Florida State at AlabamaAlabama -16.5o/u 52.5

ST Model Alabama -12(-4.5 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Florida State — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

on the road	23-31	43%	-3.9	n=54
as an underdog	21-27	44%	-3.4	n=48
spread 14.5-21	8-12	40%	-3.9	n=20
out of conference	23-26	47%	-1.8	n=49
vs an FBS opponent	60-76	44%	-3.2	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	52-69	43%	-3.4	n=121
vs the SEC	9-8	53%	+1.0	n=17
in September	17-24	41%	-7.2	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	31-31	50%	-1.0	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -3.1 pts vs their number per game	n=145
Florida State has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Florida State — combinations

47 lean Florida State · 59 lean against

Read this first. 130 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs the SEC	4-2	67%from 43%	+2.8	n=6
in September + in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 41%	-2.6	n=18
on the road + out of conference	5-4	56%from 43%	-0.4	n=9
+ vs the SEC	4-2	67%from 56%	+2.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-4	56%from 56%	-0.4	n=9
+ vs the SEC	4-2	67%from 56%	+2.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 56%	-2.3	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 56%	-2.3	n=8
+ vs the SEC	4-2	67%from 50%	+2.8	n=6
spread 14.5-21 + in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 40%	-0.5	n=9
vs the SEC + in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 53%	-0.3	n=9
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 47%	+0.4	n=20
out of conference + vs the SEC	9-8	53%from 47%	+1.0	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 53%	-0.3	n=9
out of conference + in September	9-8	53%from 47%	-1.9	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 53%	+6.4	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + vs the SEC	9-8	53%from 44%	+1.0	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 53%	-0.3	n=9
vs a P5 opponent + vs the SEC	9-8	53%from 43%	+1.0	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 53%	-0.3	n=9
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	12-12	50%from 44%	-1.6	n=24
as an underdog + vs the SEC	5-5	50%from 44%	+1.1	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 50%	+3.0	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	29-30	49%from 44%	-1.5	n=59
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	26-28	48%from 43%	-1.6	n=54

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Alabama — the basics

164 graded games since 2014

at home	49-32	60%	+1.5	n=81
as a favorite	86-69	55%	+1.4	n=155
spread 14.5-21	14-15	48%	+0.1	n=29
out of conference	34-28	55%	+0.2	n=62
vs an FBS opponent	85-68	56%	+1.7	n=153
vs a P5 opponent	73-60	55%	+1.5	n=133
vs the ACC	5-4	56%	-2.1	n=9
in September	24-19	56%	+2.7	n=43
at this venue	49-32	60%	+1.5	n=81
in the last 5 seasons	38-29	57%	-1.1	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Alabama — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 164 graded games: +1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=164

Alabama — combinations

193 lean Alabama · 11 lean against

Read this first. 226 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 14.5-21 + in September	5-1	83%from 48%	+9.6	n=6
at home + in the last 5 seasons	24-10	71%from 60%	+2.0	n=34
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	24-10	71%from 60%	+2.0	n=34
in September + in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 56%	+2.4	n=18
at home + vs a P5 opponent	32-20	62%from 60%	+1.8	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 62%	-0.9	n=22
+ at this venue	32-20	62%from 62%	+1.8	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 62%	-0.9	n=22
+ in September	5-5	50%from 62%	-1.1	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 50%	+2.9	n=5
+ at this venue	5-5	50%from 50%	-1.1	n=10
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	32-20	62%from 55%	+1.8	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 62%	-0.9	n=22
at home + vs an FBS opponent	43-27	61%from 60%	+2.4	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-8	72%from 61%	+2.6	n=29
+ vs a P5 opponent	32-20	62%from 61%	+1.8	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 62%	-0.9	n=22
+ at this venue	32-20	62%from 62%	+1.8	n=52
+ in September	5-5	50%from 62%	-1.1	n=10
+ at this venue	43-27	61%from 61%	+2.4	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-8	72%from 61%	+2.6	n=29
+ in September	15-12	56%from 61%	+1.2	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-2	82%from 56%	+7.5	n=11
+ at this venue	15-12	56%from 56%	+1.2	n=27
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	43-27	61%from 56%	+2.4	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-8	72%from 61%	+2.6	n=29

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.