Air Force Falcons
Mountain West
0-0 (0-0 conf)
SP+ #80
Ratings
2025 final
- SP+
- -3.2 (#80)
- SP+ Offense
- 28.3
- SP+ Defense
- 31.7
- SRS
- -7.4
- FPI
- -8.4
- Elo
- 1386
- Talent
- —
- Recruiting
- 116 (#141)
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
7.9p10 6.0 — p90 10.0
| Round | Prob | |
|---|---|---|
| Win conference | 17.3% | |
| Make CFP | 1.1% | |
| Quarterfinal | 0.0% | |
| Semifinal | 0.0% | |
| Natl. final | 0.0% | |
| Natl. champ | 0.0% |
Schedule
proj record 7.9–4.1
Schedule
119th
toughest of 136
Offenses faced
121st
toughest of 136
Defenses faced
105th
toughest of 136
Strength of schedule — how tough this team's opponents are, ranked 1 (hardest) to 136 (easiest) · by 2025 SP+ · 2 FCS games.
| Wk | Opponent | SP+ | Score | Proj | Win% | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsDuquesne | FCS | 44-4* | +39.4 | 99% | — |
| 2 | vsNorth Dakota State | FCS | 31-21 | +10.4 | 74% | — |
| 4 | @Nevada | -13.4 | 30-21 | +9.3 | 71% | — |
| 5 | vsNavy | +6.2 | 30-29 | +0.3 | 51% | — |
| 6 | @Northern Illinois | -16.7 | 29-18 | +10.7 | 74% | — |
| 7 | vsUNLV | +4.3 | 34-26 | +7.1 | 67% | — |
| 8 | @Wyoming | -11.3 | 32-22 | +9.8 | 72% | — |
| 9 | vsUConn | +5.1 | 33-30 | +2.9 | 57% | — |
| 10 | @Army | +0.8 | 19-32 | -13.1 | 21% | — |
| 11 | vsSan José State | -14.3 | 38-18 | +20.3 | 89% | — |
| 12 | vsUTEP | -17.5 | 40-15 | +24.5 | 93% | — |
| 13 | @New Mexico | +0.9 | 23-35 | -11.2 | 25% | — |
* FBS-vs-FCS estimate from the SP+ gap — no per-game model for FCS opponents.
Quarterbacks · 3
2026 · 58
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | Liam Szarka | SO | 6'0" | 195 | — |
| QB | 2nd | Josh Johnson | JR | 6'2" | 190 | — |
| QB | 3rd | Maguire Martin | JR | 6'1" | 190 | — |
Running Backs · 10
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 1st | Kemper Hodges | JR | 6'0" | 245 | — |
| FB | 2nd | Terrence Gist | SR | 6'0" | 225 | — |
| FB | 3rd | Travis Wood | SO | 5'10" | 225 | — |
| FB | 4th | Gage LaDue | SO | 5'10" | 215 | — |
| RB | 1st | Owen Allen | JR | 5'11" | 215 | — |
| RB | 2nd | Dylan Carson | SR | 6'0" | 215 | — |
| RB | 3rd | Kade Frew | SR | 5'9" | 190 | ★★★ |
| RB | 4th | Rocco Conti | JR | 5'8" | 190 | — |
| RB | 5th | Kaden Cloud | SR | 5'9" | 185 | ★★★ |
| RB | 6th | Kaleb Killian | SR | 5'10" | 195 | — |
Wide Receivers · 7
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Cade Harris | SR | 5'8" | 185 | ★★ |
| WR | 2nd | Quin Smith | SR | 6'1" | 200 | — |
| WR | 3rd | Jonah Dawson | SO | 5'9" | 170 | — |
| WR | 4th | Tre Roberson | SR | 6'2" | 205 | — |
| WR | 5th | Mason Hayes | SO | 5'11" | 210 | — |
| WR | 6th | Matt Long | SO | 5'10" | 205 | — |
| WR | 7th | Tylor Latham | SR | 5'8" | 180 | — |
Tight Ends · 1
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Bruin Fleischmann | SR | 6'5" | 235 | ★★ |
Offensive Line · 1
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | — | Jackson Garrett | SR | 6'3" | 265 | — |
Defensive Line · 8
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 1st | Daniel Grobe | SR | 6'7" | 270 | — |
| DE | 2nd | Grady Forsythe | SO | 6'4" | 235 | — |
| DL | 1st | Payton Zdroik | SR | 6'0" | 275 | — |
| DL | 2nd | Andrew Tillett | JR | 6'3" | 290 | — |
| DL | 3rd | Lukia Rawls Jr. | JR | 5'11" | 280 | — |
| DL | 4th | Jayden Oquendo | JR | 6'2" | 285 | — |
| DL | 5th | Chaz Barnett | SO | 6'3" | 260 | — |
| DT | 1st | Aidan Swartz | SR | 6'4" | 275 | — |
Linebackers · 13
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB | 1st | Blake Fletcher | JR | 6'1" | 215 | ★★★ |
| LB | 2nd | Dallas Daley | JR | 6'1" | 215 | — |
| LB | 3rd | Isaac Hubert | JR | 6'1" | 225 | — |
| LB | 4th | Brody Bujnoch | JR | 6'1" | 235 | — |
| LB | 5th | Jackson Adams | SR | 6'4" | 240 | — |
| LB | 6th | Luke Fisher | JR | 6'0" | 225 | — |
| LB | 7th | Jaylin Reese | SO | 6'0" | 245 | ★★ |
| LB | 8th | Vinnie Canosa | SO | 6'1" | 230 | — |
| LB | 9th | Zach Juckel | SR | 6'2" | 225 | — |
| LB | 10th | Jonah Bowman | SO | 6'0" | 235 | — |
| LB | 11th | Jake Kepler | SO | 6'2" | 230 | — |
| LB | 12th | Ty Hubert | SR | 5'11" | 205 | — |
| LB | 13th | Brodie Mitchell | SO | 6'1" | 205 | — |
Defensive Backs · 11
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 1st | Levi Brown | SR | 6'1" | 185 | — |
| CB | 2nd | Evan Rau | SR | 5'9" | 180 | — |
| DB | 1st | Roger Jones Jr. | SO | 5'11" | 184 | — |
