Mississippi State Bulldogs
SEC
0-0 (0-0 conf)
SP+ #58
Ratings
2025 final
- SP+
- 4.1 (#58)
- SP+ Offense
- 31.6
- SP+ Defense
- 29.0
- SRS
- 2.3
- FPI
- 3.4
- Elo
- 1468
- Talent
- 770
- Recruiting
- 231 (#23)
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
5.1p10 3.0 — p90 7.0
| Round | Prob | |
|---|---|---|
| Win conference | 0.0% | |
| Make CFP | 0.0% | |
| Quarterfinal | 0.0% | |
| Semifinal | 0.0% | |
| Natl. final | 0.0% | |
| Natl. champ | 0.0% |
Schedule
proj record 5.2–6.8
Schedule
16th
toughest of 136
Offenses faced
39th
toughest of 136
Defenses faced
7th
toughest of 136
Strength of schedule — how tough this team's opponents are, ranked 1 (hardest) to 136 (easiest) · by 2025 SP+ · 1 FCS game.
| Wk | Opponent | SP+ | Score | Proj | Win% | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsUL Monroe | -21.6 | 41-12 | +29.0 | 96% | — |
| 2 | @Minnesota | +1.5 | 27-26 | +0.7 | 52% | — |
| 3 | @South Carolina | +5.9 | 23-28 | -5.1 | 38% | — |
| 4 | vsMissouri | +14.4 | 30-27 | +2.7 | 57% | — |
| 5 | vsAlabama | +14.8 | 22-32 | -10.2 | 27% | — |
| 7 | @LSU | +10.3 | 20-31 | -11.5 | 25% | — |
| 8 | vsOklahoma | +18.3 | 23-32 | -9.3 | 29% | — |
| 9 | @Texas | +16.2 | 18-36 | -17.9 | 14% | — |
| 10 | vsVanderbilt | +20.3 | 18-35 | -16.6 | 16% | — |
| 11 | vsAuburn | +11.6 | 27-27 | -0.4 | 49% | — |
| 12 | vsTennessee Tech | FCS | 45-3* | +41.6 | 100% | — |
| 13 | @Ole Miss | +24 | 18-32 | -14.5 | 19% | — |
* FBS-vs-FCS estimate from the SP+ gap — no per-game model for FCS opponents.
Quarterbacks · 4
2026 · 73
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | Blake Shapen | SR | 6'1" | 210 | — |
| QB | 2nd | AJ Swann← App State | JR | 6'2" | 220 | ★★★ |
| QB | 3rd | Kamario Taylor | FR | 6'4" | 230 | ★★★★ |
| QB | 4th | Jaden Rashada← Sacramento State | SO | 6'4" | 183 | ★★★ |
Running Backs · 4
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | Davon Booth | SR | 5'10" | 205 | — |
| RB | 2nd | Fluff Bothwell | SO | 5'10" | 230 | ★★★ |
| RB | 3rd | Xavier Gayten | SO | 6'0" | 205 | ★★★★ |
| RB | 4th | Kolin Wilson | FR | 5'9" | 190 | ★★★ |
Wide Receivers · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Anthony Evans III | JR | 5'11" | 180 | — |
| WR | 2nd | Marquis Johnson← Missouri | JR | 5'11" | 185 | ★★★★ |
| WR | 3rd | Ayden Williams | JR | 6'3" | 205 | ★★★★ |
| WR | 4th | Sanfrisco Magee | FR | 6'2" | 200 | — |
| WR | 5th | Gracen Harris | FR | 5'11" | 175 | ★★★ |
| WR | — | Zion Ragins← Oklahoma | SO | 5'8" | 153 | ★★★ |
Tight Ends · 3
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Sam West | SO | 6'4" | 250 | — |
| TE | 2nd | Riley Williams← Oregon State | JR | 6'5" | 273 | ★★★ |
| TE | 3rd | Cameron Ball | JR | 6'7" | 250 | ★★★ |
Offensive Line · 7
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT | — | Miles McVay← North Carolina | SO | 6'6" | 350 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Tyler Miller← LSU | FR | 6'6" | 335 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Mario Nash Jr.← Florida State | FR | 6'4" | 270 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Ja'Elyne Matthews← Florida State | FR | 6'6" | 344 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Brandon Sneh← UAB | JR | 6'6" | 315 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Isaiah Dent← Oklahoma | FR | 6'6" | 318 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | DJ Chester← LSU | SO | 6'6" | 315 | ★★★ |
