Louisville at Kentucky—

ST Model Kentucky -0.3

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Louisville — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-30	47%	-1.4	n=57
vs Kentucky	4-7	36%	-5.9	n=11
out of conference	27-25	52%	+0.9	n=52
vs an FBS opponent	63-77	45%	-0.4	n=140
vs a P5 opponent	52-70	43%	-1.1	n=122
vs the SEC	7-11	39%	-4.9	n=18
in November	22-23	49%	+0.4	n=45
at this venue	3-2	60%	+2.4	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	31-34	48%	+2.1	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Louisville — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Louisville — combinations

102 lean Louisville · 89 lean against

Read this first. 211 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + out of conference	7-3	70%from 47%	+4.7	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+4.7	n=10
+ in November	4-2	67%from 70%	+4.0	n=6
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 70%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-3	57%from 70%	+3.4	n=7
+ in November	4-2	67%from 70%	+4.0	n=6
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 67%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 70%	+2.4	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-3	57%from 70%	+3.4	n=7
+ in November	4-2	67%from 57%	+4.0	n=6
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 57%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 57%	+2.4	n=5
on the road + vs Kentucky	3-2	60%from 47%	+2.4	n=5
+ out of conference	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Kentucky — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

at home	42-41	51%	+0.1	n=83
vs Louisville	7-4	64%	+5.9	n=11
out of conference	28-21	57%	+1.0	n=49
vs an FBS opponent	68-66	51%	+0.3	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	57-58	50%	0.0	n=115
vs the ACC	9-6	60%	+4.2	n=15
in November	21-26	45%	+0.5	n=47
at this venue	42-41	51%	+0.1	n=83
in the last 5 seasons	35-27	56%	-1.6	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Kentucky — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=145
Kentucky has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Kentucky — combinations

121 lean Kentucky · 86 lean against

Read this first. 229 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + in November	12-6	67%from 57%	+5.7	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 67%	+1.1	n=8
+ at this venue	7-5	58%from 67%	+2.1	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 58%	0.0	n=5
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 60%	-0.8	n=6
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	14-8	64%from 57%	-1.7	n=22
vs Louisville + out of conference	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ vs the ACC	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ in November	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	-1.0	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 64%	-2.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ vs the ACC	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ in November	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	-1.0	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 64%	-2.4	n=5
+ vs the ACC	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ in November	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	-1.0	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 64%	-2.4	n=5
+ in November	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	-1.0	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 64%	-2.4	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	-1.0	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 64%	-2.4	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.