Tennessee at Arkansas—

ST Model Tennessee -2.9

Trends · 2026 week 6

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Tennessee — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

on the road	26-25	51%	-0.6	n=51
in a conference game	46-51	47%	-1.2	n=97
vs an FBS opponent	67-71	49%	-0.3	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	57-62	48%	-0.2	n=119
vs the SEC	46-51	47%	-1.2	n=97
in October	24-19	56%	+2.3	n=43
in the last 5 seasons	34-31	52%	+2.8	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Tennessee — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=149
Tennessee has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Tennessee — combinations

50 lean Tennessee · 35 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 59%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in October + in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 56%	+5.8	n=17
on the road + in October	11-9	55%from 51%	+4.0	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 55%	+5.9	n=8
in a conference game + in October	22-19	54%from 47%	+2.1	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 54%	+6.0	n=16
vs an FBS opponent + in October	22-19	54%from 49%	+2.1	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 54%	+6.0	n=16
vs a P5 opponent + in October	22-19	54%from 48%	+2.1	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 54%	+6.0	n=16
vs the SEC + in October	22-19	54%from 47%	+2.1	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 54%	+6.0	n=16
on the road + in a conference game	25-23	52%from 51%	-0.2	n=48
+ in October	11-9	55%from 52%	+4.0	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 55%	+5.9	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	25-23	52%from 52%	-0.2	n=48
+ in October	11-9	55%from 52%	+4.0	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	25-23	52%from 52%	-0.2	n=48
+ vs the SEC	25-23	52%from 52%	-0.2	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 52%	+0.2	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	25-23	52%from 52%	-0.2	n=48
+ in October	11-9	55%from 52%	+4.0	n=20
+ vs the SEC	25-23	52%from 52%	-0.2	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 52%	+0.2	n=20
+ vs the SEC	25-23	52%from 52%	-0.2	n=48
+ in October	11-9	55%from 52%	+4.0	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 52%	+0.2	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 52%	+0.2	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Arkansas — the basics

142 graded games since 2014

at home	33-42	44%	-4.4	n=75
in a conference game	51-44	54%	-0.7	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	70-63	53%	-1.3	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	61-50	55%	-0.4	n=111
vs the SEC	51-44	54%	-0.7	n=95
in October	24-18	57%	-0.8	n=42
at this venue	30-38	44%	-4.2	n=68
in the last 5 seasons	32-30	52%	-0.9	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Arkansas — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -4.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 142 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=142
Arkansas has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Arkansas — combinations

61 lean Arkansas · 72 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in October	24-15	62%from 53%	-0.3	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 62%	+0.4	n=16
+ at this venue	9-9	50%from 62%	-2.5	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 50%	-6.6	n=7
vs a P5 opponent + in October	22-15	59%from 55%	-1.0	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 59%	+0.4	n=16
+ at this venue	7-9	44%from 59%	-4.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 44%	-6.6	n=7
in a conference game + in October	21-15	58%from 54%	-1.5	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 58%	-0.8	n=15
+ at this venue	7-9	44%from 58%	-4.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 44%	-6.6	n=7
vs the SEC + in October	21-15	58%from 54%	-1.5	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 58%	-0.8	n=15
+ at this venue	7-9	44%from 58%	-4.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 44%	-6.6	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	61-50	55%from 53%	-0.4	n=111
+ in October	22-15	59%from 55%	-1.0	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 59%	+0.4	n=16
+ at this venue	7-9	44%from 59%	-4.3	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	26-22	54%from 55%	-0.9	n=48
+ vs the SEC	51-44	54%from 55%	-0.7	n=95
+ in October	21-15	58%from 54%	-1.5	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-19	51%from 54%	-1.2	n=39
+ at this venue	20-20	50%from 54%	-2.6	n=40
+ at this venue	21-25	46%from 55%	-4.1	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-14	33%from 46%	-8.2	n=21

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.