Missouri State Bears
Conference USA
0-0 (0-0 conf)
SP+ #108
Ratings
2025 final
- SP+
- -10.7 (#108)
- SP+ Offense
- 25.6
- SP+ Defense
- 34.8
- SRS
- -8.8
- FPI
- -11.5
- Elo
- 1328
- Talent
- 426
- Recruiting
- 152 (#131)
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
5.2p10 3.0 — p90 7.0
| Round | Prob | |
|---|---|---|
| Win conference | 2.6% | |
| Make CFP | 0.0% | |
| Quarterfinal | 0.0% | |
| Semifinal | 0.0% | |
| Natl. final | 0.0% | |
| Natl. champ | 0.0% |
Schedule
proj record 5.3–6.7
Schedule
93rd
toughest of 136
Offenses faced
78th
toughest of 136
Defenses faced
113th
toughest of 136
Strength of schedule — how tough this team's opponents are, ranked 1 (hardest) to 136 (easiest) · by 2025 SP+ · 1 FCS game.
| Wk | Opponent | SP+ | Score | Proj | Win% | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Texas A&M | +20.7 | 5-49 | -44.1 | 0% | — |
| 2 | vsLindenwood | FCS | 42-6* | +35.3 | 99% | — |
| 3 | vsMarshall | -4.5 | 30-32 | -2.0 | 45% | — |
| 4 | @SMU | +13.4 | 15-42 | -27.6 | 5% | — |
| 6 | @Western Kentucky | +1.6 | 20-35 | -14.2 | 20% | — |
| 7 | vsKennesaw State | -5.4 | 25-24 | +0.2 | 51% | — |
| 8 | @Delaware | -10.9 | 25-26 | -0.6 | 48% | — |
| 9 | vsSam Houston | -27.8 | 35-21 | +13.7 | 80% | — |
| 10 | @Florida International | -10.5 | 23-28 | -4.9 | 39% | — |
| 11 | vsNew Mexico State | -15.5 | 33-26 | +7.0 | 66% | — |
| 12 | @Jacksonville State | -6.7 | 21-32 | -10.8 | 26% | — |
| 13 | vsLiberty | -9 | 27-28 | -0.8 | 48% | — |
* FBS-vs-FCS estimate from the SP+ gap — no per-game model for FCS opponents.
Quarterbacks · 5
2026 · 72
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | Jacob Clark | SR | 6'5" | 220 | ★★★ |
| QB | 2nd | Skyler Locklear← UTEP | JR | 5'11" | 195 | ★★★ |
| QB | 3rd | Deuce Bailey | FR | 6'0" | 170 | — |
| QB | 4th | Henry Belin IV← Duke | JR | 6'3" | 220 | ★★★ |
| QB | 5th | Cole Feuerbacher | SO | 6'3" | 205 | — |
Running Backs · 7
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | Shomari Lawrence | SR | 6'0" | 210 | — |
| RB | 2nd | Ramone Green Jr. | SO | 5'9" | 190 | — |
| RB | 3rd | Connor Lair | JR | 6'1" | 225 | — |
| RB | 4th | Reggie Branch II | SR | 6'0" | 200 | — |
| RB | 5th | Iverson Young | SO | 5'9" | 190 | ★★★ |
| RB | 6th | King Davis | FR | 5'8" | 185 | ★★★ |
| RB | — | Breezy Dubar← Boise State | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Wide Receivers · 8
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Dash Luke | SR | 5'8" | 175 | — |
| WR | 2nd | Jmariyae Robinson | JR | 6'1" | 165 | — |
| WR | 3rd | Makai Cope | SR | 6'3" | 210 | — |
| WR | 4th | James BlackStrain | SR | 6'2" | 180 | ★★★★ |
| WR | 5th | Mekhi Miller← Tulsa | SR | 6'1" | 200 | ★★★ |
| WR | 6th | Isaiah McMorris | FR | 5'11" | 175 | — |
| WR | 7th | Isaiah Myers← Western Kentucky | JR | 6'4" | 188 | ★★★ |
| WR | 8th | Brendon McQueen | FR | 6'3" | 190 | — |
Tight Ends · 4
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Jeron Askren | FR | 6'3" | 230 | — |
| TE | 2nd | Dillon Hipp | FR | 6'6" | 245 | — |
| TE | 3rd | Hayden Hagler | SR | 6'4" | 245 | — |
| TE | — | Witt Edwards← Vanderbilt | SO | 6'5" | 200 | ★★★ |
Offensive Line · 2
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT | — | King Large← SMU | FR | 6'4" | 316 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | William Dixon← VMI | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Defensive Line · 14
