Cincinnati at Iowa State—

ST Model Iowa State -8

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Cincinnati — the basics

134 graded games since 2014

on the road	25-32	44%	-1.5	n=57
in a conference game	38-52	42%	-1.3	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	56-71	44%	-1.5	n=127
vs a P5 opponent	21-26	45%	-2.2	n=47
vs the Big 12	9-16	36%	-4.6	n=25
in November	17-28	38%	-3.1	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	24-36	40%	-1.9	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Cincinnati — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 134 graded games: -1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=134
Cincinnati has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

Cincinnati — combinations

0 lean Cincinnati · 91 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 45%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 58% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in November	10-12	45%from 44%	-4.4	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 45%	-7.4	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	21-26	45%from 44%	-2.2	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-20	41%from 45%	-3.0	n=34
+ vs the Big 12	9-16	36%from 45%	-4.6	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-16	36%from 36%	-4.6	n=25
+ in November	2-10	17%from 36%	-11.0	n=12
+ in November	2-11	15%from 45%	-10.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-10	17%from 15%	-11.0	n=12
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	25-32	44%from 44%	-1.5	n=57
+ in November	10-12	45%from 44%	-4.4	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 45%	-7.4	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-14	42%from 44%	-3.0	n=24
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-13	41%from 44%	-3.6	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-9	44%from 41%	-3.1	n=16
+ vs the Big 12	4-8	33%from 41%	-6.7	n=12
+ in November	1-5	17%from 41%	-11.8	n=6
+ vs the Big 12	4-8	33%from 44%	-6.7	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-8	33%from 33%	-6.7	n=12
+ in November	1-5	17%from 33%	-11.8	n=6
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	38-52	42%from 42%	-1.3	n=90
+ in November	17-27	39%from 42%	-3.0	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-15	25%from 39%	-6.6	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-26	37%from 42%	-3.3	n=41
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-16	36%from 42%	-4.6	n=25
+ vs the Big 12	9-16	36%from 36%	-4.6	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-16	36%from 36%	-4.6	n=25
+ in November	2-10	17%from 36%	-11.0	n=12
+ vs the Big 12	9-16	36%from 42%	-4.6	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-16	36%from 36%	-4.6	n=25
+ in November	2-10	17%from 36%	-11.0	n=12

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Iowa State — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

at home	42-33	56%	+3.1	n=75
in a conference game	58-49	54%	+2.3	n=107
vs an FBS opponent	74-62	54%	+2.0	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	66-56	54%	+1.8	n=122
vs the Big 12	58-49	54%	+2.3	n=107
in November	19-26	42%	-0.5	n=45
at this venue	42-32	57%	+3.4	n=74
in the last 5 seasons	29-33	47%	+0.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Iowa State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +1.6 pts vs their number per game	n=146

Iowa State — combinations

68 lean Iowa State · 72 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in a conference game	31-21	60%from 56%	+4.9	n=52
+ vs an FBS opponent	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ vs a P5 opponent	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ vs the Big 12	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ at this venue	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 60%	+2.6	n=21
+ in November	10-13	43%from 60%	+2.0	n=23
+ vs a P5 opponent	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ vs the Big 12	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ at this venue	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 60%	+2.6	n=21
+ in November	10-13	43%from 60%	+2.0	n=23
+ vs the Big 12	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ at this venue	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 60%	+2.6	n=21
+ in November	10-13	43%from 60%	+2.0	n=23
+ at this venue	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 60%	+2.6	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 60%	+2.6	n=21
+ in November	10-13	43%from 60%	+2.0	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 43%	+2.9	n=10
+ at this venue	10-13	43%from 43%	+2.0	n=23
at home + vs the Big 12	31-21	60%from 56%	+4.9	n=52
+ at this venue	31-21	60%from 60%	+4.9	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 60%	+2.6	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 60%	+2.6	n=21
+ in November	10-13	43%from 60%	+2.0	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 43%	+2.9	n=10
+ at this venue	10-13	43%from 43%	+2.0	n=23

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.