UCF at Houston—

ST Model Houston -7.7

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

UCF — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

on the road	26-35	43%	-1.1	n=61
vs Houston	3-4	43%	-1.4	n=7
in a conference game	38-57	40%	-2.8	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	54-75	42%	-1.6	n=129
vs a P5 opponent	17-32	35%	-2.7	n=49
vs the Big 12	8-19	30%	-3.8	n=27
in October	21-22	49%	-1.4	n=43
in the last 5 seasons	26-38	41%	-1.5	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UCF — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=139
UCF has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

UCF — combinations

7 lean UCF · 75 lean against

Read this first. 96 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in October	13-9	59%from 43%	+0.3	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 59%	-5.0	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + in October	21-21	50%from 42%	-1.4	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 50%	-0.1	n=19
in a conference game + in October	20-20	50%from 40%	-1.3	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 50%	+0.6	n=18
in October + in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 49%	-0.1	n=19
vs a P5 opponent + in October	5-6	45%from 35%	-3.0	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 45%	-3.8	n=10
vs the Big 12 + in October	4-5	44%from 30%	-2.8	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 44%	-2.8	n=9
on the road + in a conference game	21-27	44%from 43%	-2.5	n=48
+ in October	13-8	62%from 44%	+0.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 62%	-4.1	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	21-27	44%from 44%	-2.5	n=48
+ in October	13-8	62%from 44%	+0.9	n=21
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-9	36%from 44%	-5.1	n=14
+ vs the Big 12	5-9	36%from 44%	-5.1	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-15	35%from 44%	-5.9	n=23
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-9	36%from 44%	-5.1	n=14
+ vs the Big 12	5-9	36%from 36%	-5.1	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-9	36%from 36%	-5.1	n=14
+ vs the Big 12	5-9	36%from 44%	-5.1	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-9	36%from 36%	-5.1	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-15	35%from 44%	-5.9	n=23

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Houston — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

at home	31-39	44%	-1.1	n=70
vs UCF	4-3	57%	+1.4	n=7
in a conference game	46-50	48%	-1.2	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	71-66	52%	-0.3	n=137
vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%	-1.2	n=48
vs the Big 12	16-17	48%	-3.0	n=33
in October	26-17	60%	+1.0	n=43
at this venue	31-38	45%	-0.9	n=69
in the last 5 seasons	33-30	52%	+0.3	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Houston — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=144
Houston has covered 2 straight	n=2

Houston — combinations

61 lean Houston · 76 lean against

Read this first. 166 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in October + in the last 5 seasons	12-5	71%from 60%	+5.5	n=17
vs the Big 12 + in October	7-3	70%from 48%	+2.7	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 70%	+4.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 80%	+4.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.7	n=10
vs a P5 opponent + in October	8-4	67%from 56%	+2.8	n=12
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 67%	+7.2	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 83%	+4.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 67%	+2.7	n=10
in a conference game + in October	25-16	61%from 48%	+0.9	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-5	71%from 61%	+5.5	n=17
+ at this venue	10-10	50%from 61%	+0.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 50%	+2.7	n=8
vs an FBS opponent + in October	26-17	60%from 52%	+1.0	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-5	71%from 60%	+5.5	n=17
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 60%	+1.2	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 52%	+2.7	n=8
vs UCF + in a conference game	4-3	57%from 57%	+1.4	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-3	57%from 57%	+1.4	n=7
vs UCF + vs an FBS opponent	4-3	57%from 57%	+1.4	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%from 52%	-1.2	n=48
+ in October	8-4	67%from 56%	+2.8	n=12
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 67%	+7.2	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 67%	+2.7	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-17	50%from 56%	-2.5	n=34
+ vs the Big 12	16-17	48%from 56%	-3.0	n=33
+ in October	7-3	70%from 48%	+2.7	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-15	48%from 48%	-3.5	n=29
+ at this venue	6-10	38%from 48%	-3.2	n=16
+ at this venue	8-10	44%from 56%	-0.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 44%	-2.7	n=15

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.