TCU at Baylor—

ST Model Baylor -0.5

Trends · 2026 week 7

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

TCU — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-32	46%	-1.5	n=59
vs Baylor	7-4	64%	+8.1	n=11
in a conference game	48-55	47%	-0.8	n=103
vs an FBS opponent	66-68	49%	-0.1	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	59-64	48%	-0.5	n=123
vs the Big 12	48-55	47%	-0.8	n=103
in October	20-24	45%	-1.8	n=44
at this venue	4-2	67%	+11.8	n=6
in the last 5 seasons	30-32	48%	-1.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

TCU — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=144
TCU has covered 3 straight	n=3

TCU — combinations

77 lean TCU · 90 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs Baylor	4-2	67%from 46%	+11.8	n=6
+ in a conference game	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs the Big 12	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs the Big 12	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs the Big 12	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs the Big 12	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+11.8	n=6
on the road + at this venue	4-2	67%from 46%	+11.8	n=6
vs Baylor + at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+11.8	n=6
in a conference game + at this venue	4-2	67%from 47%	+11.8	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	4-2	67%from 49%	+11.8	n=6
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	4-2	67%from 48%	+11.8	n=6
vs the Big 12 + at this venue	4-2	67%from 47%	+11.8	n=6
vs Baylor + in a conference game	7-4	64%from 64%	+8.1	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+8.1	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+8.1	n=11
+ vs the Big 12	7-4	64%from 64%	+8.1	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	+4.5	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-4	64%from 64%	+8.1	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+11.8	n=6
+ vs the Big 12	7-4	64%from 64%	+8.1	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	+4.5	n=5
+ vs the Big 12	7-4	64%from 64%	+8.1	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+11.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	+4.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 64%	+4.5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Baylor — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

at home	33-40	45%	-3.2	n=73
vs TCU	4-7	36%	-8.1	n=11
in a conference game	52-53	50%	-0.4	n=105
vs an FBS opponent	66-67	50%	-0.5	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	58-60	49%	-0.4	n=118
vs the Big 12	53-53	50%	-0.3	n=106
in October	16-21	43%	-1.4	n=37
at this venue	33-40	45%	-3.2	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	31-32	49%	-0.4	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Baylor — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=143
Baylor has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

Baylor — combinations

10 lean Baylor · 186 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 56%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in the last 5 seasons	17-16	52%from 45%	-1.6	n=33
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	17-16	52%from 45%	-1.6	n=33
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Big 12	53-53	50%from 50%	-0.3	n=106
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-24	49%from 50%	+0.5	n=47
+ at this venue	24-28	46%from 50%	-3.0	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-12	48%from 46%	-1.3	n=23
+ in October	15-21	42%from 50%	-1.6	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-9	44%from 42%	+0.4	n=16
+ at this venue	7-10	41%from 42%	-3.4	n=17
vs a P5 opponent + vs the Big 12	53-53	50%from 49%	-0.3	n=106
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-24	49%from 50%	+0.5	n=47
+ at this venue	24-28	46%from 50%	-3.0	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-12	48%from 46%	-1.3	n=23
+ in October	15-21	42%from 50%	-1.6	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-9	44%from 42%	+0.4	n=16
+ at this venue	7-10	41%from 42%	-3.4	n=17
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	52-53	50%from 50%	-0.4	n=105
+ vs a P5 opponent	52-53	50%from 50%	-0.4	n=105
+ vs the Big 12	52-53	50%from 50%	-0.4	n=105
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-24	48%from 50%	+0.5	n=46
+ at this venue	24-28	46%from 50%	-3.0	n=52
+ in October	15-21	42%from 50%	-1.6	n=36
+ vs the Big 12	52-53	50%from 50%	-0.4	n=105
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-24	48%from 50%	+0.5	n=46
+ at this venue	24-28	46%from 50%	-3.0	n=52
+ in October	15-21	42%from 50%	-1.6	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-24	48%from 50%	+0.5	n=46
+ at this venue	24-28	46%from 50%	-3.0	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-12	48%from 46%	-1.3	n=23
+ in October	15-21	42%from 50%	-1.6	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-9	44%from 42%	+0.4	n=16
+ at this venue	7-10	41%from 42%	-3.4	n=17

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.