs MASS10/23pass yds≈base123.7
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
94CJ LeeQBSJSU@ NEV10/24pass yds≈base122.3
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
95CJ TillerQBUSU@ TXST10/24pass yds≈base121.3
110+
38%
120+
36%
130+
34%
140+
33%
96Grant JordanQBMASS@ CONN10/23pass yds≈base118.4
110+
37%
120+
36%
130+
34%
140+
32%
97Nate BennettQBBAY@ KU10/24pass yds≈base117.2
110+
37%
120+
36%
130+
34%
140+
32%
98Charlie MirerQBSTANvs NCSU10/24pass yds≈base116.4
110+
37%
120+
35%
130+
33%
140+
31%
99Nikao SmithQBMIAvs PITT10/24pass yds≈base114.8
100+
38%
110+
36%
120+
35%
130+
33%
100Alberto MendozaQBIU@ MICH10/24pass yds≈base114.8
100+
38%
110+
36%
120+
35%
130+
33%
100 of 2,014
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.