Defensive Line · 16
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL | 1st | Jaray Bledsoe | JR | 6'4" | 315 | ★★★★ |
| DL | 2nd | Kalvin Dinkins | JR | 6'2" | 320 | — |
| DL | 3rd | DJ Reed | SO | 6'4" | 285 | ★★★★ |
| DL | 4th | Trevion Williams | JR | 6'4" | 295 | — |
| DL | 5th | Red Hibbler | SR | 6'2" | 275 | — |
| DL | 6th | Deonte Anderson | SR | 6'3" | 280 | ★★★ |
| DL | 7th | Jamil Burroughs | SR | 6'3" | 330 | ★★★★ |
| DL | 8th | Raishein Thomas | SR | 6'4" | 300 | ★★★ |
| DL | 9th | Will Whitson | SR | 6'5" | 295 | — |
| DL | 10th | Dealyn Evans← Texas A&M | FR | 6'5" | 310 | ★★★★ |
| DL | 11th | Jamarcus Moye | JR | 6'5" | 345 | — |
| DL | 12th | Diesel Moye | JR | 6'5" | 345 | — |
| DL | 13th | Corey Clark | JR | 6'4" | 310 | — |
| EDGE | 1st | Jayson Jenkins← Florida State | JR | 6'6" | 270 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 2nd | Amaree Williams← Florida State | SO | 6'4" | 230 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 3rd | Gus Cordova← USC | FR | 6'4" | 270 | ★★★ |
Linebackers · 13
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB | 1st | Nic Mitchell | SR | 6'2" | 230 | — |
| LB | 2nd | Zakari Tillman | JR | 6'2" | 235 | ★★★ |
| LB | 3rd | Jalen Smith | SO | 6'2" | 230 | ★★★★ |
| LB | 4th | Branden Jennings | SR | 6'3" | 240 | — |
| LB | 5th | Derion Gullette | SO | 6'3" | 240 | ★★★★ |
| LB | 6th | Tyler Lockhart | FR | 6'2" | 225 | ★★★★ |
| LB | 7th | Malick Sylla | SR | 6'6" | 255 | ★★★★ |
| LB | 8th | Nevaeh Sanders | SR | 6'4" | 230 | — |
| LB | 9th | LaKendrick James | JR | 6'2" | 250 | — |
| LB | 10th | Ja'Bryis Stewart | JR | 6'1" | 215 | — |
| LB | 11th | Gav Holman← Florida State | FR | 6'1" | 233 | ★★★ |
| LB | 12th | AJ Rice | FR | 6'1" | 240 | ★★★ |
| LB | — | James Heard Jr.← Syracuse | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Defensive Backs · 17
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 1st | DeAgo Brumfield | SR | 6'0" | 190 | — |
| CB | 2nd | Kelley Jones | SO | 6'4" | 195 | ★★★★ |
| CB | 3rd | Quentin Taylor Jr.← Iowa State | FR | 6'0" | 205 | ★★★ |
| CB | 4th | Kaylib Singleton← Syracuse | FR | 6'1" | 188 | ★★★ |
| CB | 5th | Dwight Lewis III | SR | 6'1" | 195 | — |
| CB | 6th | Amarien Jefferson | JR | 6'1" | 190 | — |
| CB | 7th | Jamroc Grimsley← Florida | FR | 6'2" | 198 | ★★★ |
| S | 1st | Jahron Manning | SR | 5'10" | 195 | — |
| S | 2nd | Brylan Lanier | SR | 6'1" | 190 | — |
| S | 3rd | Isaac Smith | JR | 6'0" | 220 | ★★★★ |
| S | 4th | Marcus Williams← Rice | JR | 5'11" | 198 | ★★★ |
| S | 5th | Hunter Washington | SR | 5'11" | 200 | ★★★★ |
| S | 6th | Tanner Johnson | JR | 6'0" | 185 | — |
| S | 7th | Kendel Dolby← Oklahoma | SR | 5'11" | 194 | ★★★ |
| S | 8th | Jardin Gilbert← LSU | SR | 6'1" | 193 | ★★★ |
| S | 9th | Sekou Smith Jr. | FR | 6'0" | 180 | ★★★ |
| S | — | Terrance Love← Colorado | JR | 6'2" | 210 | ★★★ |
Special Teams · 3
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LS | 1st | Ethan Myers | SR | 6'1" | 220 | — |
| P | 1st | Ethan Pulliam | SO | 6'1" | 190 | — |
| PK | 1st | Kyle Ferrie | JR | 6'1" | 205 | — |
Projected Season
2026 · win prob / game
Exp. Wins
5.2
Exp. Losses
6.8
Toss-ups
3
bars: model win probabilityfav / toss-up / dog
2025 · pct vs FBS
SP+ Off
31.672
Off PPA
+0.1543
Pass PPA
+0.2039
Rush PPA
+0.1460
Success
42%46
Explosive
1.2868
PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league
SP+ Trend
points vs avg team
— Overall— Offense— Defense
SP+ = opponent-adjusted points vs an average team. Overall & Offense higher = better; Defense lower = better.
Advanced
2025 · opponent-adjusted PPA / play
| Split | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.15 | +0.20 |
| Passing | +0.20 | +0.28 |
| Rushing | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| 1st Down | -0.06 | +0.06 |
| 2nd Down | +0.19 | +0.15 |
| 3rd Down | +0.59 | +0.60 |
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
30.5
PPG Against
29.2
Differential
+1.3
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / L2025
- Overall
- 5-7
- Home
- 3-4
- Away
- 2-3
- Conference
- 1-7
- Non-Conference
- 4-0
- One-Score (≤8)
- 2-3
- Avg Margin
- +1.3
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 3-4 | 33.9 | 27.9 |
| Away | 2-3 | 25.8 | 31.0 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 29.0 | 43.0 |
| Competition | |||
| vs Ranked (SP+ 25) | 0-6 | 24.7 | 40.8 |
| Conference | 1-7 | 25.9 | 37.9 |
| Non-conference | 4-1 | 37.6 | 18.0 |
Season History · last 12
1 AP top-10 · 10 postseason
| Season | Record | Conf | SP+ | AP | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-7 | 1-7 | #58 | — | 0-1 |
| 2024 | 2-10 | 0-8 | #88 | — | — |
| 2023 | 5-7 | 1-7 | #62 | #9 | — |
| 2022 | 8-4 | 4-4 | #19 | #16 | 1-0 |
| 2021 | 7-5 | 4-4 | #34 | — | 0-1 |
| 2020 | 3-7 | 3-7 | #78 | — | 1-0 |
| 2019 | 6-6 | 3-5 | #50 | — | 0-1 |
| 2018 | 8-4 | 4-4 | #8 | — | 0-1 |
| 2017 | 8-4 | 4-4 | #19 | — | 1-0 |
| 2016 | 5-7 | 3-5 | #56 | — | 1-0 |
| 2015 | 8-4 | 4-4 | #21 | — | 1-0 |
| 2014 | 10-2 | 6-2 | #10 | — | 0-1 |
Recent Form · last 5
1-4 SU · 1-3 ATS · O3/U1
Betting Profile
2025 · 12 w/ line
| Straight up | 5-8 |
| ATS | 8-467% |
| Over / Under | 6-6 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 3-0 |
| As underdog | 5-4 |
| Home | 5-2 |
| Away | 3-2 |
vs closing line · splits show cover–no cover
Recruiting Classes
avg #26 · 53 blue-chip
■ 5★■ 4★■ 3★151 rated signees
| Class | Natl | Pts | 5★ | 4★ | 3★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | #23 | 231 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| 2025 | #28 | 225 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2024 | #28 | 223 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2023 | #27 | 223 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 2022 | #27 | 219 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 2021 | #25 | 211 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2020 | #27 | 220 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2019 | #24 | 237 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 2018 | #27 | 218 | 0 | 5 | 16 |
| 2017 | #24 | 220 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
247Sports composite · class rank vs all FBS
Roster Talent
2026
Portal in 27net -13Out 40
Portal avg stars (in / out)3.1 / 3.0
Notable Portal Moves
| ▲ | Marquis Johnson | WR | 4★ | ← Missouri |
| ▲ | Dealyn Evans | DL | 4★ | ← Texas A&M |
| ▲ | Amaree Williams | EDGE | 3★ | ← Florida State |
| ▲ | Tyler Miller | OT | 3★ | ← LSU |
| ▼ | Jordan Mosley | WR | 4★ | → Colorado State |
| ▼ | Ferzell Shepard | WR | 4★ | → — |
| ▼ | Luke Work | OT | 3★ | → Missouri |
| ▼ | Jayvin James | OT | 3★ | → Alabama |
returning PPA · portal · talent composite · 2026
Injury Report · 0
No injuries reported.
