UL Monroe at Mississippi StateMississippi State -28.5o/u 55.5

ST Model Mississippi State -28.8(+0.3 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

UL Monroe — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

on the road	32-44	42%	-2.7	n=76
as an underdog	44-62	42%	-1.7	n=106
spread 21+	15-21	42%	+0.3	n=36
out of conference	19-28	40%	-2.3	n=47
vs an FBS opponent	53-73	42%	-1.7	n=126
vs a P5 opponent	10-19	34%	-3.8	n=29
vs the SEC	5-12	29%	-5.1	n=17
in September	19-20	49%	+0.8	n=39
in the last 5 seasons	26-34	43%	-0.4	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UL Monroe — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -8.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=139
UL Monroe has covered 2 straight	n=2

UL Monroe — combinations

2 lean UL Monroe · 242 lean against

Read this first. 255 combinations shown. The best one here is 56%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 58% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in September + in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 49%	+4.6	n=16
as an underdog + in September	13-14	48%from 42%	+2.2	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 48%	+4.6	n=12
vs an FBS opponent + in September	15-17	47%from 42%	+0.8	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 47%	+5.0	n=13
on the road + in September	9-11	45%from 42%	-0.8	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 45%	-5.6	n=8
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 40%	+0.9	n=20
out of conference + in September	12-15	44%from 40%	-1.4	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 44%	+0.3	n=12
as an underdog + spread 21+	14-18	44%from 42%	+0.8	n=32
+ vs an FBS opponent	14-18	44%from 44%	+0.8	n=32
+ in September	6-10	38%from 44%	+1.2	n=16
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-14	36%from 44%	-1.4	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-10	33%from 44%	+0.0	n=15
+ vs the SEC	5-11	31%from 44%	-4.6	n=16
+ out of conference	9-14	39%from 44%	-0.5	n=23
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-14	39%from 39%	-0.5	n=23
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-14	36%from 39%	-1.4	n=22
+ vs the SEC	5-11	31%from 39%	-4.6	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-7	30%from 39%	-1.9	n=10
+ in September	4-10	29%from 39%	-3.1	n=14
+ in September	6-10	38%from 44%	+1.2	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-6	14%from 38%	-4.1	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-14	36%from 44%	-1.4	n=22
+ vs the SEC	5-11	31%from 36%	-4.6	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-7	30%from 36%	-1.9	n=10
+ in September	3-10	23%from 36%	-4.8	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-10	33%from 44%	+0.0	n=15
+ vs the SEC	5-11	31%from 44%	-4.6	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 31%	-6.3	n=8
+ in September	1-8	11%from 31%	-8.4	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Mississippi State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

at home	43-36	54%	+0.4	n=79
as a favorite	44-34	56%	+0.3	n=78
spread 21+	21-10	68%	+4.8	n=31
out of conference	31-22	58%	+0.3	n=53
vs an FBS opponent	69-67	51%	-0.5	n=136
vs a G5 opponent	22-11	67%	+2.6	n=33
vs the Sun Belt	4-3	57%	-1.6	n=7
in September	25-19	57%	+0.0	n=44
at this venue	43-36	54%	+0.4	n=79
in the last 5 seasons	32-29	52%	-0.9	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Mississippi State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=147
Mississippi State has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

Mississippi State — combinations

208 lean Mississippi State · 14 lean against

Read this first. 255 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 17.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 21+ + in the last 5 seasons	10-0	100%from 68%	+12.7	n=10
at home + spread 21+	16-6	73%from 54%	+5.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 73%	+11.2	n=6
+ in September	7-2	78%from 73%	+4.2	n=9
+ at this venue	7-2	78%from 78%	+4.2	n=9
+ at this venue	16-6	73%from 73%	+5.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 73%	+11.2	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	13-5	72%from 73%	+5.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 72%	+11.2	n=6
+ in September	7-2	78%from 72%	+4.2	n=9
+ at this venue	13-5	72%from 72%	+5.1	n=18
+ out of conference	14-6	70%from 73%	+3.5	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 70%	+11.2	n=6
+ in September	7-2	78%from 70%	+4.2	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	13-5	72%from 70%	+5.1	n=18
+ at this venue	14-6	70%from 70%	+3.5	n=20
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-4	56%from 70%	-1.9	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-4	64%from 73%	+2.4	n=11
+ at this venue	7-4	64%from 64%	+2.4	n=11
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-3	57%from 64%	+0.5	n=7
spread 21+ + at this venue	16-6	73%from 68%	+5.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 73%	+11.2	n=6
spread 21+ + in September	8-3	73%from 68%	+3.6	n=11
+ at this venue	7-2	78%from 73%	+4.2	n=9
spread 21+ + vs a G5 opponent	13-5	72%from 68%	+5.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 72%	+11.2	n=6
+ in September	7-2	78%from 72%	+4.2	n=9
+ at this venue	7-2	78%from 78%	+4.2	n=9
+ at this venue	13-5	72%from 72%	+5.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 72%	+11.2	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.