Iowa State at UCF—

ST Model Iowa State -4.6

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Iowa State — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

on the road	32-30	52%	+0.7	n=62
in a conference game	58-49	54%	+2.3	n=107
vs an FBS opponent	74-62	54%	+2.0	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	66-56	54%	+1.8	n=122
vs the Big 12	58-49	54%	+2.3	n=107
in November	19-26	42%	-0.5	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	29-33	47%	+0.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Iowa State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +1.6 pts vs their number per game	n=146

Iowa State — combinations

25 lean Iowa State · 66 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 54%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	58-49	54%from 54%	+2.3	n=107
+ vs a P5 opponent	58-49	54%from 54%	+2.3	n=107
+ vs the Big 12	58-49	54%from 54%	+2.3	n=107
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-24	47%from 54%	+0.2	n=45
+ in November	19-26	42%from 54%	-0.5	n=45
+ vs the Big 12	58-49	54%from 54%	+2.3	n=107
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-24	47%from 54%	+0.2	n=45
+ in November	19-26	42%from 54%	-0.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-24	47%from 54%	+0.2	n=45
+ in November	19-26	42%from 54%	-0.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 42%	-0.4	n=20
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	58-49	54%from 54%	+2.3	n=107
+ vs the Big 12	58-49	54%from 54%	+2.3	n=107
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-24	47%from 54%	+0.2	n=45
+ in November	19-26	42%from 54%	-0.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-24	47%from 54%	+0.2	n=45
+ in November	19-26	42%from 54%	-0.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 42%	-0.4	n=20
in a conference game + vs the Big 12	58-49	54%from 54%	+2.3	n=107
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-24	47%from 54%	+0.2	n=45
+ in November	19-26	42%from 54%	-0.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 42%	-0.4	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Big 12	58-49	54%from 54%	+2.3	n=107
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-24	47%from 54%	+0.2	n=45
+ in November	19-26	42%from 54%	-0.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 42%	-0.4	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

UCF — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

at home	33-38	46%	-0.8	n=71
in a conference game	38-57	40%	-2.8	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	54-75	42%	-1.6	n=129
vs a P5 opponent	17-32	35%	-2.7	n=49
vs the Big 12	8-19	30%	-3.8	n=27
in November	15-30	33%	-3.7	n=45
at this venue	33-37	47%	-0.7	n=70
in the last 5 seasons	26-38	41%	-1.5	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UCF — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=139
UCF has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

UCF — combinations

0 lean UCF · 154 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 47%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 57% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + at this venue	33-37	47%from 46%	-0.7	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-18	47%from 47%	+1.8	n=34
at home + in the last 5 seasons	16-18	47%from 46%	+1.8	n=34
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	16-18	47%from 47%	+1.8	n=34
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	25-35	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=60
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-18	38%from 42%	+0.3	n=29
at home + vs an FBS opponent	25-36	41%from 46%	-1.9	n=61
+ at this venue	25-35	42%from 41%	-1.7	n=60
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-18	38%from 42%	+0.3	n=29
+ in November	10-15	40%from 41%	-1.4	n=25
+ at this venue	10-15	40%from 40%	-1.4	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-7	30%from 40%	+0.3	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-12	40%from 41%	-0.6	n=20
+ in November	3-4	43%from 40%	+6.2	n=7
+ at this venue	8-12	40%from 40%	-0.6	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 40%	-1.6	n=17
+ vs the Big 12	3-10	23%from 40%	-2.4	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-18	38%from 41%	+0.3	n=29
+ vs the Big 12	3-10	23%from 41%	-2.4	n=13
+ in November	2-4	33%from 23%	+6.9	n=6
+ at this venue	3-10	23%from 23%	-2.4	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-10	23%from 23%	-2.4	n=13
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	38-57	40%from 40%	-2.8	n=95
+ at this venue	17-30	36%from 40%	-3.0	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-14	33%from 36%	-0.4	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-29	34%from 40%	-3.2	n=44
+ in November	14-30	32%from 40%	-3.9	n=44
+ at this venue	9-15	38%from 32%	-1.5	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-15	25%from 32%	-3.9	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-19	30%from 40%	-3.8	n=27
+ vs the Big 12	8-19	30%from 30%	-3.8	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-19	30%from 30%	-3.8	n=27
+ in November	3-10	23%from 30%	-1.1	n=13
+ at this venue	3-10	23%from 30%	-2.4	n=13
+ vs the Big 12	8-19	30%from 40%	-3.8	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-19	30%from 30%	-3.8	n=27
+ in November	3-10	23%from 30%	-1.1	n=13
+ at this venue	3-10	23%from 30%	-2.4	n=13

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.