Team News
13 items
- "It's Hard to Leave Knoxville" Mississippi State commit BJ Allen Talks Tennessee's Push to FlipMississippi State commit BJ Allen talks with Vols on SI about the Vols push to flip him.MSST2d
- David Turner, Mississippi State assistant, announces retirement from coachingDavid Turner announced his retirement from coaching on Saturday. The post David Turner, Mississippi State assistant, announces retirement from coaching appeared first on Saturday Down South.MSST2d
- Chambliss, Taylor among SEC Media Days attendeesThe Ole Miss and Mississippi State quarterbacks will both take center stage at SEC Media Days next week. The Rebels’ Trinidad Chambliss and the Bulldogs’ Kamario Taylor will be among the players to meet the press in Tampa, Florida, the conference announced Tuesday. Joining Chambliss will be running back Kewan Lacy and defensive tackle Will Echoles. The trio, along with head coach Pete Golding, ...MSST6d
- LSU Sets Eyes on Flipping a Mississippi State CommitThe LSU Tigers are looking to add more on the recruiting trail and this time they are targeting a cornerback committed to the Mississippi State BulldogsMSST12d
- 2026 Vanderbilt Football Early Opponent Preview, Game 9: Mississippi StateComing off a bye week, Vanderbilt will travel to Mississippi State for its second consecutive road game. Vandy On SI takes a look at the Bulldogs outlook.MSST17d
- Mississippi State loses commitment from 4-star RB less than a month after initial pledge, per reportA Mississippi State pledge just de-committed from MSU. The post Mississippi State loses commitment from 4-star RB less than a month after initial pledge, per report appeared first on Saturday Down South.MSST18d
- Mississippi State flips former Stanford commit, 3-star 2027 LBMississippi State added a former Stanford pledge on Monday night. The post Mississippi State flips former Stanford commit, 3-star 2027 LB appeared first on Saturday Down South.MSST20d
- Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor earns rave reviews at Manning Passing AcademyMississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor has been one of the biggest standouts at the Manning Passing Academy this week. The post Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor earns rave reviews at Manning Passing Academy appeared first on Saturday Down South.
- Mississippi State lands a commitment from safety Rontrae Carter: ‘They help their players become extremely successful’Mississippi State’s 2027 recruiting class is taking shape. Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs have tacked on nearly double-digit commitments over the last month. The latest is three-star Marrero (La.) Shaw safety Rontrae Carter, who committed to State over the likes of Houston and TCU. Carter is the ninth commitment of June for Mississippi State, which […]MSST24d
- Three-star WR Kyron Brown commits to Texas over Mississippi State, Kansas StateThe Longhorns have added another speedy wide receiver to the 2027 recruiting class.MSST27d
- Mississippi State promotes from within for new safeties coachMississippi State has its newest safeties coach. The post Mississippi State promotes from within for new safeties coach appeared first on Saturday Down South.MSST28d
- What Wins and What Losses the Game for LSU vs. Mississippi StateThere are many way for LSU beating Mississippi State, but many ways to lose the games as well.MSST29d
- 5 Mississippi State Players LSU Fans Need to Know For 2026 MatchupMississippi State is hoping to rely on its playmakers for its Week 7 matchup with LSU.MSST29d