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Player Props

2026 · week 6
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 1.8M unseen player-games (2018-2025); no band off by more than 5 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415
Stat
PosTeamSort
2,083 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Joey AguilarQBTENN@ ARK10/10pass yds≈base271.9
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
2Jayden MaiavaQBUSC@ PSU10/10pass yds≈base250.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
3Jalen KitnaQBUAB@ MEM10/10pass yds≈base250
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
4Trinidad ChamblissQBMISS@ VAN10/10pass yds≈base249.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
5Julian SayinQBOSUvs MD10/10pass yds≈base249.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
6Drew MestemakerQBUNTvs CLT10/10pass yds≈base243.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
7Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBCALvs VT10/10pass yds≈base235.5
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
8Micah AlejadoQBHAW@ ASU10/10pass yds≈base235.1
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
9Darian MensahQBDUKE@ GT10/10pass yds≈base233.2
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
10Malik WashingtonQBMD@ OSU10/10pass yds≈base231.7
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
11Owen McCownQBUTSAvs USF10/8pass yds≈base231.5
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
12Marcel ReedQBTA&M@ MIZ10/10pass yds≈base226.2
200+
63%
225+
53%
250+
43%
275+
34%
13CJ CarrQBNDvs STAN10/10pass yds≈base223.7
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
14Jaylen RaynorQBARSTvs USA10/8pass yds≈base223.6
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
15Noah FifitaQBARIZ@ WVU10/10pass yds≈base222.8
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
16John MateerQBOUvs TEX10/10pass yds≈base221.7
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
33%
17CJ BaileyQBNCSUvs WAKE10/10pass yds≈base221.5
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
18Bear BachmeierQBBYUvs ISU10/10pass yds≈base221.1
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
19Arch ManningQBTEX@ OU10/10pass yds≈base220.2
200+
60%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
20Dante MooreQBOREvs UCLA10/10pass yds≈base219.2
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
21Anthony ColandreaQBUNLVvs NDSU10/10pass yds≈base219.1
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
22Jake RetzlaffQBTULN@ ARMY10/10pass yds≈base217.6
200+
59%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
31%
23Steve AngeliQBSYR@ UVA10/10pass yds≈base212.1
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
48%
250+
38%
24Maddux MadsenQBBOIS@ FRES10/11pass yds≈base208.1
175+
65%
200+
56%
225+
46%
250+
36%
25Devon DampierQBUTAHvs KU10/10pass yds≈base207.3
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
46%
250+
36%
26Dylan RaiolaQBNEBvs IU10/10pass yds≈base206.6
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
27Sam LeavittQBASUvs HAW10/10pass yds≈base206.4
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
28Maalik MurphyQBORSTvs SDSU10/10pass yds≈base205.3
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
29Gunner StocktonQBUGA@ ALA10/10pass yds≈base205.1
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
30Colton JosephQBODU@ APP10/10pass yds≈base203.5
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
31Conner WeigmanQBHOU@ KSU10/10pass yds≈base203.1
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
32Rocco BechtQBISU@ BYU10/10pass yds≈base202.2
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
33Demond Williams Jr.QBWASHvs IOWA10/10pass yds≈base201.4
175+
62%
200+
52%
225+
43%
250+
34%
34Drake LindseyQBMINN@ PUR10/10pass yds≈base198.2
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
35Baylor HayesQBTLSA@ NAVY10/10pass yds≈base198
175+
60%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
36LaNorris SellersQBSC@ FLA10/10pass yds≈base197.1
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
37Avery JohnsonQBKSUvs HOU10/10pass yds≈base196.9
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
38Nico IamaleavaQBUCLA@ ORE10/10pass yds≈base195.1
175+
59%
200+
50%
225+
40%
250+
31%
39Aidan ChilesQBMSUvs ILL10/10pass yds≈base193.6
175+
59%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
40Eli HolsteinQBPITTvs UNC10/10pass yds≈base192.4
175+
58%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
41JC French IVQBGASOvs JMU10/10pass yds≈base191.1
175+
57%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
42Ethan VaskoQBLIBvs SHSU10/8pass yds≈base190.7
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
39%
250+
30%
43Alonza Barnett IIIQBJMU@ GASO10/10pass yds≈base190.1
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
30%
44DJ LagwayQBFLAvs SC10/10pass yds≈base188.6
175+
56%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
29%
45Jaxon PotterQBWSU@ USU10/10pass yds≈base187.9
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
38%
250+
29%
46JJ KohlQBAPPvs ODU10/10pass yds≈base187.5
150+
64%
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
37%
47Amari OdomQBKENNvs JXST10/7pass yds≈base184.3
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
45%
225+
36%
