South Carolina at Florida—

ST Model Florida -3.2

Trends · 2026 week 6

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

South Carolina — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

on the road	30-26	54%	+0.2	n=56
vs Florida	6-4	60%	+2.5	n=10
in a conference game	49-46	52%	+0.8	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	65-68	49%	-0.2	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	56-60	48%	-0.4	n=116
vs the SEC	49-46	52%	+0.8	n=95
in October	19-20	49%	-1.1	n=39
at this venue	4-1	80%	-2.3	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	35-28	56%	+2.9	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

South Carolina — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=144

South Carolina — combinations

126 lean South Carolina · 14 lean against

Read this first. 166 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs Florida	4-1	80%from 54%	-2.3	n=5
+ in a conference game	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	-2.3	n=5
on the road + at this venue	4-1	80%from 54%	-2.3	n=5
vs Florida + at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	-2.3	n=5
in a conference game + at this venue	4-1	80%from 52%	-2.3	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	4-1	80%from 49%	-2.3	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	4-1	80%from 48%	-2.3	n=5
vs the SEC + at this venue	4-1	80%from 52%	-2.3	n=5
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	14-9	61%from 54%	+3.9	n=23
vs Florida + in a conference game	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	n=10
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	n=10
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	-2.3	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Florida — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

at home	36-37	49%	+0.5	n=73
vs South Carolina	4-6	40%	-2.5	n=10
in a conference game	48-51	48%	-0.3	n=99
vs an FBS opponent	64-75	46%	-1.1	n=139
vs a P5 opponent	58-66	47%	-1.0	n=124
vs the SEC	48-51	48%	-0.3	n=99
in October	20-18	53%	+0.9	n=38
at this venue	36-37	49%	+0.5	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	28-35	44%	-2.8	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Florida — combinations

63 lean Florida · 78 lean against

Read this first. 204 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 63% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in October	12-7	63%from 49%	+4.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 63%	+4.8	n=9
+ at this venue	12-7	63%from 63%	+4.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 63%	+4.8	n=9
in October + at this venue	12-7	63%from 53%	+4.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 63%	+4.8	n=9
in October + in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 53%	-0.7	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + in October	19-18	51%from 46%	+0.8	n=37
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 51%	+4.5	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 61%	+5.1	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 51%	-1.0	n=16
vs a P5 opponent + in October	19-18	51%from 47%	+0.8	n=37
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 51%	+4.5	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 61%	+5.1	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 51%	-1.0	n=16
at home + in a conference game	21-21	50%from 49%	+1.8	n=42
+ in October	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.1	n=17
+ at this venue	10-7	59%from 59%	+4.1	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 59%	+4.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.2	n=17
+ vs an FBS opponent	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ in October	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.1	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.2	n=17
+ vs a P5 opponent	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ vs the SEC	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ at this venue	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ vs a P5 opponent	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ in October	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.1	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.2	n=17
+ vs the SEC	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ at this venue	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ vs the SEC	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ in October	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.1	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.2	n=17
+ at this venue	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ at this venue	21-21	50%from 50%	+1.8	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 50%	+4.2	n=17

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.