Tulsa at Arkansas—

ST Model Arkansas -23.6

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Tulsa — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

on the road	42-29	59%	+1.0	n=71
out of conference	25-24	51%	+1.0	n=49
vs an FBS opponent	67-66	50%	-1.1	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	11-8	58%	+0.3	n=19
in September	19-24	44%	-0.6	n=43
in the last 5 seasons	26-34	43%	-4.3	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Tulsa — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=139

Tulsa — combinations

46 lean Tulsa · 4 lean against

Read this first. 56 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 4.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	9-3	75%from 59%	+3.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 75%	+8.3	n=5
+ in September	8-1	89%from 75%	+8.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 89%	+8.3	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 58%	+2.4	n=8
on the road + in September	14-7	67%from 59%	+2.2	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 67%	+1.8	n=11
on the road + out of conference	15-8	65%from 59%	+1.7	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 65%	+4.5	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-3	75%from 65%	+3.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 75%	+8.3	n=5
+ in September	8-1	89%from 75%	+8.2	n=9
+ in September	14-5	74%from 65%	+4.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 74%	+4.5	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	15-8	65%from 65%	+1.7	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 65%	+4.5	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-3	75%from 65%	+3.7	n=12
+ in September	14-5	74%from 65%	+4.2	n=19
vs a P5 opponent + in September	8-5	62%from 58%	+0.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 62%	+0.4	n=7
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	42-29	59%from 59%	+1.0	n=71
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-3	75%from 59%	+3.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 75%	+8.3	n=5
+ in September	8-1	89%from 75%	+8.2	n=9
+ in September	14-7	67%from 59%	+2.2	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 67%	+1.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 59%	-2.5	n=30

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Arkansas — the basics

142 graded games since 2014

at home	33-42	44%	-4.4	n=75
out of conference	22-25	47%	-2.4	n=47
vs an FBS opponent	70-63	53%	-1.3	n=133
vs a G5 opponent	12-19	39%	-4.3	n=31
in September	22-22	50%	-1.4	n=44
at this venue	30-38	44%	-4.2	n=68
in the last 5 seasons	32-30	52%	-0.9	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Arkansas — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -4.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 142 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=142
Arkansas has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Arkansas — combinations

11 lean Arkansas · 65 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in September + in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 50%	+0.0	n=21
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	12-11	52%from 47%	-0.4	n=23
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	30-28	52%from 53%	-1.2	n=58
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	19-19	50%from 47%	-2.8	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 50%	-1.2	n=19
+ in September	11-13	46%from 50%	-5.3	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 46%	-3.8	n=12
+ at this venue	7-10	41%from 46%	-7.6	n=17
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-13	41%from 50%	-5.9	n=22
+ at this venue	8-10	44%from 41%	-5.2	n=18
+ in September	7-9	44%from 41%	-6.1	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 41%	-2.5	n=10
+ at this venue	9-15	38%from 50%	-7.4	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-8	33%from 38%	-6.7	n=12
in September + at this venue	10-10	50%from 50%	-4.9	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 50%	-5.3	n=10
vs an FBS opponent + in September	20-21	49%from 53%	-2.2	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 49%	-0.2	n=20
+ at this venue	9-10	47%from 49%	-6.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 47%	-5.3	n=10
out of conference + in September	13-14	48%from 47%	-3.8	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 48%	-3.1	n=13
+ at this venue	8-10	44%from 48%	-5.8	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 44%	-6.5	n=9
at home + in September	10-11	48%from 44%	-5.8	n=21
+ at this venue	10-10	50%from 48%	-4.9	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 50%	-5.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 48%	-5.3	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.