How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Texas — the basics
150 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 22-30 | 42% | -2.0 | n=52 |
| as a favorite | 52-50 | 51% | +0.4 | n=102 |
| spread 3.5-7 | 20-23 | 47% | -2.2 | n=43 |
| in a conference game | 50-54 | 48% | +0.2 | n=104 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 77-73 | 51% | +0.7 | n=150 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 63-67 | 48% | -0.1 | n=130 |
| vs the SEC | 9-14 | 39% | -1.1 | n=23 |
| in September | 27-18 | 60% | +1.7 | n=45 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 33-35 | 49% | +0.8 | n=68 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Texas — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -1.4 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 150 graded games: +0.7 pts vs their number per game | n=150 |
| Texas has covered 3 straight | n=3 |
Texas — combinations
33 lean Texas · 148 lean against
Read this first. 210 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in September + in the last 5 seasons | 13-7 | 65%from 60% | +4.6 | n=20 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in September | 27-18 | 60%from 51% | +1.7 | n=45 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-7 | 65%from 60% | +4.6 | n=20 |
| in a conference game + in September | 7-5 | 58%from 48% | +3.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 58% | +4.9 | n=5 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in September | 15-12 | 56%from 48% | -0.4 | n=27 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-3 | 67%from 56% | +5.5 | n=9 |
| as a favorite + in September | 19-16 | 54%from 51% | +0.6 | n=35 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-7 | 61%from 54% | +3.0 | n=18 |
| as a favorite + in the last 5 seasons | 30-28 | 52%from 51% | +1.2 | n=58 |
| as a favorite + vs an FBS opponent | 52-50 | 51%from 51% | +0.4 | n=102 |
| + in September | 19-16 | 54%from 51% | +0.6 | n=35 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-7 | 61%from 54% | +3.0 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 30-28 | 52%from 51% | +1.2 | n=58 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 38-44 | 46%from 51% | -0.8 | n=82 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 22-24 | 48%from 46% | +0.3 | n=46 |
| + in September | 7-10 | 41%from 46% | -3.9 | n=17 |
| + vs the SEC | 5-11 | 31%from 46% | -3.5 | n=16 |
| + vs the SEC | 5-11 | 31%from 51% | -3.5 | n=16 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-11 | 31%from 31% | -3.5 | n=16 |
| spread 3.5-7 + in a conference game | 16-16 | 50%from 47% | -1.2 | n=32 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 16-16 | 50%from 50% | -1.2 | n=32 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 16-16 | 50%from 50% | -1.2 | n=32 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-11 | 21%from 50% | -7.6 | n=14 |
| + vs the SEC | 1-4 | 20%from 50% | -9.5 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 16-16 | 50%from 50% | -1.2 | n=32 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-11 | 21%from 50% | -7.6 | n=14 |
| + vs the SEC | 1-4 | 20%from 50% | -9.5 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-11 | 21%from 50% | -7.6 | n=14 |
| + vs the SEC | 1-4 | 20%from 50% | -9.5 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 1-4 | 20%from 20% | -9.5 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.