How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Notre Dame — the basics
148 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 27-21 | 56% | +2.8 | n=48 |
| as a favorite | 72-51 | 59% | +4.0 | n=123 |
| spread 7.5-10.5 | 10-5 | 67% | +8.2 | n=15 |
| out of conference | 77-55 | 58% | +3.3 | n=132 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 85-62 | 58% | +3.5 | n=147 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 70-50 | 58% | +3.9 | n=120 |
| in October | 22-14 | 61% | +3.9 | n=36 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 43-23 | 65% | +6.4 | n=66 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Notre Dame — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +4.5 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 148 graded games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game | n=148 |
Notre Dame — combinations
108 lean Notre Dame · 0 lean against
Read this first. 116 combinations shown. The best one here is 77%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 37-14 | 73%from 58% | +8.8 | n=51 |
| as a favorite + spread 7.5-10.5 | 9-4 | 69%from 59% | +8.8 | n=13 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 69% | +8.8 | n=11 |
| + out of conference | 7-3 | 70%from 69% | +7.0 | n=10 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 6-2 | 75%from 70% | +6.6 | n=8 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 7-3 | 70%from 70% | +7.0 | n=10 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 69% | +8.8 | n=13 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 8-3 | 73%from 69% | +8.8 | n=11 |
| spread 7.5-10.5 + vs a P5 opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 67% | +8.0 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 69% | +4.7 | n=5 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 14-7 | 67%from 56% | +6.8 | n=21 |
| spread 7.5-10.5 + vs an FBS opponent | 10-5 | 67%from 67% | +8.2 | n=15 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 9-4 | 69%from 67% | +8.0 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 69% | +4.7 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 67% | +4.7 | n=5 |
| spread 7.5-10.5 + out of conference | 8-4 | 67%from 67% | +6.5 | n=12 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 7-3 | 70%from 67% | +6.0 | n=10 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 8-4 | 67%from 67% | +6.5 | n=12 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 7-3 | 70%from 67% | +6.0 | n=10 |
| as a favorite + in the last 5 seasons | 36-19 | 65%from 59% | +6.2 | n=55 |
| in October + in the last 5 seasons | 11-6 | 65%from 61% | +5.6 | n=17 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 42-23 | 65%from 58% | +6.4 | n=65 |
| out of conference + in the last 5 seasons | 38-22 | 63%from 58% | +6.0 | n=60 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in October | 19-11 | 63%from 58% | +4.0 | n=30 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-3 | 77%from 63% | +6.5 | n=13 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.