How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Baylor — the basics
143 graded games since 2014
| at a neutral site | 8-7 | 53% | +1.0 | n=15 |
| as an underdog | 33-27 | 55% | +1.1 | n=60 |
| spread 3.5-7 | 14-13 | 52% | +1.2 | n=27 |
| out of conference | 18-20 | 47% | -1.4 | n=38 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 66-67 | 50% | -0.5 | n=133 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 58-60 | 49% | -0.4 | n=118 |
| vs the SEC | 2-3 | 40% | -2.4 | n=5 |
| in September | 22-21 | 51% | -0.2 | n=43 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 31-32 | 49% | -0.4 | n=63 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Baylor — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -6.5 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 143 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game | n=143 |
| Baylor has failed to cover 3 straight | n=3 |
Baylor — combinations
45 lean Baylor · 18 lean against
Read this first. 96 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| at a neutral site + as an underdog | 6-2 | 75%from 53% | +9.2 | n=8 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 6-2 | 75%from 75% | +9.2 | n=8 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-2 | 71%from 75% | +6.4 | n=7 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-2 | 71%from 75% | +6.4 | n=7 |
| as an underdog + in September | 8-5 | 62%from 55% | +2.4 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-3 | 63%from 62% | +2.3 | n=8 |
| as an underdog + spread 3.5-7 | 8-6 | 57%from 55% | +3.1 | n=14 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 8-6 | 57%from 57% | +3.1 | n=14 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 8-6 | 57%from 57% | +3.1 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 57% | +2.9 | n=8 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 8-6 | 57%from 57% | +3.1 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 57% | +2.9 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 57% | +2.9 | n=8 |
| at a neutral site + spread 3.5-7 | 4-3 | 57%from 53% | +0.6 | n=7 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 57% | +3.8 | n=6 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 4-3 | 57%from 57% | +0.6 | n=7 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 4-2 | 67%from 57% | +3.8 | n=6 |
| + out of conference | 2-3 | 40%from 57% | -5.0 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 2-3 | 40%from 40% | -5.0 | n=5 |
| as an underdog + out of conference | 5-4 | 56%from 55% | +4.1 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 56% | +1.7 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 5-4 | 56%from 56% | +4.1 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 56% | +1.7 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 4-4 | 50%from 56% | +0.9 | n=8 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 4-4 | 50%from 56% | +0.9 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 50% | +1.7 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.