Arizona at Washington State—

ST Model Arizona -1

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Arizona — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

on the road	24-33	42%	-1.1	n=57
vs Washington State	3-5	38%	-2.8	n=8
out of conference	16-19	46%	-2.1	n=35
vs an FBS opponent	56-70	44%	-1.0	n=126
vs a P5 opponent	50-60	45%	-0.8	n=110
vs the Pac-12	38-44	46%	-0.3	n=82
in September	18-23	44%	-2.5	n=41
at this venue	2-3	40%	-4.7	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	33-29	53%	+1.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Arizona — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +5.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=135

Arizona — combinations

20 lean Arizona · 63 lean against

Read this first. 109 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the Pac-12 + in the last 5 seasons	16-11	59%from 46%	+5.4	n=27
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 46%	-0.9	n=17
on the road + in September	7-6	54%from 42%	+0.9	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 54%	-1.3	n=8
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	31-27	53%from 44%	+1.8	n=58
in September + in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 44%	-3.3	n=19
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	27-25	52%from 45%	+1.6	n=52
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	13-13	50%from 42%	+2.0	n=26
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	5-5	50%from 46%	-0.7	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 50%	-0.4	n=7
+ in September	4-4	50%from 50%	-2.0	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 50%	-2.3	n=5
on the road + out of conference	4-4	50%from 42%	-0.2	n=8
+ in September	4-3	57%from 50%	+2.3	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ in September	4-3	57%from 50%	+2.3	n=7
out of conference + in September	14-15	48%from 46%	-2.3	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 48%	-3.1	n=14
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Pac-12	38-44	46%from 44%	-0.3	n=82
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-11	59%from 46%	+5.4	n=27
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 46%	-4.7	n=5
+ in September	3-7	30%from 46%	-3.6	n=10
vs a P5 opponent + vs the Pac-12	38-44	46%from 45%	-0.3	n=82
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-11	59%from 46%	+5.4	n=27
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 46%	-4.7	n=5
+ in September	3-7	30%from 46%	-3.6	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Washington State — the basics

141 graded games since 2014

at home	43-26	62%	+2.7	n=69
vs Arizona	5-3	63%	+2.8	n=8
out of conference	29-24	55%	+1.3	n=53
vs an FBS opponent	77-54	59%	+2.3	n=131
vs a P5 opponent	63-40	61%	+2.9	n=103
in September	25-17	60%	+1.1	n=42
at this venue	43-26	62%	+2.7	n=69
in the last 5 seasons	38-26	59%	+2.2	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Washington State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +8.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 141 graded games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=141
Washington State has covered 4 straight	n=4

Washington State — combinations

92 lean Washington State · 8 lean against

Read this first. 109 combinations shown. The best one here is 89%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in September	15-4	79%from 61%	+4.0	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 79%	+5.0	n=9
+ at this venue	9-3	75%from 79%	+3.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 75%	+1.6	n=6
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	11-4	73%from 55%	+6.7	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-1	89%from 73%	+11.5	n=9
+ in September	6-1	86%from 73%	+11.7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 86%	+11.1	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 73%	+8.7	n=5
at home + vs a P5 opponent	32-15	68%from 62%	+3.8	n=47
+ in September	9-3	75%from 68%	+3.3	n=12
+ at this venue	9-3	75%from 75%	+3.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 75%	+1.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-5	72%from 68%	+1.3	n=18
+ at this venue	32-15	68%from 68%	+3.8	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-5	72%from 68%	+1.3	n=18
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	32-15	68%from 61%	+3.8	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-5	72%from 68%	+1.3	n=18
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	26-13	67%from 61%	+4.8	n=39
at home + vs an FBS opponent	39-20	66%from 62%	+3.6	n=59
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-8	70%from 66%	+2.2	n=27
+ vs a P5 opponent	32-15	68%from 66%	+3.8	n=47
+ in September	9-3	75%from 68%	+3.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-5	72%from 68%	+1.3	n=18
+ at this venue	32-15	68%from 68%	+3.8	n=47
+ at this venue	39-20	66%from 66%	+3.6	n=59
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-8	70%from 66%	+2.2	n=27
+ in September	12-7	63%from 66%	+2.2	n=19
+ at this venue	12-7	63%from 63%	+2.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 63%	+1.4	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.