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Player Props

2026 · week 4
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 1.8M unseen player-games (2018-2025); no band off by more than 5 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415
Stat
PosTeamSort
2,317 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Joey AguilarQBTENNvs TEX9/26pass yds≈base271.9
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
2Josh HooverQBTCU@ UCF9/26pass yds≈base270.1
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
3Jayden MaiavaQBUSCvs ORE9/26pass yds≈base250.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
4Jalen KitnaQBUABvs NAVY9/25pass yds≈base250
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
5Trinidad ChamblissQBMISS@ FLA9/26pass yds≈base249.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
6Julian SayinQBOSUvs ILL9/26pass yds≈base249.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
7Caden VeltkampQBFAU@ ULM9/26pass yds≈base248.5
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
8Drew MestemakerQBUNTvs HCU9/26pass yds≈base243.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
9Kevin JenningsQBSMUvs MOST9/26pass yds≈base239.5
225+
59%
250+
49%
275+
38%
300+
29%
10Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBCALvs CLEM9/26pass yds≈base235.5
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
11Micah AlejadoQBHAW@ WYO9/26pass yds≈base235.1
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
12Darian MensahQBDUKEvs W&M9/26pass yds≈base233.2
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
13Brad JacksonQBTXSTvs UIW9/26pass yds≈base232
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
14Malik WashingtonQBMDvs UCLA9/26pass yds≈base231.7
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
15Owen McCownQBUTSAvs CSU9/26pass yds≈base231.5
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
16Marcel ReedQBTA&M@ LSU9/26pass yds≈base226.2
200+
63%
225+
53%
250+
43%
275+
34%
17CJ CarrQBND@ PUR9/26pass yds≈base223.7
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
18Jaylen RaynorQBARSTvs KENN9/26pass yds≈base223.6
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
19Brendan SorsbyQBCINvs KSU9/26pass yds≈base223.5
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
20Noah FifitaQBARIZ@ WSU9/26pass yds≈base222.8
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
21Nick MinicucciQBDEL@ UVA9/26pass yds≈base222.7
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
22John MateerQBOU@ UGA9/26pass yds≈base221.7
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
33%
23CJ BaileyQBNCSUvs APP9/26pass yds≈base221.5
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
24Arch ManningQBTEX@ TENN9/26pass yds≈base220.2
200+
60%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
25Dante MooreQBORE@ USC9/26pass yds≈base219.2
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
26Anthony ColandreaQBUNLV@ AKR9/26pass yds≈base219.1
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
27Jake RetzlaffQBTULNvs USM9/26pass yds≈base217.6
200+
59%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
31%
28Bryce UnderwoodQBMICHvs IOWA9/26pass yds≈base210.5
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
47%
250+
37%
29Maddux MadsenQBBOIS@ WMU9/26pass yds≈base208.1
175+
65%
200+
56%
225+
46%
250+
36%
30Devon DampierQBUTAH@ ISU9/26pass yds≈base207.3
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
46%
250+
36%
31Dylan RaiolaQBNEB@ MSU9/26pass yds≈base206.6
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
32Maalik MurphyQBORST@ UTEP9/27pass yds≈base205.3
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
33Gunner StocktonQBUGAvs OU9/26pass yds≈base205.1
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
34Colton JosephQBODUvs JMU9/26pass yds≈base203.5
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
35Conner WeigmanQBHOU@ GASO9/26pass yds≈base203.1
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
36Jack LayneQBUNM@ NMSU9/26pass yds≈base202.4
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
37Rocco BechtQBISUvs UTAH9/26pass yds≈base202.2
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
38Demond Williams Jr.QBWASHvs MINN9/26pass yds≈base201.4
175+
62%
200+
52%
225+
43%
250+
34%
39Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQBCSU@ UTSA9/26pass yds≈base198.8
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
33%
40Drake LindseyQBMINN@ WASH9/26pass yds≈base198.2
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
41Baylor HayesQBTLSA@ ARK9/27pass yds≈base198
175+
60%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
42LaNorris SellersQBSC@ ALA9/26pass yds≈base197.1
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
43Avery JohnsonQBKSU@ CIN9/26pass yds≈base196.9
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
44Nico IamaleavaQBUCLA@ MD9/26pass yds≈base195.1
175+
59%
200+
50%
225+
40%
250+
31%
45Aidan ChilesQBMSUvs NEB9/26pass yds≈base193.6
175+
59%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
46Dylan LonerganQBBCvs VT9/26pass yds≈base193.3
175+
58%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
47Eli HolsteinQBPITTvs BUCK9/26pass yds≈base192.4
175+
58%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
48JC French IVQBGASOvs HOU9/26pass yds≈base191.1
175+
57%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
