How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Arkansas State — the basics
147 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 40-30 | 57% | -0.3 | n=70 |
| out of conference | 24-29 | 45% | -2.3 | n=53 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 74-62 | 54% | +0.5 | n=136 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 7-11 | 39% | -6.6 | n=18 |
| in September | 20-24 | 45% | -2.4 | n=44 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 34-27 | 56% | -0.1 | n=61 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Arkansas State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +2.5 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 147 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game | n=147 |
| Arkansas State has covered 2 straight | n=2 |
Arkansas State — combinations
13 lean Arkansas State · 28 lean against
Read this first. 56 combinations shown. The best one here is 59%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 17-12 | 59%from 57% | -2.9 | n=29 |
| in September + in the last 5 seasons | 11-8 | 58%from 45% | -1.4 | n=19 |
| out of conference + in the last 5 seasons | 12-9 | 57%from 45% | -1.4 | n=21 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 39-30 | 57%from 57% | -0.4 | n=69 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 17-12 | 59%from 57% | -2.9 | n=29 |
| + in September | 12-15 | 44%from 57% | -4.2 | n=27 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 44% | -4.9 | n=11 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-9 | 36%from 57% | -7.4 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-3 | 50%from 36% | -7.3 | n=6 |
| + in September | 5-9 | 36%from 36% | -7.4 | n=14 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 31-27 | 53%from 54% | -0.7 | n=58 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in September | 18-20 | 47%from 54% | -2.5 | n=38 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-8 | 53%from 47% | -3.7 | n=17 |
| on the road + out of conference | 11-13 | 46%from 57% | -4.0 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 46% | -5.1 | n=9 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 11-13 | 46%from 46% | -4.0 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 46% | -5.1 | n=9 |
| + in September | 10-13 | 43%from 46% | -4.7 | n=23 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-9 | 36%from 46% | -7.4 | n=14 |
| + in September | 10-13 | 43%from 46% | -4.7 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 43% | -5.1 | n=9 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-9 | 36%from 46% | -7.4 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-3 | 50%from 36% | -7.3 | n=6 |
| + in September | 5-9 | 36%from 36% | -7.4 | n=14 |
| on the road + in September | 12-15 | 44%from 57% | -4.2 | n=27 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 44% | -4.9 | n=11 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.