BYU at UCF—

ST Model BYU -11.6

Trends · 2026 week 8

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

BYU — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

on the road	37-27	58%	+3.3	n=64
in a conference game	14-14	50%	+1.6	n=28
vs an FBS opponent	72-67	52%	+1.5	n=139
vs a P5 opponent	41-36	53%	+1.5	n=77
vs the Big 12	18-14	56%	+4.0	n=32
in October	20-24	45%	-1.9	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	32-30	52%	+1.6	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

BYU — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: +1.7 pts vs their number per game	n=147

BYU — combinations

33 lean BYU · 34 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	37-27	58%from 58%	+3.3	n=64
+ vs a P5 opponent	20-17	54%from 58%	+1.9	n=37
+ vs the Big 12	7-9	44%from 54%	+1.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-13	41%from 54%	-1.8	n=22
+ in October	4-6	40%from 54%	-2.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-14	50%from 58%	+0.6	n=28
+ vs the Big 12	7-9	44%from 58%	+1.4	n=16
+ in October	3-3	50%from 44%	-1.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 44%	-1.1	n=15
+ in October	7-10	41%from 58%	-2.9	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 41%	-4.3	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Big 12	18-14	56%from 52%	+4.0	n=32
+ in October	6-5	55%from 56%	+1.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 56%	+2.9	n=30
vs a P5 opponent + vs the Big 12	18-14	56%from 53%	+4.0	n=32
+ in October	6-5	55%from 56%	+1.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-14	53%from 56%	+2.9	n=30
vs the Big 12 + in October	6-5	55%from 56%	+1.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.9	n=11
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	20-17	54%from 58%	+1.9	n=37
+ vs the Big 12	7-9	44%from 54%	+1.4	n=16
+ in October	3-3	50%from 44%	-1.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 44%	-1.1	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-13	41%from 54%	-1.8	n=22
+ in October	4-6	40%from 54%	-2.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 40%	-5.6	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

UCF — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

at home	33-38	46%	-0.8	n=71
in a conference game	38-57	40%	-2.8	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	54-75	42%	-1.6	n=129
vs a P5 opponent	17-32	35%	-2.7	n=49
vs the Big 12	8-19	30%	-3.8	n=27
in October	21-22	49%	-1.4	n=43
at this venue	33-37	47%	-0.7	n=70
in the last 5 seasons	26-38	41%	-1.5	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UCF — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=139
UCF has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

UCF — combinations

0 lean UCF · 142 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in October	21-21	50%from 42%	-1.4	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 50%	-0.1	n=19
+ at this venue	8-12	40%from 50%	-3.2	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 40%	+4.4	n=10
in a conference game + in October	20-20	50%from 40%	-1.3	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 50%	+0.6	n=18
+ at this venue	7-12	37%from 50%	-3.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 37%	+4.4	n=10
in October + in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 49%	-0.1	n=19
at home + at this venue	33-37	47%from 46%	-0.7	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-18	47%from 47%	+1.8	n=34
at home + in the last 5 seasons	16-18	47%from 46%	+1.8	n=34
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	16-18	47%from 47%	+1.8	n=34
vs a P5 opponent + in October	5-6	45%from 35%	-3.0	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 45%	-3.8	n=10
+ at this venue	2-4	33%from 45%	-2.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 33%	-4.2	n=5
vs the Big 12 + in October	4-5	44%from 30%	-2.8	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 44%	-2.8	n=9
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 44%	-4.2	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 20%	-4.2	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	25-35	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=60
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-18	38%from 42%	+0.3	n=29
at home + vs an FBS opponent	25-36	41%from 46%	-1.9	n=61
+ at this venue	25-35	42%from 41%	-1.7	n=60
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-18	38%from 42%	+0.3	n=29
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-12	40%from 41%	-0.6	n=20
+ at this venue	8-12	40%from 40%	-0.6	n=20
+ in October	2-4	33%from 40%	-2.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 40%	-1.6	n=17
+ vs the Big 12	3-10	23%from 40%	-2.4	n=13
+ in October	8-12	40%from 41%	-3.2	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 40%	+4.4	n=10
+ at this venue	8-12	40%from 40%	-3.2	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-18	38%from 41%	+0.3	n=29
+ vs the Big 12	3-10	23%from 41%	-2.4	n=13
+ at this venue	3-10	23%from 23%	-2.4	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-10	23%from 23%	-2.4	n=13
+ in October	1-4	20%from 23%	-4.2	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.