Southern Miss at Auburn—

ST Model Auburn -27.7

Trends · 2026 week 2

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Southern Miss — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

on the road	34-34	50%	-0.2	n=68
out of conference	23-30	43%	-2.4	n=53
vs an FBS opponent	61-73	46%	-1.9	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	7-14	33%	-2.7	n=21
vs the SEC	4-10	29%	-2.1	n=14
in September	23-24	49%	-1.2	n=47
in the last 5 seasons	27-34	44%	-2.9	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Southern Miss — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: -1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=146
Southern Miss has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

Southern Miss — combinations

13 lean Southern Miss · 45 lean against

Read this first. 78 combinations shown. The best one here is 58%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in September	7-5	58%from 33%	+2.1	n=12
on the road + in September	10-8	56%from 50%	+0.2	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 56%	-10.1	n=8
out of conference + in September	20-18	53%from 43%	-0.7	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 53%	-1.8	n=17
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	34-34	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=68
+ in September	10-8	56%from 50%	+0.2	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 56%	-10.1	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-17	39%from 50%	-4.1	n=28
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-10	33%from 50%	-2.2	n=15
+ in September	5-4	56%from 33%	+2.9	n=9
+ vs the SEC	3-8	27%from 33%	-2.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 33%	-5.9	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-8	27%from 50%	-2.3	n=11
+ in September	3-3	50%from 27%	+4.5	n=6
in September + in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 49%	-1.6	n=20
vs the SEC + in September	4-4	50%from 29%	+3.1	n=8
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 43%	-2.1	n=22
on the road + out of conference	9-13	41%from 50%	-2.7	n=22
+ in September	9-7	56%from 41%	+0.0	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 56%	-9.6	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-13	41%from 41%	-2.7	n=22
+ in September	9-7	56%from 41%	+0.0	n=16
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-10	33%from 41%	-2.2	n=15
+ vs the SEC	3-8	27%from 41%	-2.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 41%	-8.3	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-10	33%from 41%	-2.2	n=15
+ in September	5-4	56%from 33%	+2.9	n=9
+ vs the SEC	3-8	27%from 33%	-2.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 33%	-5.9	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-8	27%from 41%	-2.3	n=11
+ in September	3-3	50%from 27%	+4.5	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 41%	-8.3	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Auburn — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

at home	39-45	46%	-0.6	n=84
out of conference	22-31	42%	-1.9	n=53
vs an FBS opponent	63-75	46%	-0.1	n=138
vs a G5 opponent	15-19	44%	-2.1	n=34
vs the Sun Belt	3-5	38%	+0.3	n=8
in September	19-28	40%	-2.1	n=47
at this venue	39-45	46%	-0.6	n=84
in the last 5 seasons	27-33	45%	-0.9	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Auburn — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Auburn — combinations

0 lean Auburn · 111 lean against

Read this first. 124 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + out of conference	17-19	47%from 46%	-2.4	n=36
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-13	48%from 47%	-3.2	n=25
+ at this venue	12-13	48%from 48%	-3.2	n=25
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-11	45%from 48%	-3.3	n=20
+ in September	8-10	44%from 48%	-4.8	n=18
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-4	43%from 48%	+1.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 48%	-7.5	n=12
+ at this venue	17-19	47%from 47%	-2.4	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-9	47%from 47%	-2.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-9	47%from 47%	-2.7	n=17
+ vs a G5 opponent	14-17	45%from 47%	-2.3	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-7	50%from 45%	-0.5	n=14
+ at this venue	14-17	45%from 45%	-2.3	n=31
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-5	38%from 45%	+0.3	n=8
+ in September	7-12	37%from 45%	-4.2	n=19
+ in September	9-14	39%from 47%	-5.2	n=23
+ at this venue	9-14	39%from 39%	-5.2	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-8	33%from 39%	-5.8	n=12
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-5	38%from 47%	+0.3	n=8
+ at this venue	3-5	38%from 38%	+0.3	n=8
out of conference + at this venue	17-19	47%from 42%	-2.4	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-9	47%from 47%	-2.7	n=17
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 44%	-0.6	n=15
at home + vs an FBS opponent	34-39	47%from 46%	-0.6	n=73
+ in September	14-16	47%from 47%	-2.2	n=30
+ at this venue	14-16	47%from 47%	-2.2	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-9	31%from 47%	-6.9	n=13
+ at this venue	34-39	47%from 47%	-0.6	n=73
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-18	42%from 47%	-4.3	n=31
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-11	45%from 47%	-3.3	n=20
+ at this venue	9-11	45%from 45%	-3.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 45%	-5.6	n=9
+ in September	6-8	43%from 45%	-3.4	n=14
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-4	43%from 45%	+1.8	n=7
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-4	43%from 47%	+1.8	n=7
+ at this venue	3-4	43%from 43%	+1.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-18	42%from 47%	-4.3	n=31

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.