LSU at Auburn—

ST Model Auburn -5.4

Trends · 2026 week 8

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

LSU — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

on the road	25-26	49%	-1.4	n=51
vs Auburn	4-6	40%	-3.3	n=10
in a conference game	54-42	56%	+1.5	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	76-62	55%	+1.7	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	64-54	54%	+1.8	n=118
vs the SEC	54-42	56%	+1.5	n=96
in October	27-14	66%	+4.4	n=41
at this venue	1-4	20%	-12.6	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	30-35	46%	-0.1	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

LSU — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=146

LSU — combinations

29 lean LSU · 132 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 66%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in October	27-14	66%from 55%	+4.4	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 66%	+2.1	n=17
vs a P5 opponent + in October	24-13	65%from 54%	+4.5	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 65%	+2.1	n=17
in a conference game + in October	23-13	64%from 56%	+3.9	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 64%	+0.5	n=16
vs the SEC + in October	23-13	64%from 56%	+3.9	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 64%	+0.5	n=16
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	54-42	56%from 56%	+1.5	n=96
+ in October	23-13	64%from 56%	+3.9	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 64%	+0.5	n=16
+ vs a P5 opponent	54-42	56%from 56%	+1.5	n=96
+ in October	23-13	64%from 56%	+3.9	n=36
+ vs the SEC	54-42	56%from 56%	+1.5	n=96
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 56%	+0.1	n=40
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 56%	-12.6	n=5
+ vs the SEC	54-42	56%from 56%	+1.5	n=96
+ in October	23-13	64%from 56%	+3.9	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 56%	+0.1	n=40
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 56%	-12.6	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 56%	+0.1	n=40
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 56%	-12.6	n=5
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	54-42	56%from 56%	+1.5	n=96
+ in October	23-13	64%from 56%	+3.9	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 64%	+0.5	n=16
+ vs the SEC	54-42	56%from 56%	+1.5	n=96
+ in October	23-13	64%from 56%	+3.9	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 56%	+0.1	n=40
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 56%	-12.6	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 56%	+0.1	n=40
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 56%	-12.6	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Auburn — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

at home	39-45	46%	-0.6	n=84
vs LSU	6-4	60%	+3.3	n=10
in a conference game	46-50	48%	+0.8	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	63-75	46%	-0.1	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	53-62	46%	+0.4	n=115
vs the SEC	46-50	48%	+0.8	n=96
in October	21-21	50%	+2.4	n=42
at this venue	39-45	46%	-0.6	n=84
in the last 5 seasons	27-33	45%	-0.9	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Auburn — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Auburn — combinations

63 lean Auburn · 129 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 61% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs LSU	4-1	80%from 46%	+12.6	n=5
+ in a conference game	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ vs the SEC	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+12.6	n=5
vs LSU + at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	+12.6	n=5
vs LSU + in October	5-2	71%from 60%	+7.4	n=7
vs LSU + in a conference game	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	+12.6	n=5
+ in October	5-2	71%from 60%	+7.4	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	+12.6	n=5
+ in October	5-2	71%from 60%	+7.4	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	+12.6	n=5
+ in October	5-2	71%from 60%	+7.4	n=7
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 60%	+12.6	n=5
+ in October	5-2	71%from 60%	+7.4	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.