How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Texas State — the basics
140 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 31-36 | 46% | -1.3 | n=67 |
| as an underdog | 39-48 | 45% | -1.5 | n=87 |
| spread 21+ | 15-15 | 50% | +1.8 | n=30 |
| out of conference | 24-26 | 48% | +1.3 | n=50 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 57-71 | 45% | -1.4 | n=128 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 6-9 | 40% | +2.2 | n=15 |
| in September | 21-24 | 47% | +0.5 | n=45 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 30-32 | 48% | +0.2 | n=62 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Texas State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 140 graded games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game | n=140 |
| Texas State has covered 2 straight | n=2 |
Texas State — combinations
24 lean Texas State · 78 lean against
Read this first. 133 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| out of conference + in the last 5 seasons | 12-10 | 55%from 48% | +3.6 | n=22 |
| as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons | 14-12 | 54%from 45% | +2.0 | n=26 |
| spread 21+ + in September | 7-6 | 54%from 50% | +3.5 | n=13 |
| in September + in the last 5 seasons | 10-9 | 53%from 47% | +3.0 | n=19 |
| on the road + in September | 12-11 | 52%from 46% | +0.1 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 52% | +1.1 | n=9 |
| spread 21+ + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 50% | +5.2 | n=8 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 28-30 | 48%from 45% | 0.0 | n=58 |
| as an underdog + in September | 13-14 | 48%from 45% | -0.2 | n=27 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-3 | 63%from 48% | +4.1 | n=8 |
| spread 21+ + vs an FBS opponent | 12-13 | 48%from 50% | +0.7 | n=25 |
| + in September | 5-4 | 56%from 48% | +5.0 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-3 | 50%from 48% | +5.8 | n=6 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-5 | 38%from 48% | +4.0 | n=8 |
| + in September | 3-3 | 50%from 38% | +6.8 | n=6 |
| as an underdog + spread 21+ | 11-12 | 48%from 45% | +0.9 | n=23 |
| + in September | 5-4 | 56%from 48% | +5.0 | n=9 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 11-12 | 48%from 48% | +0.9 | n=23 |
| + in September | 5-4 | 56%from 48% | +5.0 | n=9 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-5 | 38%from 48% | +4.0 | n=8 |
| + out of conference | 4-6 | 40%from 48% | +2.1 | n=10 |
| + in September | 4-4 | 50%from 40% | +3.8 | n=8 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 4-6 | 40%from 40% | +2.1 | n=10 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-5 | 38%from 40% | +4.0 | n=8 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-5 | 38%from 48% | +4.0 | n=8 |
| + in September | 3-3 | 50%from 38% | +6.8 | n=6 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.