Boston College at CincinnatiCincinnati -7.5o/u 54.5

ST Model Cincinnati -9(+1.5 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Boston College — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

on the road	35-27	56%	+1.4	n=62
as an underdog	46-37	55%	+1.3	n=83
spread 7.5-10.5	7-11	39%	-5.1	n=18
out of conference	23-25	48%	-0.1	n=48
vs an FBS opponent	69-65	51%	-0.1	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	62-57	52%	-0.2	n=119
in September	19-26	42%	-2.3	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	29-32	48%	-1.1	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Boston College — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=143
Boston College has covered 2 straight	n=2

Boston College — combinations

48 lean Boston College · 51 lean against

Read this first. 114 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + spread 7.5-10.5	3-2	60%from 56%	-0.7	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.7	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.7	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.7	n=5
on the road + as an underdog	25-18	58%from 56%	+2.4	n=43
+ out of conference	3-2	60%from 58%	-4.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-4.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-4.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	25-18	58%from 58%	+2.4	n=43
+ vs a P5 opponent	25-18	58%from 58%	+2.4	n=43
+ in September	5-4	56%from 58%	-1.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 58%	-1.8	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	25-18	58%from 58%	+2.4	n=43
+ in September	5-4	56%from 58%	-1.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 58%	-1.8	n=20
+ in September	5-4	56%from 58%	-1.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 56%	+0.3	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 58%	-1.8	n=20
as an underdog + in September	8-6	57%from 55%	+1.5	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 57%	+3.5	n=7
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	35-27	56%from 56%	+1.4	n=62
+ vs a P5 opponent	33-26	56%from 56%	+1.1	n=59
+ in September	8-7	53%from 56%	-4.7	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-14	46%from 56%	-2.5	n=26
+ in September	9-8	53%from 56%	-3.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 53%	-3.8	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-14	48%from 56%	-2.1	n=27

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Cincinnati — the basics

134 graded games since 2014

at home	30-38	44%	-0.6	n=68
as a favorite	39-44	47%	-0.0	n=83
spread 7.5-10.5	8-12	40%	-3.3	n=20
out of conference	20-24	45%	-1.6	n=44
vs an FBS opponent	56-71	44%	-1.5	n=127
vs a P5 opponent	21-26	45%	-2.2	n=47
vs the ACC	3-4	43%	+1.1	n=7
in September	16-19	46%	+0.8	n=35
at this venue	27-36	43%	-0.2	n=63
in the last 5 seasons	24-36	40%	-1.9	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Cincinnati — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 134 graded games: -1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=134
Cincinnati has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

Cincinnati — combinations

51 lean Cincinnati · 95 lean against

Read this first. 169 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
as a favorite + vs a P5 opponent	12-7	63%from 47%	+3.0	n=19
+ in September	5-1	83%from 63%	+9.1	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 63%	+2.3	n=14
+ at this venue	7-6	54%from 63%	+1.0	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 54%	+0.4	n=11
as a favorite + spread 7.5-10.5	5-3	63%from 47%	+6.8	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	+6.8	n=8
vs a P5 opponent + in September	8-5	62%from 45%	+3.4	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 62%	+7.1	n=8
in September + in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 46%	+6.0	n=16
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	12-10	55%from 45%	+0.6	n=22
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 55%	+3.3	n=6
+ in September	6-4	60%from 55%	+1.0	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	+4.7	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 55%	+1.4	n=9
+ vs the ACC	3-4	43%from 55%	+1.1	n=7
out of conference + in September	14-14	50%from 45%	+1.0	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 50%	+4.8	n=13
+ at this venue	6-8	43%from 50%	+0.2	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 43%	+4.5	n=8
as a favorite + in September	12-12	50%from 47%	+2.1	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 50%	+6.8	n=12
+ at this venue	7-9	44%from 50%	+1.2	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 44%	+7.4	n=9
as a favorite + vs an FBS opponent	37-39	49%from 47%	+0.0	n=76
+ vs a P5 opponent	12-7	63%from 49%	+3.0	n=19
+ in September	5-1	83%from 63%	+9.1	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 63%	+2.3	n=14
+ at this venue	7-6	54%from 63%	+1.0	n=13
+ in September	10-9	53%from 49%	+0.3	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 53%	+3.3	n=9
+ at this venue	5-6	45%from 53%	-2.3	n=11
+ at this venue	21-22	49%from 49%	+1.8	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 49%	0.0	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-17	48%from 49%	+0.1	n=33

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.