NC State at Vanderbilt—

ST Model Vanderbilt -11.2

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

NC State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

on the road	26-33	44%	-0.1	n=59
out of conference	25-27	48%	-0.7	n=52
vs an FBS opponent	66-72	48%	-0.1	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	54-61	47%	-0.9	n=115
vs the SEC	3-4	43%	-10.6	n=7
in September	21-21	50%	-0.1	n=42
in the last 5 seasons	28-34	45%	+0.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

NC State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=147
NC State has covered 3 straight	n=3

NC State — combinations

1 lean NC State · 49 lean against

Read this first. 59 combinations shown. The best one here is 52%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + in September	15-14	52%from 48%	+0.0	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 52%	-4.1	n=12
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	54-61	47%from 48%	-0.9	n=115
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-27	45%from 47%	+0.2	n=49
+ in September	9-12	43%from 47%	-4.5	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-8	33%from 43%	-6.5	n=12
+ vs the SEC	3-4	43%from 47%	-10.6	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + in September	16-19	46%from 48%	-0.6	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-10	33%from 46%	-4.9	n=15
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	22-27	45%from 47%	+0.2	n=49
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	19-24	44%from 48%	-1.0	n=43
+ in September	10-12	45%from 44%	-0.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 45%	-6.9	n=9
+ vs the SEC	3-4	43%from 44%	-10.6	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-13	35%from 44%	-6.6	n=20
+ vs the SEC	3-4	43%from 35%	-10.6	n=7
+ in September	3-5	38%from 35%	-11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-8	20%from 35%	-9.0	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-13	28%from 44%	-5.4	n=18
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	26-33	44%from 44%	-0.1	n=59
+ vs a P5 opponent	22-31	42%from 44%	-1.4	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-14	39%from 42%	-1.3	n=23
+ in September	2-7	22%from 42%	-7.1	n=9
+ in September	6-9	40%from 44%	+0.1	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-5	17%from 40%	-7.2	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-15	38%from 44%	-1.8	n=24

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Vanderbilt — the basics

142 graded games since 2014

at home	34-43	44%	-2.3	n=77
out of conference	21-26	45%	-0.9	n=47
vs an FBS opponent	67-64	51%	+0.6	n=131
vs a P5 opponent	55-54	50%	+0.3	n=109
vs the ACC	3-4	43%	0.0	n=7
in September	20-25	44%	-0.6	n=45
at this venue	34-42	45%	-2.0	n=76
in the last 5 seasons	32-30	52%	+2.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Vanderbilt — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +9.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 142 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=142

Vanderbilt — combinations

11 lean Vanderbilt · 88 lean against

Read this first. 108 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 43%	+8.7	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	26-22	54%from 50%	+2.7	n=48
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	30-27	53%from 51%	+2.9	n=57
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	55-54	50%from 51%	+0.3	n=109
+ in the last 5 seasons	26-22	54%from 50%	+2.7	n=48
+ at this venue	24-28	46%from 50%	-1.6	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-13	46%from 46%	-0.4	n=24
+ vs the ACC	3-4	43%from 50%	0.0	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 43%	+8.7	n=5
+ in September	10-14	42%from 50%	-2.0	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-7	30%from 42%	+0.4	n=10
+ at this venue	3-8	27%from 42%	-8.2	n=11
vs an FBS opponent + in September	18-20	47%from 51%	+0.8	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-10	38%from 47%	+1.5	n=16
+ at this venue	7-12	37%from 47%	-2.3	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-6	14%from 37%	-3.9	n=7
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	17-19	47%from 45%	+0.5	n=36
+ in September	11-11	50%from 47%	+3.2	n=22
+ at this venue	5-6	45%from 50%	+4.3	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 50%	+2.6	n=10
+ at this venue	8-10	44%from 47%	-0.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 44%	-1.9	n=8
+ vs the ACC	3-4	43%from 47%	0.0	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 43%	+8.7	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-10	41%from 47%	+3.0	n=17
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-9	36%from 47%	-2.1	n=14
+ vs the ACC	3-4	43%from 36%	0.0	n=7
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 36%	+1.5	n=5
+ in September	3-5	38%from 36%	-0.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 36%	+1.9	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.