How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Texas — the basics
150 graded games since 2014
| at a neutral site | 16-11 | 59% | +4.8 | n=27 |
| vs Oklahoma | 9-4 | 69% | +7.8 | n=13 |
| as a favorite | 52-50 | 51% | +0.4 | n=102 |
| spread 3.5-7 | 20-23 | 47% | -2.2 | n=43 |
| in a conference game | 50-54 | 48% | +0.2 | n=104 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 77-73 | 51% | +0.7 | n=150 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 63-67 | 48% | -0.1 | n=130 |
| vs the SEC | 9-14 | 39% | -1.1 | n=23 |
| in October | 20-24 | 45% | -1.9 | n=44 |
| at this venue | 9-3 | 75% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 33-35 | 49% | +0.8 | n=68 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Texas — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -1.4 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 150 graded games: +0.7 pts vs their number per game | n=150 |
| Texas has covered 3 straight | n=3 |
Texas — combinations
145 lean Texas · 140 lean against
Read this first. 309 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| at a neutral site + in October | 9-3 | 75%from 59% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 75% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| at a neutral site + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 59% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| vs Oklahoma + in October | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 75% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| vs Oklahoma + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| in a conference game + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 48% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 51% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| vs a P5 opponent + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 48% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| in October + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 45% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| at a neutral site + vs Oklahoma | 9-4 | 69%from 59% | +7.8 | n=13 |
| + in October | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 75% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| + in a conference game | 9-4 | 69%from 69% | +7.8 | n=13 |
| + in October | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 69% | +7.8 | n=13 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 69% | +7.8 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 69% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 69% | +7.8 | n=13 |
| + in October | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 69% | +7.8 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 69% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 69% | +7.8 | n=13 |
| + in October | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + at this venue | 9-3 | 75%from 69% | +8.6 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 69% | +11.8 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 69% | +11.8 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.