Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State—

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Southeast Missouri State is an FCS team — this board is FBS only, so there is no line history to build a dossier from.

Iowa State — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

at home	42-33	56%	+3.1	n=75
out of conference	20-19	51%	-0.4	n=39
vs an FCS opponent	4-6	40%	-4.3	n=10
in September	22-19	54%	+1.6	n=41
at this venue	42-32	57%	+3.4	n=74
in the last 5 seasons	29-33	47%	+0.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Iowa State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +1.6 pts vs their number per game	n=146

Iowa State — combinations

8 lean Iowa State · 22 lean against

Read this first. 52 combinations shown. The best one here is 58%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in September	14-10	58%from 56%	+2.7	n=24
+ at this venue	14-10	58%from 58%	+2.7	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 58%	+2.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 58%	+2.5	n=10
in September + at this venue	14-10	58%from 54%	+2.7	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 58%	+2.5	n=10
at home + at this venue	42-32	57%from 56%	+3.4	n=74
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-15	50%from 57%	+2.8	n=30
out of conference + in September	14-13	52%from 51%	+1.7	n=27
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 52%	+2.0	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 53%	+1.4	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 52%	+1.2	n=12
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	15-15	50%from 57%	+2.8	n=30
out of conference + at this venue	11-11	50%from 51%	-0.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 50%	+3.2	n=9
in September + in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 54%	+0.8	n=18
vs an FCS opponent + in September	3-3	50%from 40%	-0.5	n=6
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 50%	-0.5	n=6
at home + in the last 5 seasons	15-16	48%from 56%	+2.0	n=31
at home + out of conference	11-12	48%from 56%	-1.1	n=23
+ in September	9-8	53%from 48%	+2.0	n=17
+ at this venue	9-8	53%from 53%	+2.0	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 53%	+1.4	n=7
+ at this venue	11-11	50%from 48%	-0.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 50%	+3.2	n=9
+ vs an FCS opponent	4-6	40%from 48%	-4.3	n=10
+ in September	3-3	50%from 40%	-0.5	n=6
+ at this venue	4-6	40%from 40%	-4.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 40%	+1.7	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 48%	+0.8	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.