| DB | 2nd | Korey Johnson | SO | 5'11" | 190 | — |
| DB | 3rd | Mikhail Seiken | SO | 5'10" | 180 | — |
| DB | 4th | Nick Beckwith | SO | 6'0" | 215 | — |
| DB | 5th | Houston Hendrix | JR | 6'1" | 205 | ★★★ |
| DB | 6th | Jordan Elie-Stuart | FR | 6'1" | 185 | — |
| DB | 7th | JT Tomescko | SO | 6'1" | 190 | — |
| DB | 8th | RJ Reedus | FR | 6'1" | 175 | — |
| DB | 9th | Jet Wiley | JR | 6'2" | 185 | — |
Special Teams · 4
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LS | 1st | Kurt Chesney | SR | 6'0" | 205 | — |
| P | 1st | Luke Freer | SR | 6'4" | 225 | — |
| PK | 1st | Reagan Tubbs | SR | 6'0" | 180 | — |
| PK | 2nd | Jacob Medina | SO | 5'10" | 170 | — |
Projected Season
2026 · win prob / game
Exp. Wins
7.9
Exp. Losses
4.1
Toss-ups
2
bars: model win probabilityfav / toss-up / dog
2025 · pct vs FBS
SP+ Off
28.357
Off PPA
+0.2987
Pass PPA
+0.5599
Rush PPA
+0.2388
Success
48%90
Explosive
1.2029
PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league
SP+ Trend
points vs avg team
— Overall— Offense— Defense
SP+ = opponent-adjusted points vs an average team. Overall & Offense higher = better; Defense lower = better.
Advanced
2025 · opponent-adjusted PPA / play
| Split | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.29 | +0.40 |
| Passing | +0.55 | +0.51 |
| Rushing | +0.23 | +0.29 |
| 1st Down | +0.07 | +0.24 |
| 2nd Down | +0.30 | +0.32 |
| 3rd Down | +0.61 | +0.82 |
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
29.8
PPG Against
30.3
Differential
-0.5
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / L2025
- Overall
- 4-8
- Home
- 2-4
- Away
- 2-4
- Conference
- 3-5
- Non-Conference
- 1-3
- One-Score (≤8)
- 1-3
- Avg Margin
- -0.5
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 2-4 | 27.5 | 27.8 |
| Away | 2-4 | 32.2 | 32.8 |
| Competition | |||
| Conference | 3-5 | 30.6 | 33.9 |
| Non-conference | 1-3 | 28.3 | 23.3 |
Season History · last 12
0 AP top-10 · 7 postseason
| Season | Record | Conf | SP+ | AP | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4-8 | 3-5 | #80 | — | — |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 3-4 | #111 | — | — |
| 2023 | 8-4 | 5-3 | #44 | #17 | 1-0 |
| 2022 | 9-3 | 5-3 | #58 | — | 1-0 |
| 2021 | 9-3 | 6-2 | #54 | — | 1-0 |
| 2020 | 3-3 | 2-2 | #92 | — | — |
| 2019 | 10-2 | 7-1 | #25 | — | 1-0 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 3-5 | #85 | — | — |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 4-4 | #104 | — | — |
| 2016 | 9-3 | 5-3 | #58 | — | 1-0 |
| 2015 | 8-5 | 6-3 | #57 | — | 0-1 |
| 2014 | 9-3 | 5-3 | #74 | — | 1-0 |
Recent Form · last 5
2-3 SU · 2-3 ATS · O1/U4
Betting Profile
2025 · 12 w/ line
| Straight up | 4-8 |
| ATS | 5-742% |
| Over / Under | 7-5 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 2-3 |
| As underdog | 3-4 |
| Home | 1-5 |
| Away | 4-2 |
vs closing line · splits show cover–no cover
Recruiting Classes
avg #119 · 0 blue-chip
■ 5★■ 4★■ 3★88 rated signees
| Class | Natl | Pts | 5★ | 4★ | 3★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | #141 | 116 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2025 | #129 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2024 | #172 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2023 | #104 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| 2022 | #114 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2021 | #90 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| 2020 | #107 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2019 | #107 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2018 | #122 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2017 | #109 | 116 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
247Sports composite · class rank vs all FBS
Roster Talent
2026
Portal in 0net -4Out 4
Portal avg stars (in / out)— / 2.0
Notable Portal Moves
| ▼ | Jordan Shuler | LB | 2★ | → — |
| ▼ | Trae Williams | CB | — | → Furman |
| ▼ | Jeremiah Shelby | EDGE | — | → — |
| ▼ | Dominic Diaz | LS | — | → — |
returning PPA · portal · talent composite · 2026
Injury Report · 0
No injuries reported.
Team News
1 items
- Air Force AD Nathan Pine out after seven years in roleNathan Pine is out as the athletic director at Air Force, with sources telling ESPN that Pine was pushed out at the urging of outgoing superintendent Lt. Gen. Tony D. Bauernfeind.AF16d