48Rodney Tisdale Jr.QBWKUvs MOST10/8pass yds≈base183.8
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
44%
225+
36%
49Keyone JenkinsQBFIUvs NMSU10/7pass yds≈base182.7
150+
61%
175+
53%
200+
44%
225+
36%
50Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQBMRSHvs CCU10/10pass yds≈base180.1
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
35%
51Dru DeShieldsQBKENT@ WMU10/10pass yds≈base179.6
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
34%
52Tayven JacksonQBUCF@ OKST10/10pass yds≈base179.3
150+
59%
175+
52%
200+
42%
225+
34%
53Cutter BoleyQBUKvs LSU10/10pass yds≈base176.8
150+
58%
175+
50%
200+
41%
225+
33%
54Gio LopezQBUNC@ PITT10/10pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
55Blake BakerQBLTvs UL10/10pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
56Zane FloresQBOKSTvs UCF10/10pass yds≈base171.6
150+
55%
175+
47%
200+
39%
225+
31%
57Goose CrowderQBTROYvs USM10/7pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
58Keelon RussellQBALAvs UGA10/10pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
59Luke McNultyQBCLT@ UNT10/10pass yds≈base169.6
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
37%
225+
30%
60Blake HorvathQBNAVYvs TLSA10/10pass yds≈base167.9
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
29%
61Jackson ProctorQBNIUvs AF10/10pass yds≈base165.9
150+
51%
175+
44%
200+
35%
225+
28%
62Liam SzarkaQBAF@ NIU10/10pass yds≈base165.2
150+
51%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
63Beau PribulaQBMIZvs TA&M10/10pass yds≈base164.3
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
27%
64Jayden DenegalQBSDSU@ ORST10/10pass yds≈base162
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
65Michael Van Buren Jr.QBLSU@ UK10/10pass yds≈base161.4
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
66Bishop DavenportQBUSA@ ARST10/8pass yds≈base160.2
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
67Carson ConklinQBFRESvs BOIS10/11pass yds≈base159.9
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
68Ryan BrowneQBPURvs MINN10/10pass yds≈base157.4
125+
53%
150+
45%
175+
38%
200+
31%
69Aidan LefflerQBBALL@ NU10/10pass yds≈base155.4
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
70Scotty Fox Jr.QBWVUvs ARIZ10/10pass yds≈base155.3
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
71Kaden MartiranoQBNEV@ UTEP10/10pass yds≈base153.7
125+
50%
150+
43%
175+
36%
200+
29%
72Baron MayQBBGSUvs SAC10/10pass yds≈base151.6
125+
48%
150+
41%
175+
34%
200+
28%
73Thomas GotkowskiQBM-OH@ MASS10/10pass yds≈base149.8
140+
43%
150+
40%
160+
38%
170+
35%
74Skyler LocklearQBUTEPvs NEV10/10pass yds≈base148.9
140+
42%
150+
39%
160+
37%
170+
34%
75KJ JacksonQBARKvs TENN10/10pass yds≈base147.6
140+
41%
150+
39%
160+
36%
170+
34%
76Parker AwadQBNMSU@ FIU10/7pass yds≈base143.7
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
34%
77Bekkem KritzaQBPSUvs USC10/10pass yds≈base143.2
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
78Deyon BatisteQBWYO@ SJSU10/10pass yds≈base141.6
130+
39%
140+
37%
150+
35%
160+
32%
79Cardell WilliamsQBSAC@ BGSU10/10pass yds≈base139.5
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
80Lunch WinfieldQBUL@ LT10/10pass yds≈base137.3
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
81Deuce BaileyQBMOST@ WKU10/8pass yds≈base137.1
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
82Brian PlummerQBBUF@ TOL10/10pass yds≈base136.8
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
83Nick DemchukQBAKRvs EMU10/10pass yds≈base136.5
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
84Hunter WatsonQBSHSU@ LIB10/8pass yds≈base132.9
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
85Brady AllenQBLOUvs FSU10/9pass yds≈base132.5
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
86Jaylen KingQBFSU@ LOU10/9pass yds≈base132.2
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
87Trey DrakeQBNDSU@ UNLV10/10pass yds≈base130.9
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
88John WhiteQBUSM@ TROY10/7pass yds≈base130.8
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
89Blaze BerlowitzQBVANvs MISS10/10pass yds≈base129.2
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
90John David BlackQBECUvs RICE10/10pass yds≈base128.2
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
91Jace StuckeyQBEMU@ AKR10/10pass yds≈base127.7
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
92Aaron PhiloQBGTvs DUKE10/10pass yds≈base127.1
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
93Broc LowryQBWMUvs KENT10/10pass yds≈base127
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
150+
31%
94Caden CreelQBJXST@ KENN10/7pass yds≈base124.9
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
95Camren BoykinQBTEMvs CONN10/10pass yds≈base124.2
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
96Daniel KaelinQBUVAvs SYR10/10pass yds≈base124
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
97Locklan HewlettQBUSF@ UTSA10/8pass yds≈base123.9
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
98Nick EversQBCONN@ TEM10/10pass yds≈base123.7
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
99CJ LeeQBSJSUvs WYO10/10pass yds≈base122.3
110+
39%
120+
37%
130+
35%
140+
33%
100CJ TillerQBUSUvs WSU10/10pass yds≈base121.3
110+
38%
120+
36%
130+
34%
140+
33%
100 of 2,083
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.