Kansas at Kansas StateKansas State -8.5

ST Model Kansas State -3(-5.5 vs market)
Trends · 2026 week 7
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Kansas — the basics
135 graded games since 2014
on the road24-3739%-1.3n=61
vs Kansas State5-742%-5.1n=12
as an underdog45-5645%-0.8n=101
spread 7.5-10.57-944%-1.9n=16
in a conference game49-5448%-0.6n=103
vs an FBS opponent57-6945%-0.7n=126
vs a P5 opponent53-5947%-0.0n=112
vs the Big 1249-5448%-0.6n=103
in October20-2149%-1.1n=41
at this venue3-350%-2.8n=6
in the last 5 seasons28-3147%+0.5n=59
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Kansas — form & streaks
Last 12 games: -7.0 pts vs their number per gamen=12
All 135 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per gamen=135
Kansas — combinations
62 lean Kansas · 158 lean against
Read this first. 336 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsSample
spread 7.5-10.5 + in the last 5 seasons6-367%from 44%+2.3n=9
on the road + spread 7.5-10.55-363%from 39%+6.0n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons4-180%from 63%+11.8n=5
+ in a conference game4-267%from 63%+4.3n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent4-267%from 67%+4.3n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent4-267%from 67%+4.3n=6
+ vs the Big 124-267%from 67%+4.3n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent4-267%from 63%+4.3n=6
+ vs the Big 124-267%from 67%+4.3n=6
+ vs the Big 124-267%from 63%+4.3n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent5-363%from 63%+6.0n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons4-180%from 63%+11.8n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent4-267%from 63%+4.3n=6
+ vs the Big 124-267%from 63%+4.3n=6
spread 7.5-10.5 + in a conference game5-363%from 44%-0.6n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons4-267%from 63%+0.3n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent5-363%from 63%-0.6n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons4-267%from 63%+0.3n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent5-363%from 63%-0.6n=8
+ vs the Big 125-363%from 63%-0.6n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent5-363%from 63%-0.6n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons4-267%from 63%+0.3n=6
+ vs the Big 125-363%from 63%-0.6n=8
+ vs the Big 125-363%from 63%-0.6n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons4-267%from 63%+0.3n=6
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.