How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Mississippi State — the basics
147 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 31-26 | 54% | +1.3 | n=57 |
| out of conference | 31-22 | 58% | +0.3 | n=53 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 69-67 | 51% | -0.5 | n=136 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 56-58 | 49% | -0.5 | n=114 |
| in September | 25-19 | 57% | +0.0 | n=44 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 32-29 | 52% | -0.9 | n=61 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Mississippi State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 147 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game | n=147 |
| Mississippi State has failed to cover 4 straight | n=4 |
Mississippi State — combinations
21 lean Mississippi State · 19 lean against
Read this first. 51 combinations shown. The best one here is 64%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| out of conference + in September | 16-9 | 64%from 58% | +2.5 | n=25 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-5 | 58%from 64% | +1.3 | n=12 |
| out of conference + in the last 5 seasons | 14-8 | 64%from 58% | +0.2 | n=22 |
| on the road + out of conference | 6-4 | 60%from 54% | +5.3 | n=10 |
| + in September | 5-3 | 63%from 60% | +6.8 | n=8 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 6-4 | 60%from 60% | +5.3 | n=10 |
| + in September | 5-3 | 63%from 60% | +6.8 | n=8 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 2-3 | 40%from 60% | +1.4 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 2-3 | 40%from 60% | +1.4 | n=5 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 14-10 | 58%from 54% | +2.3 | n=24 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 31-26 | 54%from 54% | +1.3 | n=57 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-10 | 58%from 54% | +2.3 | n=24 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 27-25 | 52%from 54% | +0.6 | n=52 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-9 | 59%from 52% | +2.6 | n=22 |
| + in September | 6-8 | 43%from 52% | -4.3 | n=14 |
| + in September | 9-9 | 50%from 54% | -0.9 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 2-4 | 33%from 50% | -0.1 | n=6 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 22-20 | 52%from 58% | -1.7 | n=42 |
| + in September | 11-9 | 55%from 52% | -0.5 | n=20 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-5 | 50%from 55% | -1.4 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-8 | 53%from 52% | -3.5 | n=17 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 9-11 | 45%from 52% | -3.5 | n=20 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 45% | -1.1 | n=9 |
| + in September | 4-4 | 50%from 45% | +2.4 | n=8 |
| on the road + vs a P5 opponent | 27-25 | 52%from 54% | +0.6 | n=52 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-9 | 59%from 52% | +2.6 | n=22 |
| + in September | 6-8 | 43%from 52% | -4.3 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 2-3 | 40%from 43% | +1.0 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.