Florida at Florida State

ST Model Florida State -3
Trends · 2026 week 13
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Florida — the basics
149 graded games since 2014
on the road22-2844%-2.6n=50
vs Florida State6-555%0.0n=11
out of conference23-2746%-2.1n=50
vs an FBS opponent64-7546%-1.1n=139
vs a P5 opponent58-6647%-1.0n=124
vs the ACC6-940%-2.8n=15
in November23-2548%-1.1n=48
at this venue4-180%+3.4n=5
in the last 5 seasons28-3544%-2.8n=63
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Florida — form & streaks
Last 12 games: -5.2 pts vs their number per gamen=12
All 149 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per gamen=149
Florida — combinations
86 lean Florida · 67 lean against
Read this first. 168 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsSample
on the road + vs Florida State4-180%from 44%+3.4n=5
+ out of conference4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs the ACC4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ at this venue4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs the ACC4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ at this venue4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs the ACC4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ at this venue4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ vs the ACC4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ at this venue4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
+ at this venue4-180%from 80%+3.4n=5
on the road + at this venue4-180%from 44%+3.4n=5
vs Florida State + at this venue4-180%from 55%+3.4n=5
out of conference + at this venue4-180%from 46%+3.4n=5
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue4-180%from 46%+3.4n=5
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue4-180%from 47%+3.4n=5
vs the ACC + at this venue4-180%from 40%+3.4n=5
on the road + vs the ACC4-267%from 44%+1.1n=6
+ at this venue4-180%from 67%+3.4n=5
vs Florida State + in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 55%+4.5n=5
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.