How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Florida — the basics
149 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 22-28 | 44% | -2.6 | n=50 |
| as an underdog | 30-28 | 52% | +1.3 | n=58 |
| spread 1-3 | 13-13 | 50% | +0.5 | n=26 |
| in a conference game | 48-51 | 48% | -0.3 | n=99 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 64-75 | 46% | -1.1 | n=139 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 58-66 | 47% | -1.0 | n=124 |
| vs the SEC | 48-51 | 48% | -0.3 | n=99 |
| in September | 19-25 | 43% | -0.5 | n=44 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 28-35 | 44% | -2.8 | n=63 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Florida — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -5.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 149 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game | n=149 |
Florida — combinations
50 lean Florida · 118 lean against
Read this first. 217 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as an underdog + spread 1-3 | 10-6 | 63%from 52% | +3.0 | n=16 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 10-6 | 63%from 63% | +3.0 | n=16 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 10-6 | 63%from 63% | +3.0 | n=16 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-4 | 60%from 63% | +3.5 | n=10 |
| + vs the SEC | 7-5 | 58%from 63% | +2.7 | n=12 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 10-6 | 63%from 63% | +3.0 | n=16 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-4 | 60%from 63% | +3.5 | n=10 |
| + vs the SEC | 7-5 | 58%from 63% | +2.7 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-4 | 60%from 63% | +3.5 | n=10 |
| + in a conference game | 7-5 | 58%from 63% | +2.7 | n=12 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 7-5 | 58%from 58% | +2.7 | n=12 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 7-5 | 58%from 58% | +2.7 | n=12 |
| + vs the SEC | 7-5 | 58%from 58% | +2.7 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-3 | 50%from 58% | +3.3 | n=6 |
| + vs the SEC | 7-5 | 58%from 63% | +2.7 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-3 | 50%from 58% | +3.3 | n=6 |
| as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons | 18-14 | 56%from 52% | +1.4 | n=32 |
| as an underdog + in a conference game | 24-19 | 56%from 52% | +2.8 | n=43 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-9 | 61%from 56% | +2.8 | n=23 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 24-19 | 56%from 56% | +2.8 | n=43 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-9 | 61%from 56% | +2.8 | n=23 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 24-19 | 56%from 56% | +2.8 | n=43 |
| + vs the SEC | 24-19 | 56%from 56% | +2.8 | n=43 |
| + in September | 4-5 | 44%from 56% | +1.2 | n=9 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 24-19 | 56%from 56% | +2.8 | n=43 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-9 | 61%from 56% | +2.8 | n=23 |
| + vs the SEC | 24-19 | 56%from 56% | +2.8 | n=43 |
| + in September | 4-5 | 44%from 56% | +1.2 | n=9 |
| + vs the SEC | 24-19 | 56%from 56% | +2.8 | n=43 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-9 | 61%from 56% | +2.8 | n=23 |
| + in September | 4-5 | 44%from 56% | +1.2 | n=9 |
| + in September | 4-5 | 44%from 56% | +1.2 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-3 | 50%from 44% | +0.8 | n=6 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.