North Carolina at TCUTCU -6.5o/u 49

ST Model TCU -14.3(+7.8 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

North Carolina — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

at a neutral site	5-11	31%	-5.0	n=16
as an underdog	29-31	48%	+0.7	n=60
spread 3.5-7	16-22	42%	-0.7	n=38
out of conference	20-27	43%	-2.8	n=47
vs an FBS opponent	62-74	46%	-1.3	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	55-66	45%	-1.0	n=121
in the last 5 seasons	24-38	39%	-3.9	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

North Carolina — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=146
North Carolina has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

North Carolina — combinations

0 lean North Carolina · 74 lean against

Read this first. 83 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
as an underdog + vs an FBS opponent	29-31	48%from 48%	+0.7	n=60
+ vs a P5 opponent	28-31	47%from 48%	+0.6	n=59
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-12	43%from 47%	-1.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 48%	-1.6	n=22
as an underdog + vs a P5 opponent	28-31	47%from 48%	+0.6	n=59
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-12	43%from 47%	-1.9	n=21
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	55-66	45%from 46%	-1.0	n=121
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-32	37%from 45%	-4.0	n=51
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 48%	-1.6	n=22
spread 3.5-7 + vs an FBS opponent	16-22	42%from 42%	-0.7	n=38
+ vs a P5 opponent	15-22	41%from 42%	-1.7	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-11	35%from 41%	-3.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-11	35%from 42%	-3.6	n=17
spread 3.5-7 + vs a P5 opponent	15-22	41%from 42%	-1.7	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-11	35%from 41%	-3.6	n=17
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	15-22	41%from 43%	-4.0	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 41%	-7.2	n=15
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-14	36%from 41%	-3.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 36%	-9.4	n=9
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 43%	-6.2	n=20
as an underdog + out of conference	6-9	40%from 48%	-2.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 40%	-5.1	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-9	40%from 40%	-2.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 40%	-5.1	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-9	36%from 40%	-2.9	n=14
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-9	36%from 40%	-2.9	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 36%	-7.1	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

TCU — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

at a neutral site	7-5	58%	+1.6	n=12
as a favorite	50-53	49%	+0.2	n=103
spread 3.5-7	15-18	45%	-1.7	n=33
out of conference	21-20	51%	+0.3	n=41
vs an FBS opponent	66-68	49%	-0.1	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	59-64	48%	-0.5	n=123
in the last 5 seasons	30-32	48%	-1.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

TCU — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=144
TCU has covered 3 straight	n=3

TCU — combinations

35 lean TCU · 15 lean against

Read this first. 63 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 3.5-7 + out of conference	4-1	80%from 45%	+8.7	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.7	n=5
at a neutral site + out of conference	6-3	67%from 58%	+2.8	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+2.8	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 67%	+0.6	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 67%	+0.6	n=8
at a neutral site + in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 58%	+1.4	n=6
at a neutral site + as a favorite	3-2	60%from 58%	+9.6	n=5
+ out of conference	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.6	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.6	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+9.6	n=5
spread 3.5-7 + in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 45%	+3.1	n=17
at a neutral site + vs an FBS opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+1.6	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 58%	+1.4	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-5	55%from 58%	-0.1	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	-2.5	n=5
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	18-13	58%from 51%	+2.2	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 58%	-1.3	n=14
+ vs a P5 opponent	11-9	55%from 58%	+1.1	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 55%	-3.6	n=10
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	11-9	55%from 51%	+1.1	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 55%	-3.6	n=10
at a neutral site + vs a P5 opponent	6-5	55%from 58%	-0.1	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	-2.5	n=5
as a favorite + in the last 5 seasons	22-20	52%from 49%	+0.3	n=42

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.