Kentucky at Missouri—

ST Model Missouri -8.5

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Kentucky — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-28	49%	-0.5	n=55
vs Missouri	6-4	60%	+3.3	n=10
in a conference game	45-51	47%	-0.7	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	68-66	51%	+0.3	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	57-58	50%	0.0	n=115
vs the SEC	45-51	47%	-0.7	n=96
in November	21-26	45%	+0.5	n=47
at this venue	3-2	60%	+3.2	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	35-27	56%	-1.6	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Kentucky — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=145
Kentucky has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Kentucky — combinations

107 lean Kentucky · 44 lean against

Read this first. 166 combinations shown. The best one here is 64%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in November + in the last 5 seasons	13-8	62%from 45%	+1.9	n=21
vs Missouri + in a conference game	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
vs Missouri + vs an FBS opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
vs Missouri + vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5
vs Missouri + vs the SEC	6-4	60%from 60%	+3.3	n=10
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Missouri — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at home	43-37	54%	+0.8	n=80
vs Kentucky	4-6	40%	-3.3	n=10
in a conference game	47-51	48%	-0.7	n=98
vs an FBS opponent	68-70	49%	-0.5	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	57-61	48%	-1.0	n=118
vs the SEC	47-51	48%	-0.7	n=98
in November	29-17	63%	+4.8	n=46
at this venue	43-37	54%	+0.8	n=80
in the last 5 seasons	35-29	55%	+0.3	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Missouri — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Missouri — combinations

114 lean Missouri · 52 lean against

Read this first. 204 combinations shown. The best one here is 73%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in November + in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 63%	+4.0	n=20
at home + in November	16-8	67%from 54%	+5.6	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 67%	+4.8	n=11
+ at this venue	16-8	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 67%	+4.8	n=11
in November + at this venue	16-8	67%from 63%	+5.6	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 67%	+4.8	n=11
vs an FBS opponent + in November	29-17	63%from 49%	+4.8	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 63%	+4.0	n=20
+ at this venue	16-8	67%from 63%	+5.6	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 67%	+4.8	n=11
vs a P5 opponent + in November	29-17	63%from 48%	+4.8	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 63%	+4.0	n=20
+ at this venue	16-8	67%from 63%	+5.6	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 67%	+4.8	n=11
in a conference game + in November	27-17	61%from 48%	+4.8	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-6	68%from 61%	+4.1	n=19
+ at this venue	15-8	65%from 61%	+5.7	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 65%	+5.1	n=10
vs the SEC + in November	27-17	61%from 48%	+4.8	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-6	68%from 61%	+4.1	n=19
+ at this venue	15-8	65%from 61%	+5.7	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 65%	+5.1	n=10
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	29-22	57%from 48%	+0.6	n=51
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	22-17	56%from 48%	+0.8	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.