Houston at Texas TechTexas Tech -13.5o/u 54.5

ST Model Texas Tech -15.5(+2 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Houston — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

on the road	36-26	58%	+1.6	n=62
vs Texas Tech	1-5	17%	-10.6	n=6
as an underdog	30-23	57%	+1.4	n=53
spread 11-14	8-12	40%	-4.8	n=20
in a conference game	46-50	48%	-1.2	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	71-66	52%	-0.3	n=137
vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%	-1.2	n=48
vs the Big 12	16-17	48%	-3.0	n=33
in September	24-21	53%	+2.3	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	33-30	52%	+0.3	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Houston — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=144
Houston has covered 2 straight	n=2

Houston — combinations

81 lean Houston · 75 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 69%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
as an underdog + spread 11-14	4-2	67%from 57%	+3.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.8	n=6
spread 11-14 + in September	4-2	67%from 40%	+6.7	n=6
on the road + as an underdog	19-10	66%from 58%	+4.3	n=29
+ vs a P5 opponent	11-5	69%from 66%	+0.7	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-4	67%from 69%	-0.1	n=12
+ in September	5-3	63%from 69%	-0.6	n=8
+ vs the Big 12	8-5	62%from 69%	-2.6	n=13
+ vs an FBS opponent	19-10	66%from 66%	+4.3	n=29
+ vs a P5 opponent	11-5	69%from 66%	+0.7	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 66%	+4.1	n=17
+ vs the Big 12	8-5	62%from 66%	-2.6	n=13
+ in September	6-4	60%from 66%	+2.1	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 66%	+4.1	n=17
+ vs the Big 12	8-5	62%from 66%	-2.6	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-4	64%from 62%	-2.2	n=11
+ in September	2-3	40%from 62%	-10.0	n=5
+ in September	6-4	60%from 66%	+2.1	n=10
+ in a conference game	13-9	59%from 66%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-6	60%from 59%	+3.0	n=15
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-4	60%from 59%	-2.5	n=10
+ vs the Big 12	6-4	60%from 59%	-2.5	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	13-9	59%from 59%	+2.7	n=22
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	13-7	65%from 58%	+0.3	n=20
+ vs the Big 12	9-5	64%from 65%	-1.9	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-4	67%from 64%	-1.4	n=12
+ in September	2-3	40%from 64%	-10.0	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-6	60%from 65%	-0.5	n=15
+ in September	6-4	60%from 65%	-1.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 60%	-5.3	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Texas Tech — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

at home	39-30	57%	+0.7	n=69
vs Houston	5-1	83%	+10.6	n=6
as a favorite	38-31	55%	-0.4	n=69
spread 11-14	18-3	86%	+8.6	n=21
in a conference game	58-47	55%	-0.1	n=105
vs an FBS opponent	71-62	53%	+0.3	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	64-57	53%	-0.4	n=121
vs the Big 12	59-47	56%	+0.1	n=106
in September	23-17	57%	+2.8	n=40
at this venue	39-30	57%	+0.7	n=69
in the last 5 seasons	39-25	61%	+2.4	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Texas Tech — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +8.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=144

Texas Tech — combinations

295 lean Texas Tech · 0 lean against

Read this first. 314 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 9.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + spread 11-14	10-1	91%from 57%	+13.0	n=11
+ at this venue	10-1	91%from 91%	+13.0	n=11
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-1	90%from 91%	+11.0	n=10
+ at this venue	9-1	90%from 90%	+11.0	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-1	88%from 90%	+9.3	n=8
+ vs the Big 12	7-1	88%from 90%	+9.3	n=8
+ in a conference game	7-1	88%from 91%	+9.3	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
+ vs the Big 12	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-1	88%from 91%	+9.3	n=8
+ vs the Big 12	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
+ vs the Big 12	7-1	88%from 91%	+9.3	n=8
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
spread 11-14 + at this venue	10-1	91%from 86%	+13.0	n=11
spread 11-14 + in the last 5 seasons	9-1	90%from 86%	+10.7	n=10
spread 11-14 + vs a P5 opponent	15-2	88%from 86%	+7.4	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-0	100%from 88%	+11.0	n=8
+ vs the Big 12	15-2	88%from 88%	+7.4	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-0	100%from 88%	+11.0	n=8
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8
spread 11-14 + vs the Big 12	15-2	88%from 86%	+7.4	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-0	100%from 88%	+11.0	n=8
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 88%	+9.3	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.