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL | 1st | Tim Brantley Jr. | JR | 6'1" | 275 | — |
| DL | 2nd | Davon Townley Jr. | SR | 6'6" | 275 | ★★★★ |
| DL | 3rd | Sterling Smithson | SR | 6'3" | 325 | — |
| DL | 4th | Caleb Dietlin | SR | 6'3" | 245 | — |
| DL | 5th | Ryan Williams | SR | 6'4" | 270 | ★★★ |
| DL | 6th | Caden Wiest | SO | 6'4" | 265 | — |
| DL | 7th | Malachi Madison← Massachusetts | JR | 6'3" | 290 | ★★★ |
| DL | 8th | Dezmond Barnes | FR | 6'1" | 305 | — |
| DL | 9th | Jayden McGee | FR | 6'4" | 225 | — |
| DL | — | Markell Chapman← Iowa State | SO | 6'3" | 305 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 1st | Josh Lukusa← Miami (OH) | JR | 6'4" | 257 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 2nd | Kellen Lindstrom← Tennessee | FR | 6'5" | 240 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | — | Dylan Brooks← Kansas | SR | 6'4" | 245 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | — | Jalile Elliott← Wilson | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Linebackers · 15
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB | 1st | Kanye Young | SR | 6'1" | 220 | — |
| LB | 2nd | Jared Lloyd | JR | 6'3" | 240 | — |
| LB | 3rd | Dylan Dixson | JR | 6'1" | 180 | ★★★ |
| LB | 4th | Jalen Brooks | SR | 5'11" | 230 | — |
| LB | 5th | Stratton Shufelt← UTEP | SO | 6'2" | 230 | ★★★ |
| LB | 6th | Cooper Roy | SO | 6'3" | 225 | — |
| LB | 7th | Jashawn Cooper | SO | 6'0" | 215 | — |
| LB | 8th | Austin Yelder | SO | 6'0" | 223 | — |
| LB | 9th | Devin Rutherford | FR | 5'11" | 180 | — |
| LB | 10th | Braxton Starnes | FR | 6'3" | 215 | — |
| LB | 11th | Don Quist | FR | 6'3" | 205 | — |
| LB | 12th | Grayson Cutchlow | FR | 6'3" | 230 | — |
| LB | 13th | Hieko Malone | FR | 6'1" | 210 | — |
| LB | 14th | Martavis Blackmon | JR | 6'1" | 225 | — |
| LB | 15th | Caleb Olabode | FR | 6'2" | 205 | — |
Defensive Backs · 11
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 1st | Thomas Anderson | SR | 6'1" | 190 | — |
| CB | 2nd | Jordan Dunbar | SR | 6'0" | 195 | ★★★ |
| CB | 3rd | Floyd Williams | SO | 6'1" | 175 | — |
| CB | 4th | Darryon Taylor | JR | 6'0" | 180 | — |
| CB | — | Joel Kpassou← Duquesne | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| S | 1st | Maguire Neal | SR | 6'1" | 200 | ★★★ |
| S | 2nd | Christian Ford | SO | 6'0" | 180 | — |
| S | 3rd | J.J. O'Neal | SR | 6'2" | 180 | — |
| S | 4th | Antonio Smith | SO | 6'3" | 197 | — |
| S | 5th | Khalil Anderson | SR | 5'11" | 200 | — |
| S | — | Geo Jallah← Benedict College | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Special Teams · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LS | 1st | Mitch Weisenborn | FR | 6'3" | 240 | — |
| LS | 2nd | Andrew Kallas | SO | 6'3" | 227 | — |
| LS | — | Tim Coleman← UVA Wise | — | — | — | — |
| P | 1st | Anthony Frederique | SR | 5'8" | 205 | — |
| PK | 1st | Yousef Obeid | SO | 6'0" | 180 | — |
| PK | 2nd | Stewart McDonald | FR | 6'1" | 195 | — |
Projected Season
2026 · win prob / game
Exp. Wins
5.3
Exp. Losses
6.7
Toss-ups
4
bars: model win probabilityfav / toss-up / dog
2025 · pct vs FBS
SP+ Off
25.644
Off PPA
+0.1756
Pass PPA
+0.3271
Rush PPA
+0.0319
Success
39%20
Explosive
1.4999
PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league
Advanced
2025 · opponent-adjusted PPA / play
