How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Cincinnati — the basics
134 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 25-32 | 44% | -1.5 | n=57 |
| in a conference game | 38-52 | 42% | -1.3 | n=90 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 56-71 | 44% | -1.5 | n=127 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 21-26 | 45% | -2.2 | n=47 |
| vs the Big 12 | 9-16 | 36% | -4.6 | n=25 |
| in October | 19-21 | 48% | +0.6 | n=40 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 24-36 | 40% | -1.9 | n=60 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Cincinnati — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -2.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 134 graded games: -1.4 pts vs their number per game | n=134 |
| Cincinnati has failed to cover 5 straight | n=5 |
Cincinnati — combinations
3 lean Cincinnati · 66 lean against
Read this first. 92 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs a P5 opponent + in October | 7-7 | 50%from 45% | -0.5 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 50% | -0.7 | n=11 |
| vs the Big 12 + in October | 5-5 | 50%from 36% | -1.6 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -1.6 | n=10 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in October | 19-21 | 48%from 44% | +0.6 | n=40 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-10 | 44%from 48% | -1.8 | n=18 |
| in a conference game + in October | 17-19 | 47%from 42% | +0.4 | n=36 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-10 | 41%from 47% | -2.4 | n=17 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent | 21-26 | 45%from 44% | -2.2 | n=47 |
| + in October | 7-7 | 50%from 45% | -0.5 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 50% | -0.7 | n=11 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-20 | 41%from 45% | -3.0 | n=34 |
| + vs the Big 12 | 9-16 | 36%from 45% | -4.6 | n=25 |
| + in October | 5-5 | 50%from 36% | -1.6 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-16 | 36%from 36% | -4.6 | n=25 |
| in October + in the last 5 seasons | 8-10 | 44%from 48% | -1.8 | n=18 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 25-32 | 44%from 44% | -1.5 | n=57 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-14 | 42%from 44% | -3.0 | n=24 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 9-13 | 41%from 44% | -3.6 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-9 | 44%from 41% | -3.1 | n=16 |
| + in October | 3-4 | 43%from 41% | -2.7 | n=7 |
| + vs the Big 12 | 4-8 | 33%from 41% | -6.7 | n=12 |
| + vs the Big 12 | 4-8 | 33%from 44% | -6.7 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-8 | 33%from 33% | -6.7 | n=12 |
| + in October | 6-13 | 32%from 44% | -1.8 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-6 | 33%from 32% | -4.3 | n=9 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.