Alabama at Mississippi State—

ST Model Alabama -13.1

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Alabama — the basics

164 graded games since 2014

on the road	25-26	49%	+0.1	n=51
vs Mississippi State	8-2	80%	+8.8	n=10
in a conference game	57-45	56%	+2.0	n=102
vs an FBS opponent	85-68	56%	+1.7	n=153
vs a P5 opponent	73-60	55%	+1.5	n=133
vs the SEC	58-47	55%	+1.8	n=105
in October	26-19	58%	+1.5	n=45
at this venue	4-1	80%	+10.8	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	38-29	57%	-1.1	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Alabama — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 164 graded games: +1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=164

Alabama — combinations

120 lean Alabama · 28 lean against

Read this first. 166 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Mississippi State + in a conference game	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ vs the SEC	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ vs the SEC	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs the SEC	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
vs Mississippi State + vs an FBS opponent	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ vs the SEC	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs the SEC	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
vs Mississippi State + vs a P5 opponent	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ vs the SEC	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
vs Mississippi State + vs the SEC	8-2	80%from 80%	+8.8	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
on the road + vs Mississippi State	4-1	80%from 49%	+10.8	n=5
+ in a conference game	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.8	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Mississippi State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

at home	43-36	54%	+0.4	n=79
vs Alabama	2-8	20%	-8.8	n=10
in a conference game	47-47	50%	+0.1	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	69-67	51%	-0.5	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	56-58	49%	-0.5	n=114
vs the SEC	47-47	50%	+0.1	n=94
in October	20-22	48%	+0.4	n=42
at this venue	43-36	54%	+0.4	n=79
in the last 5 seasons	32-29	52%	-0.9	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Mississippi State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=147
Mississippi State has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

Mississippi State — combinations

50 lean Mississippi State · 116 lean against

Read this first. 204 combinations shown. The best one here is 63%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in October	13-10	57%from 54%	+1.4	n=23
+ at this venue	13-10	57%from 57%	+1.4	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 57%	-1.3	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 57%	-1.3	n=9
in October + at this venue	13-10	57%from 48%	+1.4	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 57%	-1.3	n=9
in October + in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 48%	+1.7	n=18
at home + at this venue	43-36	54%from 54%	+0.4	n=79
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-17	50%from 54%	-1.8	n=34
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	47-47	50%from 50%	+0.1	n=94
+ vs a P5 opponent	47-47	50%from 50%	+0.1	n=94
+ vs the SEC	47-47	50%from 50%	+0.1	n=94
+ in October	18-18	50%from 50%	+0.7	n=36
+ at this venue	22-25	47%from 50%	-0.3	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-21	46%from 50%	-1.5	n=39
+ vs the SEC	47-47	50%from 50%	+0.1	n=94
+ in October	18-18	50%from 50%	+0.7	n=36
+ at this venue	22-25	47%from 50%	-0.3	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-21	46%from 50%	-1.5	n=39
+ in October	18-18	50%from 50%	+0.7	n=36
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 50%	+2.2	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 50%	+2.3	n=17
+ at this venue	22-25	47%from 50%	-0.3	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 47%	-5.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-21	46%from 50%	-1.5	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.