| Split | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.17 | +0.24 |
| Passing | +0.32 | +0.33 |
| Rushing | +0.03 | +0.19 |
| 1st Down | +0.08 | +0.12 |
| 2nd Down | +0.10 | +0.17 |
| 3rd Down | +0.44 | +0.59 |
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
25.4
PPG Against
28.3
Differential
-2.9
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / L2025
- Overall
- 7-5
- Home
- 3-3
- Away
- 4-2
- Conference
- 5-3
- Non-Conference
- 2-2
- One-Score (≤8)
- 5-2
- Avg Margin
- -2.9
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 3-3 | 28.3 | 25.3 |
| Away | 4-2 | 22.5 | 31.3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 28.0 | 34.0 |
| Competition | |||
| vs Ranked (SP+ 25) | 0-2 | 11.5 | 50.5 |
| Conference | 5-3 | 27.4 | 26.1 |
| Non-conference | 2-3 | 22.8 | 33.0 |
Season History · last 12
0 AP top-10 · 1 postseason
| Season | Record | Conf | SP+ | AP | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-5 | 5-3 | #108 | — | 0-1 |
| 2024 | 8-4 | 6-2 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 4-7 | 3-5 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 5-6 | 3-5 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 8-4 | 6-2 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 0-3 | 0-0 | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 1-10 | 1-7 | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 4-7 | 2-6 | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 3-8 | 2-6 | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 4-7 | 2-6 | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 1-10 | 0-8 | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 4-8 | 1-7 | — | — | — |
Recent Form · last 5
2-3 SU · 2-2 ATS · O3/U1
Betting Profile
2025 · 12 w/ line
| Straight up | 7-6 |
| ATS | 7-558% |
| Over / Under | 4-8 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 4-2 |
| As underdog | 3-3 |
| Home | 4-2 |
| Away | 3-3 |
vs closing line · splits show cover–no cover
Recruiting Classes
avg #173 · 0 blue-chip
■ 5★■ 4★■ 3★21 rated signees
| Class | Natl | Pts | 5★ | 4★ | 3★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | #131 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 2025 | #136 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2022 | #165 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | #164 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2019 | #207 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | #183 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | #182 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2016 | #193 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | #215 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2014 | #151 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
247Sports composite · class rank vs all FBS
Roster Talent
2026
Portal in 19net +8Out 11
Portal avg stars (in / out)3.0 / 2.9
Notable Portal Moves
| ▲ | Dylan Brooks | EDGE | 3★ | ← Kansas |
| ▲ | William Dixon | OT | 3★ | ← VMI |
| ▲ | Witt Edwards | TE | 3★ | ← Vanderbilt |
| ▲ | Isaiah Villanueva | IOL | 3★ | ← Jackson State |
| ▼ | Tristian Gardner | WR | 3★ | → Coastal Carolina |
| ▼ | Mitchell Toney | DL | 3★ | → Coastal Carolina |
| ▼ | Cash Hudson | IOL | 3★ | → South Florida |
| ▼ | Ronnel Johnson | WR | 3★ | → Jacksonville State |
returning PPA · portal · talent composite · 2026
Injury Report · 0
No injuries reported.
Team News
0 items
No recent news.