Kansas State at Cincinnati—

ST Model Kansas State -1.6

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Kansas State — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

on the road	30-28	52%	+1.5	n=58
in a conference game	58-45	56%	+3.0	n=103
vs an FBS opponent	75-60	56%	+2.9	n=135
vs a P5 opponent	68-53	56%	+2.8	n=121
vs the Big 12	59-46	56%	+3.1	n=105
in September	22-18	55%	+2.1	n=40
in the last 5 seasons	34-29	54%	+3.0	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Kansas State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: +2.6 pts vs their number per game	n=144

Kansas State — combinations

53 lean Kansas State · 21 lean against

Read this first. 96 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in September + in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 55%	+2.9	n=19
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=44
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	30-23	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=53
vs the Big 12 + in the last 5 seasons	26-20	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=46
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	58-45	56%from 56%	+3.0	n=103
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=44
+ vs a P5 opponent	58-45	56%from 56%	+3.0	n=103
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=44
+ vs the Big 12	58-45	56%from 56%	+3.0	n=103
+ in September	6-6	50%from 56%	+0.7	n=12
+ vs the Big 12	58-45	56%from 56%	+3.0	n=103
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=44
+ in September	6-6	50%from 56%	+0.7	n=12
+ in September	6-6	50%from 56%	+0.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 50%	+1.7	n=6
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	58-45	56%from 56%	+3.0	n=103
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=44
+ vs the Big 12	58-45	56%from 56%	+3.0	n=103
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=44
+ in September	6-6	50%from 56%	+0.7	n=12
+ in September	6-6	50%from 56%	+0.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 50%	+1.7	n=6
in a conference game + vs the Big 12	58-45	56%from 56%	+3.0	n=103
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 56%	+3.9	n=44
+ in September	6-6	50%from 56%	+0.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 50%	+1.7	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Cincinnati — the basics

134 graded games since 2014

at home	30-38	44%	-0.6	n=68
in a conference game	38-52	42%	-1.3	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	56-71	44%	-1.5	n=127
vs a P5 opponent	21-26	45%	-2.2	n=47
vs the Big 12	9-16	36%	-4.6	n=25
in September	16-19	46%	+0.8	n=35
at this venue	27-36	43%	-0.2	n=63
in the last 5 seasons	24-36	40%	-1.9	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Cincinnati — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 134 graded games: -1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=134
Cincinnati has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

Cincinnati — combinations

9 lean Cincinnati · 100 lean against

Read this first. 119 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in September	8-5	62%from 45%	+3.4	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 62%	+7.1	n=8
in September + in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 46%	+6.0	n=16
at home + vs a P5 opponent	9-10	47%from 44%	-0.8	n=19
+ at this venue	9-10	47%from 47%	-0.8	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 47%	-2.2	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 47%	-2.2	n=15
+ vs the Big 12	5-8	38%from 47%	-2.7	n=13
+ at this venue	5-8	38%from 38%	-2.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-8	38%from 38%	-2.7	n=13
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	9-10	47%from 45%	-0.8	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 47%	-2.2	n=15
vs an FBS opponent + in September	14-16	47%from 44%	-0.6	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 47%	+3.5	n=13
+ at this venue	5-7	42%from 47%	-3.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 42%	+2.5	n=6
at home + vs an FBS opponent	28-33	46%from 44%	-0.6	n=61
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-10	47%from 46%	-0.8	n=19
+ at this venue	9-10	47%from 47%	-0.8	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 47%	-2.2	n=15
+ vs the Big 12	5-8	38%from 47%	-2.7	n=13
+ at this venue	25-31	45%from 46%	-0.1	n=56
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-16	41%from 45%	-1.5	n=27
+ in September	6-8	43%from 46%	-3.9	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 43%	+2.5	n=6
+ at this venue	5-7	42%from 43%	-3.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-16	41%from 46%	-1.5	n=27
+ vs the Big 12	5-8	38%from 46%	-2.7	n=13
+ at this venue	5-8	38%from 38%	-2.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-8	38%from 38%	-2.7	n=13

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.