Florida at Georgia—

ST Model Georgia -19.4

Trends · 2026 week 9

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Florida — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

at a neutral site	13-13	50%	-1.6	n=26
vs Georgia	7-5	58%	+2.0	n=12
in a conference game	48-51	48%	-0.3	n=99
vs an FBS opponent	64-75	46%	-1.1	n=139
vs a P5 opponent	58-66	47%	-1.0	n=124
vs the SEC	48-51	48%	-0.3	n=99
in October	20-18	53%	+0.9	n=38
in the last 5 seasons	28-35	44%	-2.8	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Florida — combinations

63 lean Florida · 50 lean against

Read this first. 151 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at a neutral site + in a conference game	9-6	60%from 50%	+1.4	n=15
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-6	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=15
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-6	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=15
+ vs the SEC	9-6	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-3.4	n=5
+ in October	3-4	43%from 60%	-3.8	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-6	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=15
+ vs the SEC	9-6	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-3.4	n=5
+ in October	3-4	43%from 60%	-3.8	n=7
+ vs the SEC	9-6	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-3.4	n=5
+ in October	3-4	43%from 60%	-3.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-3.4	n=5
+ in October	3-4	43%from 60%	-3.8	n=7
at a neutral site + vs the SEC	9-6	60%from 50%	+1.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-3.4	n=5
+ in October	3-4	43%from 60%	-3.8	n=7
vs Georgia + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	-3.4	n=5
at a neutral site + vs Georgia	7-5	58%from 50%	+2.0	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	-3.4	n=5
+ in a conference game	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	-3.4	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ vs the SEC	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ in October	3-4	43%from 58%	-3.8	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	-3.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ vs the SEC	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ in October	3-4	43%from 58%	-3.8	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	-3.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ in October	3-4	43%from 58%	-3.8	n=7
+ vs the SEC	7-5	58%from 58%	+2.0	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	-3.4	n=5
+ in October	3-4	43%from 58%	-3.8	n=7
+ in October	3-4	43%from 58%	-3.8	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Georgia — the basics

159 graded games since 2014

at a neutral site	23-16	59%	+3.2	n=39
vs Florida	5-7	42%	-2.0	n=12
in a conference game	55-48	53%	+0.9	n=103
vs an FBS opponent	80-68	54%	+1.8	n=148
vs a P5 opponent	74-61	55%	+1.8	n=135
vs the SEC	57-49	54%	+1.1	n=106
in October	21-19	53%	+0.7	n=40
at this venue	8-6	57%	+2.3	n=14
in the last 5 seasons	33-38	46%	+1.0	n=71

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Georgia — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 159 graded games: +0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=159

Georgia — combinations

123 lean Georgia · 45 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the SEC + at this venue	6-3	67%from 54%	+0.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 67%	-0.7	n=5
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 53%	+2.9	n=17
in a conference game + at this venue	5-3	63%from 53%	-2.3	n=8
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	8-5	62%from 55%	+2.9	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 62%	+3.7	n=9
at a neutral site + vs a P5 opponent	23-15	61%from 59%	+3.5	n=38
+ at this venue	8-5	62%from 61%	+2.9	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 62%	+3.7	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 61%	+6.9	n=21
+ in October	4-3	57%from 61%	+3.8	n=7
+ vs the SEC	12-11	52%from 61%	-0.9	n=23
+ at this venue	6-3	67%from 52%	+0.2	n=9
+ in October	4-3	57%from 52%	+3.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 52%	+1.2	n=12
at a neutral site + vs an FBS opponent	23-16	59%from 59%	+3.2	n=39
+ vs a P5 opponent	23-15	61%from 59%	+3.5	n=38
+ at this venue	8-5	62%from 61%	+2.9	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 61%	+6.9	n=21
+ in October	4-3	57%from 61%	+3.8	n=7
+ vs the SEC	12-11	52%from 61%	-0.9	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 59%	+6.9	n=21
+ at this venue	8-6	57%from 59%	+2.3	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 57%	+3.7	n=9
+ in October	4-3	57%from 59%	+3.8	n=7
+ vs the SEC	12-11	52%from 59%	-0.9	n=23
+ at this venue	6-3	67%from 52%	+0.2	n=9
+ in October	4-3	57%from 52%	+3.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 52%	+1.2	n=12

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.