Arkansas at Texas—

ST Model Texas -13.3

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Arkansas — the basics

142 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-20	57%	+1.0	n=47
in a conference game	51-44	54%	-0.7	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	70-63	53%	-1.3	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	61-50	55%	-0.4	n=111
vs the SEC	51-44	54%	-0.7	n=95
in November	20-24	45%	-2.3	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	32-30	52%	-0.9	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Arkansas — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -4.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 142 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=142
Arkansas has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Arkansas — combinations

61 lean Arkansas · 23 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 68%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	13-7	65%from 57%	+3.9	n=20
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	27-18	60%from 57%	+1.6	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-6	68%from 60%	+4.5	n=19
+ vs the SEC	23-18	56%from 60%	+0.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+3.9	n=17
+ in November	7-9	44%from 56%	-0.9	n=16
+ in November	7-9	44%from 60%	-0.9	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 44%	+1.1	n=6
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	27-20	57%from 57%	+1.0	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-7	65%from 57%	+3.9	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-18	60%from 57%	+1.6	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-6	68%from 60%	+4.5	n=19
+ vs the SEC	23-18	56%from 60%	+0.5	n=41
+ in November	7-9	44%from 60%	-0.9	n=16
+ vs the SEC	23-18	56%from 57%	+0.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+3.9	n=17
+ in November	7-9	44%from 56%	-0.9	n=16
+ in November	7-9	44%from 57%	-0.9	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 44%	+1.1	n=6
on the road + in a conference game	23-18	56%from 57%	+0.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+3.9	n=17
+ vs an FBS opponent	23-18	56%from 56%	+0.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+3.9	n=17
+ vs a P5 opponent	23-18	56%from 56%	+0.5	n=41
+ vs the SEC	23-18	56%from 56%	+0.5	n=41
+ in November	7-9	44%from 56%	-0.9	n=16
+ vs a P5 opponent	23-18	56%from 56%	+0.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+3.9	n=17
+ vs the SEC	23-18	56%from 56%	+0.5	n=41
+ in November	7-9	44%from 56%	-0.9	n=16
+ vs the SEC	23-18	56%from 56%	+0.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+3.9	n=17
+ in November	7-9	44%from 56%	-0.9	n=16
+ in November	7-9	44%from 56%	-0.9	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 44%	+1.1	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Texas — the basics

150 graded games since 2014

at home	39-32	55%	+1.1	n=71
in a conference game	50-54	48%	+0.2	n=104
vs an FBS opponent	77-73	51%	+0.7	n=150
vs a P5 opponent	63-67	48%	-0.1	n=130
vs the SEC	9-14	39%	-1.1	n=23
in November	19-23	45%	-0.2	n=42
at this venue	39-32	55%	+1.1	n=71
in the last 5 seasons	33-35	49%	+0.8	n=68

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Texas — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 150 graded games: +0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=150
Texas has covered 3 straight	n=3

Texas — combinations

42 lean Texas · 99 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in the last 5 seasons	20-13	61%from 55%	+2.8	n=33
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	20-13	61%from 55%	+2.8	n=33
at home + vs an FBS opponent	39-32	55%from 55%	+1.1	n=71
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-13	61%from 55%	+2.8	n=33
+ at this venue	39-32	55%from 55%	+1.1	n=71
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-13	61%from 55%	+2.8	n=33
+ vs a P5 opponent	26-26	50%from 55%	-0.6	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 50%	+1.6	n=21
+ at this venue	26-26	50%from 50%	-0.6	n=52
+ vs the SEC	4-5	44%from 50%	+1.3	n=9
+ in November	10-13	43%from 50%	+0.0	n=23
+ vs the SEC	4-5	44%from 55%	+1.3	n=9
+ in November	3-2	60%from 44%	+5.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 44%	+1.6	n=8
+ at this venue	4-5	44%from 44%	+1.3	n=9
+ in November	10-13	43%from 55%	+0.0	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 43%	+1.6	n=11
+ at this venue	10-13	43%from 43%	+0.0	n=23
at home + at this venue	39-32	55%from 55%	+1.1	n=71
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-13	61%from 55%	+2.8	n=33
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	39-32	55%from 51%	+1.1	n=71
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-13	61%from 55%	+2.8	n=33
at home + vs a P5 opponent	26-26	50%from 55%	-0.6	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 50%	+1.6	n=21
+ at this venue	26-26	50%from 50%	-0.6	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 50%	+1.6	n=21
+ vs the SEC	4-5	44%from 50%	+1.3	n=9
+ in November	3-2	60%from 44%	+5.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 44%	+1.6	n=8
+ at this venue	4-5	44%from 44%	+1.3	n=9
+ in November	10-13	43%from 50%	+0.0	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 43%	+1.6	n=11
+ at this venue	10-13	43%from 43%	+0.0	n=23

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.