Louisville at Ole MissOle Miss -6.5o/u 55.5

ST Model Ole Miss -13.8(+7.3 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Louisville — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at a neutral site	6-11	35%	-3.5	n=17
as an underdog	24-33	42%	-1.5	n=57
spread 3.5-7	21-27	44%	-0.9	n=48
out of conference	27-25	52%	+0.9	n=52
vs an FBS opponent	63-77	45%	-0.4	n=140
vs a P5 opponent	52-70	43%	-1.1	n=122
vs the SEC	7-11	39%	-4.9	n=18
in September	23-22	51%	+0.9	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	31-34	48%	+2.1	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Louisville — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Louisville — combinations

18 lean Louisville · 104 lean against

Read this first. 154 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + in September	15-12	56%from 52%	+2.0	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 56%	+4.1	n=11
spread 3.5-7 + out of conference	7-6	54%from 44%	+2.0	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 54%	+7.1	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-6	54%from 54%	+2.0	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 54%	+7.1	n=8
+ vs the SEC	3-4	43%from 54%	-2.4	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-6	40%from 54%	-1.7	n=10
+ vs the SEC	3-4	43%from 54%	-2.4	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-6	40%from 54%	-1.7	n=10
+ vs the SEC	3-4	43%from 40%	-2.4	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 40%	+2.7	n=5
as an underdog + out of conference	9-8	53%from 42%	-1.3	n=17
+ in September	4-3	57%from 53%	+1.0	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-8	53%from 53%	-1.3	n=17
+ in September	4-3	57%from 53%	+1.0	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-7	50%from 53%	-3.3	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	+3.1	n=8
+ vs the SEC	3-6	33%from 53%	-8.8	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-7	50%from 53%	-3.3	n=14
+ in September	2-3	40%from 50%	-3.7	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.2	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-6	33%from 50%	-8.8	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	+3.1	n=8
+ vs the SEC	3-6	33%from 53%	-8.8	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Ole Miss — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at a neutral site	7-5	58%	+2.4	n=12
as a favorite	47-46	51%	+0.8	n=93
spread 3.5-7	17-16	52%	+1.6	n=33
out of conference	27-21	56%	+3.5	n=48
vs an FBS opponent	65-66	50%	-0.1	n=131
vs a P5 opponent	54-58	48%	-1.0	n=112
vs the ACC	5-2	71%	+9.2	n=7
in September	23-17	57%	+3.0	n=40
in the last 5 seasons	35-28	56%	+2.4	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Ole Miss — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=140

Ole Miss — combinations

115 lean Ole Miss · 8 lean against

Read this first. 140 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 79% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 11.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
as a favorite + vs the ACC	5-0	100%from 51%	+14.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 100%	+14.3	n=5
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 71%	+11.8	n=6
vs the ACC + in September	4-1	80%from 71%	+10.1	n=5
in September + in the last 5 seasons	14-5	74%from 57%	+7.5	n=19
out of conference + vs the ACC	5-2	71%from 56%	+9.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 71%	+11.8	n=6
+ in September	4-1	80%from 71%	+10.1	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + vs the ACC	5-2	71%from 50%	+9.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 71%	+11.8	n=6
+ in September	4-1	80%from 71%	+10.1	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + vs the ACC	5-2	71%from 48%	+9.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 71%	+11.8	n=6
+ in September	4-1	80%from 71%	+10.1	n=5
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	18-8	69%from 56%	+7.6	n=26
at a neutral site + as a favorite	4-2	67%from 58%	+4.8	n=6
+ out of conference	4-2	67%from 67%	+4.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+4.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+4.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+4.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+4.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+4.8	n=6
as a favorite + in September	19-12	61%from 51%	+4.8	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-4	76%from 61%	+8.3	n=17
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	12-8	60%from 56%	+1.6	n=20
+ vs the ACC	5-2	71%from 60%	+9.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 71%	+11.8	n=6
+ in September	4-1	80%from 71%	+10.1	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-4	67%from 60%	+3.3	n=12
+ in September	5-3	63%from 60%	+5.0	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.