How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Kentucky — the basics
145 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 27-28 | 49% | -0.5 | n=55 |
| in a conference game | 45-51 | 47% | -0.7 | n=96 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 68-66 | 51% | +0.3 | n=134 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 57-58 | 50% | 0.0 | n=115 |
| vs the SEC | 45-51 | 47% | -0.7 | n=96 |
| in September | 26-18 | 59% | +0.4 | n=44 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 35-27 | 56% | -1.6 | n=62 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Kentucky — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -2.0 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 145 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game | n=145 |
| Kentucky has failed to cover 2 straight | n=2 |
Kentucky — combinations
66 lean Kentucky · 23 lean against
Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in September + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 59% | -0.3 | n=20 |
| in a conference game + in September | 18-8 | 69%from 47% | +3.6 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-2 | 80%from 69% | +2.8 | n=10 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in September | 18-8 | 69%from 50% | +3.6 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-2 | 80%from 69% | +2.8 | n=10 |
| vs the SEC + in September | 18-8 | 69%from 47% | +3.6 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-2 | 80%from 69% | +2.8 | n=10 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in September | 25-14 | 64%from 51% | +2.5 | n=39 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-4 | 76%from 64% | +2.8 | n=17 |
| on the road + in September | 8-6 | 57%from 49% | +2.0 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 57% | +4.4 | n=5 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 13-10 | 57%from 49% | -1.5 | n=23 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 32-25 | 56%from 51% | -0.9 | n=57 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 26-22 | 54%from 50% | -1.6 | n=48 |
| in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons | 21-19 | 53%from 47% | -1.5 | n=40 |
| vs the SEC + in the last 5 seasons | 21-19 | 53%from 47% | -1.5 | n=40 |
| on the road + vs a P5 opponent | 27-27 | 50%from 49% | -0.5 | n=54 |
| + in September | 8-5 | 62%from 50% | +2.4 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 62% | +4.4 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-10 | 57%from 50% | -1.5 | n=23 |
| + vs the SEC | 22-26 | 46%from 50% | -2.1 | n=48 |
| + in September | 8-5 | 62%from 46% | +2.4 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-9 | 55%from 46% | -2.1 | n=20 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent | 57-58 | 50%from 51% | 0.0 | n=115 |
| + in September | 18-8 | 69%from 50% | +3.6 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-2 | 80%from 69% | +2.8 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 26-22 | 54%from 50% | -1.6 | n=48 |
| + vs the SEC | 45-51 | 47%from 50% | -0.7 | n=96 |
| + in September | 18-8 | 69%from 47% | +3.6 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 21-19 | 53%from 47% | -1.5 | n=40 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.