Oregon State at HoustonHouston -19.5o/u 50.5

ST Model Houston -14.2(-5.3 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Oregon State — the basics

134 graded games since 2014

on the road	25-34	42%	-2.1	n=59
as an underdog	38-43	47%	-2.2	n=81
spread 14.5-21	8-12	40%	-5.4	n=20
out of conference	20-27	43%	-2.9	n=47
vs an FBS opponent	57-67	46%	-2.0	n=124
vs a P5 opponent	47-55	46%	-1.9	n=102
in September	21-17	55%	+1.6	n=38
in the last 5 seasons	31-31	50%	+0.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Oregon State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 134 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=134
Oregon State has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

Oregon State — combinations

21 lean Oregon State · 77 lean against

Read this first. 114 combinations shown. The best one here is 68%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in September + in the last 5 seasons	13-6	68%from 55%	+7.0	n=19
spread 14.5-21 + out of conference	4-2	67%from 40%	+2.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 67%	-0.9	n=5
out of conference + in September	17-11	61%from 43%	+2.4	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-5	67%from 61%	+6.5	n=15
spread 14.5-21 + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 40%	-0.9	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	21-19	53%from 46%	+0.5	n=40
vs an FBS opponent + in September	16-15	52%from 46%	-0.3	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-6	63%from 52%	+4.4	n=16
on the road + spread 14.5-21	3-3	50%from 42%	-5.5	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	-5.5	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	2-3	40%from 50%	-7.0	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	2-3	40%from 50%	-7.0	n=5
on the road + as an underdog	21-23	48%from 42%	-1.5	n=44
+ spread 14.5-21	3-3	50%from 48%	-5.5	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-3	50%from 50%	-5.5	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	2-3	40%from 50%	-7.0	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	21-23	48%from 48%	-1.5	n=44
+ vs a P5 opponent	17-21	45%from 48%	-1.5	n=38
+ in September	5-7	42%from 48%	-1.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-9	31%from 48%	-4.0	n=13
+ vs a P5 opponent	17-21	45%from 48%	-1.5	n=38
+ in September	2-7	22%from 45%	-3.1	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 45%	-4.4	n=9
+ out of conference	5-7	42%from 48%	-4.9	n=12
+ in September	4-4	50%from 42%	-2.3	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-7	42%from 42%	-4.9	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 42%	-6.4	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	1-5	17%from 42%	-8.8	n=6
+ in September	5-7	42%from 48%	-1.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-9	31%from 48%	-4.0	n=13

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Houston — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

at home	31-39	44%	-1.1	n=70
as a favorite	43-47	48%	-1.6	n=90
spread 14.5-21	10-10	50%	+1.6	n=20
out of conference	28-20	58%	+0.9	n=48
vs an FBS opponent	71-66	52%	-0.3	n=137
vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%	-1.2	n=48
in September	24-21	53%	+2.3	n=45
at this venue	31-38	45%	-0.9	n=69
in the last 5 seasons	33-30	52%	+0.3	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Houston — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=144
Houston has covered 2 straight	n=2

Houston — combinations

57 lean Houston · 94 lean against

Read this first. 181 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 81% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	14-8	64%from 58%	-0.1	n=22
+ in September	9-5	64%from 64%	+1.3	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 64%	-6.2	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 64%	-3.8	n=8
out of conference + in September	21-13	62%from 58%	+4.7	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 62%	+2.7	n=14
+ at this venue	9-7	56%from 62%	+3.0	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 56%	+1.8	n=6
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	25-16	61%from 58%	+1.6	n=41
+ in September	19-9	68%from 61%	+6.6	n=28
+ at this venue	7-3	70%from 68%	+7.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 68%	+2.6	n=13
+ vs a P5 opponent	14-8	64%from 61%	-0.1	n=22
+ in September	9-5	64%from 64%	+1.3	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 64%	-3.8	n=8
+ at this venue	8-5	62%from 61%	+3.0	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 62%	-2.7	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 61%	+0.8	n=18
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 58%	+1.0	n=20
spread 14.5-21 + vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 50%	+2.1	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.1	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + in September	22-17	56%from 52%	+3.3	n=39
+ at this venue	9-7	56%from 56%	+3.1	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 56%	-2.1	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 56%	-1.8	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.