Mississippi State at Ole Miss—

ST Model Ole Miss -15.1

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Mississippi State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-26	54%	+1.3	n=57
vs Ole Miss	6-4	60%	+3.6	n=10
in a conference game	47-47	50%	+0.1	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	69-67	51%	-0.5	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	56-58	49%	-0.5	n=114
vs the SEC	47-47	50%	+0.1	n=94
in November	25-20	56%	+0.7	n=45
at this venue	5-0	100%	+16.7	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	32-29	52%	-0.9	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Mississippi State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=147
Mississippi State has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

Mississippi State — combinations

160 lean Mississippi State · 25 lean against

Read this first. 204 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 80.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs Ole Miss	5-0	100%from 54%	+16.7	n=5
+ in a conference game	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs the SEC	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ in November	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs the SEC	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ in November	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs the SEC	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ in November	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ vs the SEC	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ in November	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ in November	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+16.7	n=5
on the road + at this venue	5-0	100%from 54%	+16.7	n=5
vs Ole Miss + at this venue	5-0	100%from 60%	+16.7	n=5
in a conference game + at this venue	5-0	100%from 50%	+16.7	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Ole Miss — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at home	37-39	49%	+1.0	n=76
vs Mississippi State	4-6	40%	-3.6	n=10
in a conference game	42-50	46%	-1.6	n=92
vs an FBS opponent	65-66	50%	-0.1	n=131
vs a P5 opponent	54-58	48%	-1.0	n=112
vs the SEC	43-50	46%	-1.4	n=93
in November	17-23	43%	-2.5	n=40
at this venue	37-39	49%	+1.0	n=76
in the last 5 seasons	35-28	56%	+2.4	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Ole Miss — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=140

Ole Miss — combinations

13 lean Ole Miss · 185 lean against

Read this first. 226 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in the last 5 seasons	20-15	57%from 49%	+3.3	n=35
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	20-15	57%from 49%	+3.3	n=35
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	32-27	54%from 50%	+1.2	n=59
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	25-24	51%from 48%	-0.2	n=49
at home + vs an FBS opponent	33-34	49%from 49%	+0.6	n=67
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-14	55%from 49%	+1.2	n=31
+ at this venue	33-34	49%from 49%	+0.6	n=67
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-14	55%from 49%	+1.2	n=31
+ vs a P5 opponent	23-28	45%from 49%	-1.6	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 45%	-1.7	n=22
+ at this venue	23-28	45%from 45%	-1.6	n=51
+ vs the SEC	20-26	43%from 45%	-1.3	n=46
+ in November	8-11	42%from 45%	-3.2	n=19
+ vs the SEC	20-26	43%from 49%	-1.3	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 43%	-1.1	n=19
+ at this venue	20-26	43%from 43%	-1.3	n=46
+ in November	6-11	35%from 43%	-4.4	n=17
+ in November	9-13	41%from 49%	-3.1	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 41%	-0.1	n=10
+ at this venue	9-13	41%from 41%	-3.1	n=22
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	33-34	49%from 50%	+0.6	n=67
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-14	55%from 49%	+1.2	n=31
at home + at this venue	37-39	49%from 49%	+1.0	n=76
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-15	57%from 49%	+3.3	n=35
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	54-58	48%from 50%	-1.0	n=112
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-24	51%from 48%	-0.2	n=49
+ vs the SEC	43-50	46%from 48%	-1.4	n=93
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-20	47%from 46%	-1.0	n=38
+ at this venue	20-26	43%from 46%	-1.3	n=46
+ in November	14-19	42%from 46%	-3.1	n=33
+ in November	16-19	46%from 48%	-2.5	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 46%	-0.6	n=15
+ at this venue	8-11	42%from 46%	-3.2	n=19
+ at this venue	23-28	45%from 48%	-1.6	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 45%	-1.7	n=22

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.