49Ethan VaskoQBLIB@ CCU9/24pass yds≈base190.7
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
39%
250+
30%
50Alonza Barnett IIIQBJMU@ ODU9/26pass yds≈base190.1
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
30%
51DJ LagwayQBFLAvs MISS9/26pass yds≈base188.6
175+
56%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
29%
52Jaxon PotterQBWSUvs ARIZ9/26pass yds≈base187.9
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
38%
250+
29%
53JJ KohlQBAPP@ NCSU9/26pass yds≈base187.5
150+
64%
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
37%
54Amari OdomQBKENN@ ARST9/26pass yds≈base184.3
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
45%
225+
36%
55Rodney Tisdale Jr.QBWKUvs MERC9/26pass yds≈base183.8
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
44%
225+
36%
56Keyone JenkinsQBFIUvs LIU9/26pass yds≈base182.7
150+
61%
175+
53%
200+
44%
225+
36%
57Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQBMRSHvs GWEB9/26pass yds≈base180.1
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
35%
58Dru DeShieldsQBKENTvs BALL9/26pass yds≈base179.6
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
34%
59Tayven JacksonQBUCFvs TCU9/26pass yds≈base179.3
150+
59%
175+
52%
200+
42%
225+
34%
60Cutter BoleyQBUKvs USA9/26pass yds≈base176.8
150+
58%
175+
50%
200+
41%
225+
33%
61Zane FloresQBOKST@ WVU9/26pass yds≈base171.6
150+
55%
175+
47%
200+
39%
225+
31%
62Keelon RussellQBALAvs SC9/26pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
63Goose CrowderQBTROY@ USU9/26pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
64Luke McNultyQBCLTvs UL9/26pass yds≈base169.6
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
37%
225+
30%
65Blake HorvathQBNAVY@ UAB9/25pass yds≈base167.9
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
29%
66Julian LewisQBCOLO@ BAY9/26pass yds≈base167.5
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
36%
225+
29%
67Jackson ProctorQBNIU@ GAST9/26pass yds≈base165.9
150+
51%
175+
44%
200+
35%
225+
28%
68Liam SzarkaQBAF@ NEV9/26pass yds≈base165.2
150+
51%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
69Jackson ArnoldQBAUBvs VAN9/26pass yds≈base165.1
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
70Beau PribulaQBMIZ@ MSST9/26pass yds≈base164.3
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
27%
71Roman GaglianoQBMTSU@ JXST9/26pass yds≈base163.6
150+
49%
175+
42%
200+
34%
225+
27%
72Jayden DenegalQBSDSU@ TOL9/26pass yds≈base162
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
73Michael Van Buren Jr.QBLSUvs TA&M9/26pass yds≈base161.4
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
74Bishop DavenportQBUSA@ UK9/26pass yds≈base160.2
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
75Carson ConklinQBFRESvs RICE9/27pass yds≈base159.9
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
76Ryan BrowneQBPURvs ND9/26pass yds≈base157.4
125+
53%
150+
45%
175+
38%
200+
31%
77Aidan LefflerQBBALL@ KENT9/26pass yds≈base155.4
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
78Scotty Fox Jr.QBWVUvs OKST9/26pass yds≈base155.3
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
79Kaden MartiranoQBNEVvs AF9/26pass yds≈base153.7
125+
50%
150+
43%
175+
36%
200+
29%
80Baron MayQBBGSUvs USF9/26pass yds≈base151.6
125+
48%
150+
41%
175+
34%
200+
28%
81Thomas GotkowskiQBM-OHvs CONN9/26pass yds≈base149.8
140+
43%
150+
40%
160+
38%
170+
35%
82Skyler LocklearQBUTEPvs ORST9/27pass yds≈base148.9
140+
42%
150+
39%
160+
37%
170+
34%
83KJ JacksonQBARKvs TLSA9/27pass yds≈base147.6
140+
41%
150+
39%
160+
36%
170+
34%
84Aidan ArmentaQBULMvs FAU9/26pass yds≈base146.3
140+
40%
150+
38%
160+
35%
170+
33%
85Parker AwadQBNMSUvs UNM9/26pass yds≈base143.7
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
34%
86Bekkem KritzaQBPSUvs WIS9/26pass yds≈base143.2
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
87Danny O'NeilQBWIS@ PSU9/26pass yds≈base142.8
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
88Deyon BatisteQBWYOvs HAW9/26pass yds≈base141.6
130+
39%
140+
37%
150+
35%
160+
32%
89AJ SuraceQBRUTGvs HOW9/25pass yds≈base139.7
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
90Cardell WilliamsQBSACvs MASS9/26pass yds≈base139.5
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
91Cameran BrownQBGASTvs NIU9/26pass yds≈base138.4
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
92Lunch WinfieldQBUL@ CLT9/26pass yds≈base137.3
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
93Deuce BaileyQBMOST@ SMU9/26pass yds≈base137.1
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
94Brian PlummerQBBUFvs RMU9/26pass yds≈base136.8
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
95Nick DemchukQBAKRvs UNLV9/26pass yds≈base136.5
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
96Trent PearmanQBCLEM@ CAL9/26pass yds≈base135.6
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
97Will HammondQBTTUvs SHSU9/26pass yds≈base134.1
120+
39%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
98Hunter WatsonQBSHSU@ TTU9/26pass yds≈base132.9
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
99Brady AllenQBLOUvs WAKE9/26pass yds≈base132.5
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
100Jaylen KingQBFSUvs CARK9/26pass yds≈base132.2
120+
38%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
100 of 2,317
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.