Florida at Missouri—

ST Model Missouri -6.2

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Florida — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

on the road	22-28	44%	-2.6	n=50
vs Missouri	5-5	50%	-4.1	n=10
in a conference game	48-51	48%	-0.3	n=99
vs an FBS opponent	64-75	46%	-1.1	n=139
vs a P5 opponent	58-66	47%	-1.0	n=124
vs the SEC	48-51	48%	-0.3	n=99
in October	20-18	53%	+0.9	n=38
at this venue	3-2	60%	-0.4	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	28-35	44%	-2.8	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Florida — combinations

67 lean Florida · 62 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs Missouri	3-2	60%from 44%	-0.4	n=5
+ in a conference game	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
on the road + at this venue	3-2	60%from 44%	-0.4	n=5
vs Missouri + in October	3-2	60%from 50%	+0.5	n=5
vs Missouri + at this venue	3-2	60%from 50%	-0.4	n=5
in a conference game + at this venue	3-2	60%from 48%	-0.4	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	3-2	60%from 46%	-0.4	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	3-2	60%from 47%	-0.4	n=5
vs the SEC + at this venue	3-2	60%from 48%	-0.4	n=5
in October + in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 53%	-0.7	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + in October	19-18	51%from 46%	+0.8	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 51%	-1.0	n=16

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Missouri — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at home	43-37	54%	+0.8	n=80
vs Florida	5-5	50%	+4.1	n=10
in a conference game	47-51	48%	-0.7	n=98
vs an FBS opponent	68-70	49%	-0.5	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	57-61	48%	-1.0	n=118
vs the SEC	47-51	48%	-0.7	n=98
in October	18-26	41%	-2.3	n=44
at this venue	43-37	54%	+0.8	n=80
in the last 5 seasons	35-29	55%	+0.3	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Missouri — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Missouri — combinations

51 lean Missouri · 110 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	29-22	57%from 48%	+0.6	n=51
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+0.8	n=39
vs the SEC + in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+0.8	n=39
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	33-26	56%from 49%	+0.4	n=59
at home + at this venue	43-37	54%from 54%	+0.8	n=80
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-17	51%from 54%	+0.2	n=35
at home + vs an FBS opponent	36-34	51%from 54%	-0.2	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 51%	+0.4	n=30
+ at this venue	36-34	51%from 51%	-0.2	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 51%	+0.4	n=30
+ vs a P5 opponent	28-27	51%from 51%	-0.8	n=55
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-10	57%from 51%	+0.8	n=23
+ at this venue	28-27	51%from 51%	-0.8	n=55
+ vs the SEC	24-24	50%from 51%	-0.2	n=48
+ in October	5-10	33%from 51%	-5.9	n=15
+ vs the SEC	24-24	50%from 51%	-0.2	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 50%	+0.7	n=19
+ at this venue	24-24	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=48
+ in October	5-10	33%from 50%	-5.9	n=15
+ in October	7-12	37%from 51%	-3.9	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 37%	-3.5	n=8
+ at this venue	7-12	37%from 37%	-3.9	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	36-34	51%from 49%	-0.2	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 51%	+0.4	n=30
at home + in the last 5 seasons	18-17	51%from 54%	+0.2	n=35

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.