Troy at Missouri—

ST Model Missouri -24.6

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Troy — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

on the road	45-26	63%	+2.8	n=71
out of conference	24-28	46%	-0.9	n=52
vs an FBS opponent	71-58	55%	+0.6	n=129
vs a P5 opponent	10-11	48%	-0.4	n=21
vs the SEC	3-3	50%	-1.7	n=6
in September	25-20	56%	+1.5	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	38-28	58%	+1.6	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Troy — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=145

Troy — combinations

35 lean Troy · 10 lean against

Read this first. 70 combinations shown. The best one here is 73%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	22-9	71%from 63%	+3.5	n=31
on the road + in September	16-7	70%from 63%	+4.2	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.0	n=10
on the road + out of conference	16-9	64%from 63%	+2.7	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 64%	+5.0	n=11
+ in September	12-5	71%from 64%	+5.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 71%	+3.5	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	16-9	64%from 64%	+2.7	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 64%	+5.0	n=11
+ in September	12-5	71%from 64%	+5.7	n=17
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-7	56%from 64%	+1.3	n=16
+ vs the SEC	3-3	50%from 64%	-1.7	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-7	56%from 64%	+1.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 56%	+4.4	n=6
+ in September	7-4	64%from 56%	+2.8	n=11
+ vs the SEC	3-3	50%from 56%	-1.7	n=6
+ vs the SEC	3-3	50%from 64%	-1.7	n=6
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	43-26	62%from 63%	+2.4	n=69
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-9	71%from 62%	+3.5	n=31
+ in September	16-7	70%from 62%	+4.2	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.0	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-7	56%from 62%	+1.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 56%	+4.4	n=6
+ in September	7-4	64%from 56%	+2.8	n=11
+ vs the SEC	3-3	50%from 56%	-1.7	n=6
+ vs the SEC	3-3	50%from 62%	-1.7	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Missouri — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at home	43-37	54%	+0.8	n=80
out of conference	28-22	56%	+1.6	n=50
vs an FBS opponent	68-70	49%	-0.5	n=138
vs a G5 opponent	18-12	60%	+4.2	n=30
in September	21-22	49%	-0.9	n=43
at this venue	43-37	54%	+0.8	n=80
in the last 5 seasons	35-29	55%	+0.3	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Missouri — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Missouri — combinations

59 lean Missouri · 26 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + vs a G5 opponent	18-12	60%from 56%	+4.2	n=30
+ at this venue	15-10	60%from 60%	+4.4	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 60%	-0.9	n=12
+ in September	11-9	55%from 60%	+2.6	n=20
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 55%	+2.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 55%	-2.2	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-7	46%from 60%	-0.8	n=13
at home + vs a G5 opponent	15-10	60%from 54%	+4.4	n=25
+ at this venue	15-10	60%from 60%	+4.4	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 60%	-0.9	n=12
+ in September	9-8	53%from 60%	+2.3	n=17
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 53%	+2.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 53%	-2.5	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 60%	-0.9	n=12
vs a G5 opponent + at this venue	15-10	60%from 60%	+4.4	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 60%	-0.9	n=12
at home + out of conference	19-13	59%from 54%	+2.3	n=32
+ vs a G5 opponent	15-10	60%from 59%	+4.4	n=25
+ at this venue	15-10	60%from 60%	+4.4	n=25
+ in September	9-8	53%from 60%	+2.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 60%	-0.9	n=12
+ at this venue	19-13	59%from 59%	+2.3	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 59%	-0.3	n=16
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-10	55%from 59%	-0.3	n=22
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 55%	-0.3	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	-0.1	n=11
+ vs a G5 opponent	8-7	53%from 55%	+1.8	n=15
+ in September	9-8	53%from 55%	-1.4	n=17
+ in September	12-11	52%from 59%	+0.1	n=23
+ at this venue	12-11	52%from 52%	+0.1	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 52%	-1.6	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 59%	-0.3	n=16

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.