Florida Atlantic at FloridaFlorida -26.5o/u 58.5

ST Model Florida -27.9(+1.4 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Florida Atlantic — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

on the road	34-34	50%	-0.5	n=68
as an underdog	31-34	48%	-1.3	n=65
spread 21+	7-10	41%	+0.9	n=17
out of conference	19-25	43%	-0.2	n=44
vs an FBS opponent	63-69	48%	-0.2	n=132
vs a P5 opponent	8-9	47%	-4.2	n=17
in September	17-24	41%	-1.0	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	25-33	43%	-1.6	n=58

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida Atlantic — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=139

Florida Atlantic — combinations

38 lean Florida Atlantic · 78 lean against

Read this first. 140 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
as an underdog + spread 21+	6-3	67%from 48%	+5.2	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+5.2	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-3	57%from 67%	+4.7	n=7
+ in September	2-3	40%from 67%	+0.8	n=5
+ out of conference	4-3	57%from 67%	+4.7	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-3	57%from 57%	+4.7	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-3	57%from 57%	+4.7	n=7
+ in September	2-3	40%from 57%	+0.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-3	57%from 67%	+4.7	n=7
+ in September	2-3	40%from 57%	+0.8	n=5
+ in September	2-3	40%from 67%	+0.8	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 47%	-3.1	n=8
on the road + as an underdog	22-17	56%from 50%	+1.0	n=39
+ spread 21+	6-3	67%from 56%	+5.2	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+5.2	n=9
+ out of conference	4-3	57%from 67%	+4.7	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-3	57%from 67%	+4.7	n=7
+ in September	2-3	40%from 67%	+0.8	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	22-17	56%from 56%	+1.0	n=39
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-7	50%from 56%	-4.0	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 56%	-1.7	n=20
+ in September	6-9	40%from 56%	-5.3	n=15
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-7	50%from 56%	-4.0	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 50%	-4.0	n=7
+ in September	4-6	40%from 50%	-7.1	n=10
+ out of conference	9-10	47%from 56%	-3.4	n=19
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-7	50%from 47%	-4.0	n=14
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-10	47%from 47%	-3.4	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 47%	-6.3	n=9
+ in September	6-9	40%from 47%	-5.3	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 56%	-1.7	n=20
+ in September	6-9	40%from 56%	-5.3	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 40%	-6.1	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Florida — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

at home	36-37	49%	+0.5	n=73
as a favorite	41-50	45%	-2.3	n=91
spread 21+	12-14	46%	-2.4	n=26
out of conference	23-27	46%	-2.1	n=50
vs an FBS opponent	64-75	46%	-1.1	n=139
vs a G5 opponent	13-12	52%	-0.3	n=25
vs the American Athletic	2-6	25%	-8.6	n=8
in September	19-25	43%	-0.5	n=44
at this venue	36-37	49%	+0.5	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	28-35	44%	-2.8	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Florida — combinations

27 lean Florida · 239 lean against

Read this first. 285 combinations shown. The best one here is 53%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + spread 21+	11-10	52%from 49%	-0.9	n=21
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-8	53%from 52%	-0.3	n=17
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 53%	-0.3	n=17
+ in September	5-6	45%from 53%	-0.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 53%	-6.2	n=8
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 52%	-0.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 52%	-5.2	n=9
+ out of conference	9-9	50%from 52%	-1.4	n=18
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-8	53%from 50%	-0.3	n=17
+ at this venue	9-9	50%from 50%	-1.4	n=18
+ in September	5-7	42%from 50%	-1.9	n=12
+ vs an FBS opponent	2-6	25%from 50%	-5.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 50%	-6.2	n=8
+ in September	5-7	42%from 52%	-1.9	n=12
+ at this venue	5-7	42%from 42%	-1.9	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	0-5	0%from 42%	-8.5	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-7	36%from 52%	-3.7	n=11
+ at this venue	4-7	36%from 36%	-3.7	n=11
+ vs a G5 opponent	2-5	29%from 36%	-3.8	n=7
+ in September	2-5	29%from 36%	-3.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 52%	-5.2	n=9
at home + vs a G5 opponent	11-10	52%from 49%	+0.1	n=21
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 52%	+0.1	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 52%	-7.8	n=9
+ in September	6-8	43%from 52%	-0.9	n=14
+ at this venue	6-8	43%from 43%	-0.9	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	0-6	0%from 43%	-10.5	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 52%	-7.8	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.