Missouri State at Texas A&MTexas A&M -39o/u 52.5

ST Model Texas A&M -44.2(+5.2 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Missouri State — the basics

50 graded games since 2014

on the road	16-13	55%	+0.4	n=29
as an underdog	15-13	54%	-0.1	n=28
spread 21+	10-5	67%	+0.2	n=15
out of conference	12-8	60%	+0.7	n=20
vs an FBS opponent	14-11	56%	-0.6	n=25
vs a P5 opponent	9-1	90%	+7.5	n=10
in September	11-9	55%	+1.0	n=20
in the last 5 seasons	19-24	44%	+0.2	n=43

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Missouri State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 50 graded games: -0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=50
Missouri State has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

Missouri State — combinations

132 lean Missouri State · 2 lean against

Read this first. 145 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 16.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in September	8-0	100%from 90%	+11.8	n=8
as an underdog + vs a P5 opponent	9-1	90%from 54%	+7.5	n=10
+ in September	8-0	100%from 90%	+11.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 90%	+6.9	n=5
spread 21+ + vs a P5 opponent	9-1	90%from 67%	+7.5	n=10
+ in September	8-0	100%from 90%	+11.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 90%	+6.9	n=5
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	9-1	90%from 60%	+7.5	n=10
+ in September	8-0	100%from 90%	+11.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 90%	+6.9	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	9-1	90%from 56%	+7.5	n=10
+ in September	8-0	100%from 90%	+11.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 90%	+6.9	n=5
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	8-1	89%from 55%	+7.2	n=9
+ in September	7-0	100%from 89%	+11.9	n=7
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 90%	+6.9	n=5
on the road + spread 21+	9-3	75%from 55%	+0.6	n=12
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-1	89%from 75%	+7.2	n=9
+ in September	7-0	100%from 89%	+11.9	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 75%	+5.6	n=5
+ in September	7-2	78%from 75%	+2.4	n=9
+ out of conference	8-3	73%from 75%	+0.3	n=11
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-1	89%from 73%	+7.2	n=9
+ in September	7-2	78%from 73%	+2.4	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+0.3	n=11
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%from 75%	+0.3	n=11
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-1	89%from 73%	+7.2	n=9
+ in September	7-2	78%from 73%	+2.4	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Texas A&M — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

at home	35-43	45%	-1.1	n=78
as a favorite	50-58	46%	-1.1	n=108
spread 21+	16-19	46%	-1.6	n=35
out of conference	25-27	48%	-0.6	n=52
vs an FBS opponent	61-74	45%	-1.1	n=135
vs a G5 opponent	15-17	47%	-0.9	n=32
vs the Conference USA	1-4	20%	-4.8	n=5
in September	26-19	58%	+0.4	n=45
at this venue	35-43	45%	-1.1	n=78
in the last 5 seasons	24-37	39%	-1.4	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Texas A&M — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=145
Texas A&M has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

Texas A&M — combinations

52 lean Texas A&M · 206 lean against

Read this first. 297 combinations shown. The best one here is 64%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + in September	17-10	63%from 48%	+1.4	n=27
+ at this venue	12-8	60%from 63%	+0.6	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 60%	-4.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-7	46%from 63%	-5.1	n=13
vs an FBS opponent + in September	23-17	57%from 45%	-0.2	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 57%	-2.8	n=19
+ at this venue	10-10	50%from 57%	-2.2	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 50%	-2.6	n=11
vs a G5 opponent + in September	10-8	56%from 47%	+1.0	n=18
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 56%	-0.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 53%	-4.9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 56%	-4.9	n=9
spread 21+ + in September	11-9	55%from 46%	-0.2	n=20
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 55%	-0.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	-2.9	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 55%	-2.9	n=8
at home + in September	13-12	52%from 45%	-0.8	n=25
+ at this venue	13-12	52%from 52%	-0.8	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 52%	-2.9	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 52%	-2.9	n=12
in September + at this venue	13-12	52%from 58%	-0.8	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 52%	-2.9	n=12
as a favorite + in September	19-19	50%from 46%	-1.0	n=38
+ at this venue	12-12	50%from 50%	-1.3	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 50%	-2.9	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 50%	-3.5	n=19

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.